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Large Air Tanker crashes in NSW

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Large Air Tanker crashes while fighting bushfire in NSW, ABC understands

Helicopters currently inspecting the area. Apparently the aircraft involved is a C-130 Hercules. Hoping somehow the crew are OK...
 
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Quickstatus

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What is he Stall speed of a C130 carrying 15T payload plus fuel?. Google reckons lts about 185kmh but that may be the minimum with no payload.
The speeds below are Ground speed.
It descended 350 metres (1150feet) in 2 minutes

Not much remain of the wreckage - just the tail - the rest is obliterated.


Screenshot 2020-01-24 13.02.49.png Screenshot 2020-01-24 13.03.07.png Screenshot 2020-01-24 13.03.20.png
 
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jb747

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What is he Stall speed of a C130 carrying 15T payload plus fuel?. Google reckons lts about 185kmh but that may be the minimum with no payload.
The speeds below are Ground speed.
It descended 350 metres (1150feet) in 2 minutes
People forget that this is not an airline, or even Air Force, operation. This sort of flying is possibly the most dangerous job that there is, short of having someone shooting at you.

A C130 stall speed will vary with the amount of flap. The low speeds would imply at least some flap is extended. The stall speed would probably be somewhere in the 95 to 105 knot area.

The sink rate you refer to, 1150 feet in 2 minutes is nothing of note. You all see about 1400 feet in two minutes each time you fly on an airliner, doing a normal approach (700 fpm to the flare is normal).

There isn't enough information around to even reasonably guess.


Thu 13:08:18 -35.9890149.3962↑ 343° 132 1,646 -293
Descending
Aus ATC (RADAR)
Thu 13:08:28 -35.9849149.3906↑ 343° 133 1,615-73
Descending
Aus ATC (RADAR)
Thu 13:08:43 -35.9837149.3775↑ 343° 132 1,615
Level
Aus ATC (RADAR)
Thu 13:08:58 -35.9962149.3699↙ 205° 154 1,615
Level
Aus ATC (RADAR)

The above is the last set of numbers from Flightaware. The data readings are coarse, with time intervals of 10 seconds and 15 seconds. The only thing of note, is that the last reading shows a course change of 138º, in 15 seconds.

Assuming those numbers are accurate (a big assumption), that gives some information about the final turn. Basically, to turn that far, in 15 seconds, with a 132 knot entry, you'd need 50º angle of bank, you'd pull 1.6g, and your stall speed would increase to about 120 knots.
 

RSD

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For info I believe that it had already dropped its load of retardant
 

Quickstatus

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Looks like it entered the right turn in a very low visibility area and at low altitude. No spare altitude to recover?
Stall?
Some other kind of malfunction?
Loss of situational awareness + turn = loss of altitude conducting the turn?
 

jb747

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Looks like it entered the right turn in a very low visibility area and at low altitude. No spare altitude to recover?
Stall?
The last clear shot of the aircraft shows a definite up pitch as well as some left roll. Nothing untoward in that. I see no reason to be worried about stalling. These people were used to this operation and speeds. Whilst stalls are something that most pilots stay well clear of, some elements of aviation live on the edge of them.

Some other kind of malfunction?
Perhaps, nothing in the video to make one think so though.

Loss of situational awareness + turn = loss of altitude conducting the turn?
Again possible, but that's one of the inherent traps of this sort of operation. So, it would be something I'd expect them to be well able to counter.

The terrain was more level than I'd expected, so I think you can rule that out too.
 

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