Impacts of Covid-19 pandemic on domestic travel

[Tropic]

What are possible effects of Corona virus national emergency response plan on domestic travel?

Australian Health Sector Emergency Response Plan for Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)

The Australian Health Sector Emergency Response Plan for Novel Coronavirus (the COVID-19 Plan) guides the Australian health sector response.

www.health.gov.au

 

[Jenya]

There is nothing in this plan regarding suspension of domestic/intl flights on any stage. Scary.

 

[drron]

An article from the Chinese CDC about Covid-19 with a comparison to SARS.It is much worse than the SARS epidemic.

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China—Summary of a China CDC Report

This Viewpoint summarizes key epidemiologic and clinical findings from all cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) reported through February 11, 2020, in mainland China, and case trends in response to government attempts to control and contain the infection.

jamanetwork.com

And an American study

'Stealth Transmission' Fuels Fast Spread of Coronavirus Outbreak

Researchers found that the rapid spread of the coronavirus outbreak in China was the result of stealth transmission. Read more about their findings.

www.mailman.columbia.edu

 

[Tropic]

Yep the existence of asymptomatic carriers means the symptom based testing-detection-isolation-quarantine infectious disease control paradigm was never going to work... SG has made an exemplary effort though assisted by its size and general societal conformance.

 

[Tropic]

What is interesting is the variance in the severity of symptoms between infected individuals and what effect age, geography/climate, Immunosuppression, prior resistance due to quadrivalent innoculation and co-morbidities have on virulence and contagion. I guess we will find out if Covid-19 becomes endemic as expected.

 

[RooFlyer]

None. Stop being such a panic merchant.

 

[p--and--t]

An article from the Chinese CDC about Covid-19 with a comparison to SARS.It is much worse than the SARS epidemic.

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China—Summary of a China CDC Report

This Viewpoint summarizes key epidemiologic and clinical findings from all cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) reported through February 11, 2020, in mainland China, and case trends in response to government attempts to control and contain the infection.

jamanetwork.com

And an American study

'Stealth Transmission' Fuels Fast Spread of Coronavirus Outbreak

Researchers found that the rapid spread of the coronavirus outbreak in China was the result of stealth transmission. Read more about their findings.

www.mailman.columbia.edu

One of the things I don't think I have seen so far is a graphical presentation of the impacts relative to the age distribution. What I mean by this is the figures quote how many in an age group but don't display that relative to the % of the population in that age group.

Just a totally made up b...s... example: but if 0% of 5-9yos die but 5-9yos comprise 0.0001% of the relevant population where the sample was taken, or alternatively 15% of over 80yos die and they comprise >30% of the relevant population sample, it would show the risk profile in a different perspective.

 

[ozfflyer]

leisure travel everywhere has died, just like after Sep 11. Luckily for airlines, business types still have to travel & pay top dollar, but they need to get leisure travellers back in the air, which is why so many deals around, but don't expect low fares at peak times like easter (presume a good % of easter flights sold many months ago).

Same with school holidays, except for maybe Nov-Jan.

School start finishing mid Nov (grade 12/6th form) & don't go back til late Jan & unis around mid to late Feb. Most Qld unis started back this week.

So on fringes of school holidays, there are some deals now like $1000 SYD/LAX/SYD departing 9JAN, back 22-26JAN & cheaper domestic fares.

Think about it, many would be scared to ask for extra leave, in case boss says, you can have whole year off ?(without pay of course)

Sometimes airlines are their own worst enemy. Have sales going for too long & many start to believe that's the normal fare & benchmark it at that.

I think we'll see a lot more flight cutbacks, both domestically & internationally.

Qantas/Virgin make most of their money on peak hour flights departing roughly 5am to 8am & 4pm to 7pm Mon to Fri on golden triangle. Flights at these times won't be effected, but midday flights ?

 

[Tropic]

None. Stop being such a panic merchant.

Sigh...
Not that it matters to you obviously, I was commenting on the findings in the second paper posted by drron above..

"Heightened awareness of the outbreak, increased use of personal protective measures, and travel restriction have helped reduce the overall force of infection; however, it is unclear whether this reduction will be sufficient to fully stem the virus spread,” says Shaman. “If the novel coronavirus follows the pattern of 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza, it will also spread globally and become a fifth endemic coronavirus within the human population.”
But those scientists are panic merchants too so disregard and keep following FB.

 

[RooFlyer]

Not that it matters to you obviously, I was commenting on the findings in the second paper posted by drron above..

No worries. Mine was a general response to the thread question.

 

[woodborer]

Sigh...
Not that it matters to you obviously, I was commenting on the findings in the second paper posted by drron above..

