Looming Jet Fuel Shortages?

[Quickstatus]

it’s about government action in the event major disruption.

However, the action is going to be very different when the issue is a fuel shortage or potential fuel shortage

 

[LionKing]

However, the action is going to be very different when the issue is a fuel shortage or potential fuel shortage

I think despite the loud noise from media about 'We are running out of fuel', it seems the government is handling it reasonably well, but the supply is currently secured on a month by month basis.

First we were thinking fuel shortage after Easter, then late April, and now we are into May.

Perhaps in May we can hear they are secured in June and so forth. So I think unless we start to see substantial fall on fuel reserve otherwise I think there's nothing to worried about other than cost of living right now.

 

[LionKing]

That sounds very class conscious.

People in Y have just as many rights to travel as anyone else.

Budget airlines generally have higher passenger loads and less luggage and I would think are a more efficient use of fuel if we need to conserve fuel.

Regrettably, I don't think successful and important people would like to travel with someone who like to put their bare feet beside me, or get drunk or being erratic enough to disrupt my next important conference somewhere.

I do believe if fuel levels get to that bare, perhaps getting more people on the same plane would save fuel, maybe then we should also work from home to save even more fuel and avoid unnecessary travels.

I have noticed that during these 2 weeks there're a lot less cars on the streets than before Easter, and I thought that would be because of School Holidays. I would suggest in the event of fuel crisis, we should stop in person school and university attendance which would significantly reduce fuel use in our country.

 

[Warragul]

Regrettably, I don't think successful and important people would like to travel with someone who like to put their bare feet beside me, or get drunk or being erratic enough to disrupt my next important conference somewhere.

Sometimes they are one and the same.
Successful and important but what measure? Being in the pointy end.?Pfft.

 

[elanshin]

I think despite the loud noise from media about 'We are running out of fuel', it seems the government is handling it reasonably well, but the supply is currently secured on a month by month basis.

First we were thinking fuel shortage after Easter, then late April, and now we are into May.

Perhaps in May we can hear they are secured in June and so forth. So I think unless we start to see substantial fall on fuel reserve otherwise I think there's nothing to worried about other than cost of living right now.

Yes - in a crisis situation, you can only really do short term forecasting. The real debate and longer term question (has nothing to do with the current situation) is why were we at such low numbers to begin with and what we can do to rectify that over the next decade.

But in the short term, everything is basically worked on in a short term span because honestly this is a supply shock that we have no idea when it'll end. It could be tomorrrow, it could be next week, a month, 6 month or year+.

I suspect on the Jetfuel side of the equation, we'll see some of the poorer countries having problems before the most advanced economies really start struggling. Capacity cuts and such are more likely reflecting profitability with increased costs right now more than actual shortages today.

I have noticed that during these 2 weeks there're a lot less cars on the streets than before Easter, and I thought that would be because of School Holidays. I would suggest in the event of fuel crisis, we should stop in person school and university attendance which would significantly reduce fuel use in our country.

You'll find a lot more other problems when about half of the working economy loses their daycare. School holidays are hell for some parents as they have to juggle kids at home and still working.

 

[elanshin]

It's also interesting to see how different airlines and different markets play things out. On one end you have budget carriers cancelling reducing flights. On the other you have sub $600 Economy RT fares on CZ from SYD - TYO via CAN. (I get the feeling Chinese carriers aren't feeling any fuel squeeze ...)

 

[RSD]

It's also interesting to see how different airlines and different markets play things out. On one end you have budget carriers cancelling reducing flights. On the other you have sub $600 Economy RT fares on CZ from SYD - TYO via CAN. (I get the feeling Chinese carriers aren't feeling any fuel squeeze ...)

Probably not at their home ports anyway...

Chinese carriers to Europe in Y are about $2500 cheaper than QF for travel out late May and returning mid-June.

 

[clifford]

China has been smart in relation to fuel, but Australia has been asleep at the wheel.

 

[Saab34]

Large fire currently underway at the Geelong Refinery.

