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General Discussion/Q&A on Coronavirus (COVID-19)

RooFlyer

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Squeaky wheel syndrome.

Yesterday I had a grizzle about my University's totally shutting down access to their their print collection; done without warning etc. post #850

I wrote a polite e-mail to the head librarian, while acknowledging the difficulty of the situation and that everyone is being impacted, pointing out that neither the govt or uni policies dictated the closure of, say, limited access by mail-out (which I'm a routine user of) and the decision would (in so many words) totally root us who rely on hard-copy books. I know I'm not the only one who sent in a similar message, students and staff!!

Got an e-mail from the deputy just now, saying the decision had been reviewed (on a case-by-case basis), and what would i like sent out :)
 

RooFlyer

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Got an e-mail from the deputy just now, saying the decision had been reviewed (on a case-by-case basis), and what would i like sent out :)
Now I've been told by my Prof that the university is shutting the campus down as of tonight. :( No advice from the Uni to students, though. :mad:

There are already no classes, and just about all the academics and admin are working from home. So its mainly the library and services that are affected; the philistines in Administration have won.

The library is 5 stories high (although they've long got rid of books and journals except for 1.5 floors - now its mainly 'study space'), has a staff of about 10 (students were locked out days ago). Seems they can't social distance there - but I reckon they'd have half a floor each.

As I've said before - there are many who are doing it tough in the education sector (let alone the rest of society!) but the UTAS admin just seems to have given up and thrown their remaining students under a bus. Again, in closing the library and then the campus, if they had given the same notice as nations have done in closing their borders, affected students could have made plans and gathered the resources they needed. But no, its being done on the quiet so the bloody nuisance students don't get in the way.
 
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As some of you will know one of my daughters is a Respiratory Ward Nurse.

She just posted this message to family and friends. I thought it worth sharing with a wider audience.

Thank you to everyone who is staying home, thank you to those who have cancelled plans and a big thank you to every essential worker out there putting themselves at risk for the benefit of others. I know we all have many stir-crazy, lonely days ahead.. but we NEED to do this. Your struggle will reduce the burden on the healthcare system, in turn saving lives. Your struggle means that you help keep me safe at my job by preventing us from being overwhelmed. So thank you 🧡🧡

I go to work for you, you stay at home for me
 
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drron

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Well I had to cancel my hospital job locally as I am having a Colonoscopy early next week.
My quote for the week - hell is doing prep for a colonoscopy when there is a shortage of toilet paper.

But on Wednesday a phone call from Launceston.Very short so rang to make sure I would be fine working in the current circumstances but that they have a ward set aside for Covid patients and I wouldn't be expected to work there.So week after next I am an essential traveller to Tasmania.In the last 36 hours QF have changed the flights to LST 3 times.

But already told I have to travel from the residence to hospital and back with only infrequent visits to get food.
 

Flashback

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If slot restrictions are being eased until October, is that a sign that the EU thinks it will probably be October at the earliest that travel starts to return, or rather return to more normal amounts?
 

tgh

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I know it is none of my business but I can't help myself….… but why not stay home and care for yourself and your lovely wife.
You have probably already saved a squillion lives..and done your bit…. why dive into the furnace again ?
The next few months will be very difficult……..
 

Flashback

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I know it is none of my business but I can't help myself….… but why not stay home and care for yourself and your lovely wife.
You have probably already saved a squillion lives..and done your bit…. why dive into the furnace again ?
The next few months will be very difficult……..
Eh? That's exactly what I am doing. I don't remember self isolation needing to be 6 months?

Yes, the next few months will be difficult - I've already lost one job and I suspect another is about to also be lost.
 

Pushka

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I know it is none of my business but I can't help myself….… but why not stay home and care for yourself and your lovely wife.
You have probably already saved a squillion lives..and done your bit…. why dive into the furnace again ?
The next few months will be very difficult……..
My SIL and DIL are the same. It is in their blood.
 

Flashback

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Right..... I cannot wrap my head around this. London Underground do engineering works on what seems like *every* weekend, now they've got the chance to go mad on it.... none scheduled! Now I know these are scheduled up front and it's likely just ended up this way, but sheesh!

Dear Flashback, Thank you to those of you who are following the Government and Mayor’s instructions not to travel unless your journey is absolutely essential. The number of people using our services has fallen dramatically. But we need even more of you to stop travelling and stay at home. This is critical to fighting the spread of COVID-19, protecting the NHS and maintaining safe and reliable transport for health, logistics and other critical workers. Making non-essential journeys risks lives. Please only travel if your journey is absolutely essential. If you do travel, follow the expert advice on hand washing and other health measures. We are operating reduced services and closing a number of stations so that we can keep things running for critical workers. With that in mind, we want to make you aware of the following closures this weekend, 28 and 29 March, and the following week.

London Underground There are no planned closures on the Tube this weekend.
 

amaroo

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Italians are investigating if this thing started in their country way back in Oct.

