Lionair 610 crash

[Must...Fly!]

Actually it's a normal response to a problem. Level off, and point the aircraft in a safe direction. Sort the issue out and land.



If you look at the FR24 data (Flightradar24 Data Regarding Lion Air Flight JT610 – Flightradar24 Blog), it's not all that steady at all. If you compare the trace with that of the same flight the previous day, it starts to diverge very shortly after take off, with excursions in both speed and altitude (and rate, which would indicate pitch excursions).

At the end (and assuming the FR data is correct), he's doing 30,000 feet per minute vertically. That's the sort of thing you'd expect if the tail fell off (which, by the way, I'm not suggesting). I don't understand any of this, given the information we have so far.

Very useful info jb, I had not seen that. The report the crew were rather experienced adds to the mystery. A tragedy none the less...

 

[Saab34]

I’m not sure how these confidential pieces of info seem to leak but according to another site the same aircraft had issues the day before.

JB not sure on your view but a diversion would have probably been in order?

O: Airspeed unreliable and alt disagree shown after take off. STS was also running to the wrong direction, suspected because of speed difference. Identified that CAPT instrument was unreliable and handover control to FO. Continue NNC of Airspeed Unreliable and ALT disagree. Decide to continue flying to CGK at FL280, landed safely rwy 25L

 

[moa999]

From airliners

This a reportedly a filed incident report for the same aircraft from Yesterday

A: PK LQP, B737 Max 8

D: 28.10.2018

O: Airspeed unreliable and alt disagree shown after take off. STS was also running to the wrong direction, suspected because of speed difference. Identified that CAPT instrument was unreliable and handover control to FO. Continue NNC of Airspeed Unreliable and ALT disagree. Decide to continue flying to CGK at FL280, landed safely rwy 25L

R: DPS CGK LNI 043

E: AFML

R: Capt William Martinus/133031, FO M Fulki Naufan/ 144291

 

[jb747]

I’m not sure how these confidential pieces of info seem to leak but according to another site the same aircraft had issues the day before.

JB not sure on your view but a diversion would have probably been in order?

We need more context. Completion of the checklist would probably bring back the Captain's instrumentation. I don't know the 737, but would assume that it has a triplicated air data system, so loss of one system isn't an issue at all. Avinsight will probably know more about this.

Diversion. Depends upon the weather, but sometimes the simple solution of going to destination takes some of the difficulty away. So, no answer, one way or the other.

 

[AviatorInsight]

I’m not sure how these confidential pieces of info seem to leak but according to another site the same aircraft had issues the day before.

JB not sure on your view but a diversion would have probably been in order?

The checklist doesn’t “bring back” any instrumentation as it can’t be reset in flight. Rather it identifies which instrument if the faulty one. So the Captain’s was determined to be faulty and then handed over to the FO whose was working(?).

The ALT Disagree caution shows up on both PFDs when there’s a discrepancy of more than 200ft for 5sec. The standby is always available as it’s independent of the other two and the aircraft can then no longer fly in RVSM airspace (FL290-410).

As for the diversion, the checklist doesn’t mention land at nearest suitable airport as the aircraft can still be controllable and the RA will also be an accurate instrument below 2500ft (think Aeroperu 603). It just requires a lot more crew coordination. So depending on where they were/services available, ILS, familiarity etc, it may have made more sense to continue.

As for this accident however, I would just be speculating at the moment.

 

[davidj]

The report the crew were rather experienced adds to the mystery.

Experience doesn't necessarily mean anything. With some of the Indo crew I wouldn't want them pushing a shopping trolley past my local woollies, let alone command an aircraft.

nearest suitable airport

They were 15 minutes out. They were likely trying to stabilise the aircraft before returning.

 

[Quickstatus]

At the end (and assuming the FR data is correct), he's doing 30,000 feet per minute vertically. That's the sort of thing you'd expect if the tail fell off (which, by the way, I'm not suggesting). I don't understand any of this, given the information we have so far.

AF477 high altitude stall resulted in a 38000ft descent in 3.5 min. But the aircraft was 15deg pitch up when it contacted the ocean - more or less a belly flop

QZ8501 also had a high altitude stall and descended at a average rate of 12000 ft per minute while wings level and zero pitch.

(Not suggesting this one was not a stall - actually not suggesting anything)

 

[AviatorInsight]

Airspeed unreliable and alt disagree shown after take off...Decide to continue flying to CGK at FL280, landed safely rwy 25L

R: DPS CGK...

They were 15 minutes out. They were likely trying to stabilise the aircraft before returning.

Unless I’m missing something they departed DPS for CGK which is a 1hr 50min flight?