"Heightened awareness of the outbreak, increased use of personal protective measures, and travel restriction have helped reduce the overall force of infection; however, it is unclear whether this reduction will be sufficient to fully stem the virus spread,” says Shaman. “If the novel coronavirus follows the pattern of 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza, it will also spread globally and become a fifth endemic coronavirus within the human population.”
But those scientists are panic merchants too so disregard and keep following FB.

People miss one bit with a 'novel' virus: there is no prior immunity.

 

[Tropic]

No worries. Mine was a general response to the thread question.

The thread topic deals with the potential impact on domestic air travel should the situation reach the point where the national emergency response strategy enforces restrictions on mass gatherings and group contact. Lots people have booked domestic (And NZ) flights due to DSC and concerns regarding international restrictions. I think therefore many would be interested if domestic travel would be affected down the track..Not sure how this is being a panic merchant??

 

[Tropic]

People miss one bit with a 'novel' virus: there is no prior immunity.

I recall seeing mention in a few scientific papers that some patients who had had the flu shot had less severe symptoms which suggested this may reduce the virulence of Covid-19 to some degree.

 

[Denali]

The thread topic deals with the potential impact on domestic air travel should the situation reach the point where the national emergency response strategy enforces restrictions on mass gatherings and group contact. Lots people have booked domestic (And NZ) flights due to DSC and concerns regarding international restrictions. I think therefore many would be interested if domestic travel would be affected down the track..Not sure how this is being a panic merchant??

Double SCs and international restrictions, unwell AFFers at the gate will be like, "Im fine! Just let me get on the plane and lets go. Its Double. Status. Credits!"

 

[Tropic]

Mod are you able to close this thread please as it really is covered under the existing effects on travel one. Sorry for posting in first place. Thanks tropic

 

[juddles]

What are possible effects of Corona virus national emergency response plan on domestic travel?

Australian Health Sector Emergency Response Plan for Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)

The Australian Health Sector Emergency Response Plan for Novel Coronavirus (the COVID-19 Plan) guides the Australian health sector response.

www.health.gov.au

There is nothing in this plan regarding suspension of domestic/intl flights on any stage. Scary.

I read (or at least skimmed through) the emergency response plan and could find no specifics. (unsurprisingly) To me the whole paper was more about a general way of how to approach the issue rather than a "plan" as such.

I did note however that they very specifically address the concept of taking into account cost vs benefit of actions - and I think that the issue of domestic airline travel could cause them some painful moments in the days ahead.

China has, in the view of some, demonstrated that a powerful government that enacts swift and harsh measures (such as effectively instantly quarantining 50,000,000 people!) can be a very good thing. With the current stats (not that I beleive them) it could be seen that despite China having possibly the worst scenario of extremely dense concentrations of people, they have managed to stem the tide. This may place pressure on governments like our own to also go very hard in measures to slow or stop citizen's free ability to wander around the nation.

Without getting into individual arguments, it appears to me clear that the government itself has now accepted that this will be a global pandemic, even if not yet officially named so by WHO. I also see that the idea of a vaccine has been universally accepted to be a solution that will simply be too late. Thus the focus is becoming entrenched on how best to manag the timeline of the pandemic to extend as long as possible the period with which it hits - so the peaks of medical need are made less severe.

This could provide the government with very strong incentive to stop people flying around the place on holidays.....

 

[juddles]

Mod are you able to close this thread please as it really is covered under the existing effects on travel one. Sorry for posting in first place. Thanks tropic

Tropic, I think your specific topic may well warrant its own thread. As it is certainly not inconceivable that the federal government will enact some restrictions on domestic travel. And to me that is a complex enough issue on its own to warrant separate discussion

 

[amaroo]

Based on the alleged downturn of visitors to the various China Town's around the country - probably pretty bloody big!

 

[p--and--t]

Based on the alleged downturn of visitors to the various China Town's around the country - probably pretty bloody big!

Alleged is the key word there.

Was out with friends tonight for dinner in Richmond Vic and the restaurant refused to take bookings, we had to queue up like everyone else to get in. No empty tables, buzzing and as busy as I have ever seen it. They were keen for us to stop chatting and surrender the table so it could be used by someone else.

 

[amaroo]

....

Alleged is the key word there.

Was out with friends tonight for dinner in Richmond Vic and the restaurant refused to take bookings, we had to queue up like everyone else to get in. No empty tables, buzzing and as busy as I have ever seen it. They were keen for us to stop chatting and surrender the table so it could be used by someone else.

We went Italian tonight - chock-a-block is the words