 

Matt_01

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So many virus threads so this one is as good as any. I have realised that there may be an upside, I have not set foot onto an aircraft in 10 days. I this is the longest period of time without boarding a aircraft in about 6 years. :) This will only increase as I cannot see myself flying any time soon.
 

Pushka

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So many virus threads so this one is as good as any. I have realised that there may be an upside, I have not set foot onto an aircraft in 10 days. I this is the longest period of time without boarding a aircraft in about 6 years. :) This will only increase as I cannot see myself flying any time soon.
Husband said similar the other day. He can't remember a break for more than 2 weeks in many many years. Maybe he can get his sinus operation done now. Oh, wait, no elective surgeries.
 
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Somewhat OT, but have just watched 'The Farthest', a doco about the Voyager missions launched in 1977.
This not especially smart device of mine probably has significantly more computing power than those travellers, but still they go about their tours of our galaxy carrying a few mementos of us 👽.
A lovely tale of human curiosity, wonder & optimism, postscripted by the image of the pale blue dot that we are seen from the edge of the Solar System.
As side notes, the humour of the briefing scientists dispel the stereotypes. ("This is the lost arc that our image raiders have been searching for")
And I always have a cheap laugh about pronunciation of the planet between Saturn & Neptune. ;)
Clearly we all face challenges, perhaps perspective can help. 🤗
 

PineappleSkip

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Updated pineapple table with estimates of numbers of active cases per 100,000 people in selected locations. The idea is to give an estimate of the extent of spread in these locations.

As ever, not rocket science. Population data mostly from Wikipedia. Case data extracted from Johns Hopkins dashboard where not shown otherwise.

I have made revised estimates of resolved (mostly recovered) cases in Australia, NSW and Qld based on the proportion of resolved cases in Victoria. Most other States & Territories are not reporting recoveries any more which is significantly overstating the numbers of active cases.

The case rate per capita is now higher in New York State than in Lombardy, and in Spain than in Italy. In the last week and a half, there have been significant increases in cases per 100,000 in Hong Kong and Shanghai, likely due to travellers from overseas, as has been the case in Australia.

Cheers skip

PlacePopulationtotalresolvedActiveActive/100kSource
New York
19,500,000​
53437​
2928​
50509​
259.02​
BNO US data
Lombardy
10,100,000​
39415​
14906​
24509​
242.66​
Salute.it
Spain
47,000,000​
73235​
18267​
54968​
116.95​
Italy
60,800,000​
92472​
22407​
70065​
115.24​
Salute.it
Norway
5,100,000​
4043​
30​
4013​
78.69​
Nordrhein-Westfalen
17,900,000​
12744​
1569​
11175​
62.43​
Berliner-Morgenpost
Germany
83,000,000​
55434​
8902​
46532​
56.06​
Berliner-Morgenpost
London
8,900,000​
5299​
359​
4940​
55.51​
NHS
USA
328,200,000​
124686​
4803​
119883​
36.53​
UK
66,000,000​
17315​
1172​
16143​
24.46​
NHS
New South Wales
8,000,000​
1791​
459
1332​
16.65​
Health.nsw.gov.au
Australia
25,600,000​
3984​
1021
2963​
11.57​
Covid19data.com.au
Queensland
5,100,000​
656​
168
488​
9.57​
Victoria
6,600,000​
769​
197​
572​
8.67​
health.vic.gov.au
Singapore
5,600,000​
620​
201​
419​
7.48​
moh.gov.sg
Hong Kong
7,500,000​
582​
116​
466​
6.21​
HK Health
UAE
9,600,000​
468​
57​
411​
4.28​
Japan
126,300,000​
1693​
456​
1237​
0.98​
Shanghai
24,200,000​
492​
339​
153​
0.63​
 
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Matt_01

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OT again, a week on from this post I have the feeling of déjà vu. That old bloke in the mirror is back, again taunting me with that same lighter coloured beard. It is obvious that he Is not going away nor has he made any attempt to darken it and make me feel better. Time for plan B, he knows it is time for the quarterly hair cut and I am going to fight back and put him in his place. To this end and for the foreseeable future he his not getting his hair cut and when my wings are un-clipped he will be getting a ‘mullet’. Let’s see how he likes that.
 

Quickstatus

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Sometime ago when it was still coronavirus and not yet Covid
I mentioned the SIR modelling of epidemics. I could not be bothered to go back to find the actual post....

Anyway, the "curve" referred to by WHO and the Govt is one of the 3 curves in the SIR model.
Google SIR model if you would like a technical explanation and the differential equationswhich underpin the mathematical model

For those who would like a more visual explanation including the "flattening of the curve":

Note he current media reports (hyperventilation) about the infections going exponential and millions of Australians getting infected are all wrong. In a closed population system there is no such thing as exponential growth. The media just reports the initial growth part of the curve but they omit the other side of the curve.

 

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