 

[Must...Fly!]

Unless I’m missing something they departed DPS for CGK which is a 1hr 50min flight?

Jakarta for Pankal Pinang. The above post references a flight from yesterday (Sunday) where it's alleged there was an issue with the airspeed/altimeter indications

 

[pauly7]

DFAT isn't waiting for an investigation:

Following the fatal crash of a Lion Air plane on 29 October 2018, Australian government officials and contractors have been instructed not to fly on Lion Air. This decision will be reviewed when the findings of the crash investigation are clear (see Local travel).​

Smartraveller.gov.au - Indonesia​

Awfully sad news.

Lion Air have been on our corporate DNF list since.... forever as far as I can tell so I’m a bit surprised AU Gov were ever allowed on them...

 

[Melburnian1]

DFAT has an approved list of airlines for travel.

Its instruction seems separate to that.

Remember Lion Air at one time formed Lion Air Australia and was to be the next big operator in Oz, but apart from minor Batik Air its ambitions faded away.

Any loss of life is troubling but given its population of c. 300 million, air travel in Indonesia must still be safer than inter-island sea travel.

 

[browski]

For real Business Travellers, there is no such thing as a DNF list; that would just be silly and impractical. You just take what is on offer and get on with it.
Here are the non-stop options from KUL-DEL:

• Air Asia
• Malindo (Lion) Air
• Malaysia Airlines

Throw a dart at the board and pick a winner.
Before, you reply that "I won't take any of them and at least I will still be alive", just understand that the road warriors have already rolled their eyes.

 

[moa999]

Lion Group has a 60% domestic share within Indonesia (it's demolished Garuda in recent years, like Air Asia has done with Malaysian) - hard to avoid on some routes

 

[Saab34]

Fairly disturbing that maintenance logs with what should have been confidential information have been released and are all over the web now a matter of hours after the incident occurred.

 

[Must...Fly!]

For real Business Travellers, there is no such thing as a DNF list; that would just be silly and impractical. You just take what is on offer and get on with it.
Here are the non-stop options from KUL-DEL:

• Air Asia
• Malindo (Lion) Air
• Malaysia Airlines

Throw a dart at the board and pick a winner.
Before, you reply that "I won't take any of them and at least I will still be alive", just understand that the road warriors have already rolled their eyes.

MH every time, no contest...

 

[Quickstatus]

For real Business Travellers, there is no such thing as a DNF list; that would just be silly and impractical. You just take what is on offer and get on with it.
Here are the non-stop options from KUL-DEL:

• Air Asia
• Malindo (Lion) Air
• Malaysia Airlines

Throw a dart at the board and pick a winner.
Before, you reply that "I won't take any of them and at least I will still be alive", just understand that the road warriors have already rolled their eyes.

Don’t need to throw a dart. Would choose MH

 

[jb747]

The checklist doesn’t “bring back” any instrumentation as it can’t be reset in flight. Rather it identifies which instrument if the faulty one. So the Captain’s was determined to be faulty and then handed over to the FO whose was working(?).

That implies that the 737 (even the Max?) has only two ADCs. The 767, 747, 380 all have three, so it’s certainly possible to switch instrument sources in those aircraft. ADC failures are sufficiently common that I’m very surprised that two would still be acceptable to the regulators. Grandfathering perhaps.

 

[AviatorInsight]

Jakarta for Pankal Pinang. The above post references a flight from yesterday (Sunday) where it's alleged there was an issue with the airspeed/altimeter indications

Which is where my decision for a diversion came into play, the Sunday incident not the accident. We don't know enough of what happened yet to be making assumptions.

 

[AviatorInsight]

That implies that the 737 (even the Max?) has only two ADCs. The 767, 747, 380 all have three, so it’s certainly possible to switch instrument sources in those aircraft. ADC failures are sufficiently common that I’m very surprised that two would still be acceptable to the regulators. Grandfathering perhaps.

That's correct only two. There's only so much that can change before it no longer becomes a common type endorsement. The FAA have allowed a few changes to the max-10 even gone as far as changing the landing gear to fit into the existing holes (looks like an FA-18 bogey). As far as instrumentation goes, the obvious change is the 787 like screens. But there's still no EICAS and the same overhead panel. As far as I'm aware, that's as far as the FAA will allow Boeing to go. So the next variants of 737 may require a new type endorsement or at least some sort of conversion course for current pilots.

 

[flyer89]

So the next variants of 737 may require a new type endorsement or at least some sort of conversion course for current pilots.

So there’s no differences course at all for the MAX if you are already NG rated?