 

[RSD]

Large fire currently underway at the Geelong Refinery.

Very very large fire at the Geelong Refinery - still raging out of control five hours after it started - unlikely that refinery will be doing much refining for quite some time...

 

[Saab34]

Seems to be the AVGAS part, according to 7, Australia produces 100% of our AVGAS.

 

[PineappleSkip]

Report in ABC today

Fire Rescue Victoria (FRV) was called to the Viva Energy Refinery at 11:05pm following multiple reports of "explosions and flames".

FRV Assistant Chief Fire Officer Michael McGuinness said the fire started in the "mogas" section of the plant where motor gasoline was produced.

I presume Mogas is referring to petrol?

 

[jrfsp]

Report in ABC today


I presume Mogas is referring to petrol?

Yes (Motor gasoline)

Cannot be a coincidental event surely….

 

[markis10]

Very very large fire at the Geelong Refinery - still raging out of control five hours after it started - unlikely that refinery will be doing much refining for quite some time...

Alarmist and speculative post that is completely inaccurate, production is not affected by the fire but is currently reduced as a precaution.. It’s the result of an equipment failure (faulty valve) in the transfer area.

 

[Saab34]

Alarmist and speculative post that is completely inaccurate, production is not affected by the fire but is currently reduced as a precaution.. It’s the result of an equipment failure (faulty valve) in the transfer area.

The media have been shocking this morning in trying to push an alarmist angle, or create one might I say.

All have basically been trying to put words in the mouth of those being interviewed, with alarmist like trash that the fuel pipeline has now been cut off completely. Thankfully those executives and authorities didn’t buy it and answered responsibly.

 

[elanshin]

I imagine as of right now damage assessment is still occuring so we won't really know the real impact just yet. We'll probably know the answer by the end of the day though.

 

[SYD]

I imagine as of right now damage assessment is still occuring so we won't really know the real impact just yet. We'll probably know the answer by the end of the day though.

Reporting that they’re still producing aviation and diesel fuels (at a reduced rate as a safety precaution).

Petrol seems to be the immediate impact for now.

 

[Pushka]

Reporting that they’re still producing aviation and diesel fuels (at a reduced rate as a safety precaution).

Petrol seems to be the immediate impact for now.

And I heard it was the premium fuel only. My car only takes 95+. Cannot find 95+ anywhere even before this war, and RAA fuel app is wrongly showing it's available. It wasn't. So I have to fill with 98.

I just wish there was a news information space that wasn't hyperbole nor political. It seems to be a unicorn.

 

[RSD]

I imagine as of right now damage assessment is still occuring so we won't really know the real impact just yet. We'll probably know the answer by the end of the day though.

Will take a couple of days to assess it to see what if any workarounds can be done. Part of the investigation will be to find out what exactly leaked and why, and how the vapours or gas found an ignition source/where the ignition source was. About 20 years ago there was a massive fire at an oil storage terminal in the U.K. after a tank was overfilled - staff saw a vapour cloud moving across the ground and hit the emergency alarm - when they did the investigation they found that when the emergency alarm was hit that started the fire pumps and the fire pumps starting was the ignition source that ignited the vapour cloud. Laws of unintended consequences etc etc...

I was part of a team investigating an ignition of ethanol from a leaking pump, what we found was that the pump was from about 1940 when the facility was built and the manufacturer had long ago ceased to exist, and so maintenance were making their own packings for the pump whenever it was rebuilt, and they had installed the wrong number of packings in the pump which allowed it to leak and the ethanol to subsequently ignite. Geelong Refinery dates from the 1950's and it probably still has a lot of old equipment in use there.

 

[Quickstatus]

Geelong Refinery dates from the 1950's

While it has had regular maintenance, running it flat chat is going to be problematic for a 70 year old plant. At least the fire has been put out
In particular the part of the refinery affected was involved in LPG and non sniffing petrol but overall the plant is operating at reduced capacity.
The CEO said that any reduction in production can be made up with fuel imports