General Corona Virus chit chat thread - non-travel specific | Page 27 | Australian Frequent Flyer
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General Corona Virus chit chat thread - non-travel specific

ja1

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I think testing is poor, but you need to look at deaths per million. USA is still quite low while Italy and Spain are high. USA is 3 per million vs Italy 124. Deaths seem to take awhile so USA could grow.
China's issue was hiding figures and trying to pretend the problem wasn't a real one until it was too late.
China's recovery was to enforce such a total lockdown (at a huge social and economic cost) and having the ability to do so at a 'any price that has to be paid' - and being able to execute on that.

The US's issue seems to be a combination of amazing incompetence (perhaps matched only in specific examples between the Australian Border Force explaining that they don't actually manage the border if it's anything to do with biosecurity, look at the cruise ship issue and now the Sydney airport queueing on international arrival), woeful leadership (federal and state) and as a result the inability of the populace to grasp the nature of what is going on.

All the expert commentary is noting the US is going to have the largest amount of infections, the largest number of deaths and be the largest vector of infection.

That's literally the case here in NSW as far as I can tell from numbers with people travelling back from the US causing more infections than all the people travelling here from China. And yet we shut down travel from China and let people come back from the US..

It feels like I should be saying something like "You cannot make this stuff up.. "
 

JohnM

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Not really no because you are using hindsight. There are warnings about meteors or comets that could hit the planet and wipe out life and politicians don't do a lot about those either. And I can guarantee we'll complain about that when it comes up as well.

It should be less about going after them for the events of the past - which we all end up sharing the blame because we put that politician in power in the first place and more about measuring them on what they did during and post crisis.

It is incredibly easy to blame every single Australian's PM going back to 1919 to say that you knew about the Spanish flu and yet you did nothing to prepare for it in the future (as measured by what happened in 6 weeks in 2020 so far). It's not particularly constructive is it.. as it says that for a hundred years the Australian population didn't care enough about this issue to elect leadership to deal with it.

It's what the current leadership does right now and what the opposition says and does right now that we should be looking at in terms of thinking about fault.

To reiterate, it is entirely OUR fault as citizens that we are so un-prepared. We do not care enough or are active enough in the political process that it is reasonable to blame people we elect at a broad level statement like yours.
The GFC may have been a 'Black Swan' event. Covid-19 is arguably a 'Grey Rhino' event (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michele_Wuckerevent.) but no politician would get elected preaching that doom and gloom, prepper-type stuff.

However, it seems that even the inventor of the term 'Grey Rhino' didn't foresee a global pandemic as a possibility in her most recent Grey Rhino list: The Top Gray Rhino Risks of 2019 | The Gray Rhino
 
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The GFC may have been a 'Black Swan' event. Covid-19 is arguably a 'Grey Rhino' event (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michele_Wuckerevent.) but no politician would get elected preaching that doom and gloom, prepper-type stuff.

However, it seems that even the inventor of the term 'Grey Rhino' didn't foresee a global pandemic as a possibility in her most recent Grey Rhino list: The Top Gray Rhino Risks of 2019 | The Gray Rhino

Look Under 5/

Climate related issues made up an impressive seven of the World Economic Forum’s top ten risks seen as most likely, and five of the most impactful (six if you include epidemics/pandemics, which have some elements related to changing temperatures).
 

JohnM

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Look Under 5/

Climate related issues made up an impressive seven of the World Economic Forum’s top ten risks seen as most likely, and five of the most impactful (six if you include epidemics/pandemics, which have some elements related to changing temperatures).
Yep, missed that.

But it's arguable, I think, that pandemics could be foreseen as Grey Rhino events in their own right without invoking the overarching aspect of climate-related events.

Human-crowding - in all its forms - is arguably a more proximate factor than climate factors.

I'm just surprised she didn't elevate pandemics to its own category, rather than a sub-category of climate matters. But at least it was listed.
 

Scarlett

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I'm not sure all these could be ignored as false positives, of is this just another example of why anything reported from China should be taken with a grain of salt?
 

Flashback

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The fact that it's taken something like this ........ I think those in essential professions should always have free parking, especially those like nursing etc. where the pay may be OK, but not great when you factor in some of the outgoings etc. For folk working high flying jobs that choose to drive into the city, they should darn well pay. Anyway, I think you get what I mean ;)
 

kyle

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If a full lock down is implemented, should that mean most infected cases would come out after 14 days?
 

amaroo

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drron

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Not really no because you are using hindsight. There are warnings about meteors or comets that could hit the planet and wipe out life and politicians don't do a lot about those either. And I can guarantee we'll complain about that when it comes up as well.

It should be less about going after them for the events of the past - which we all end up sharing the blame because we put that politician in power in the first place and more about measuring them on what they did during and post crisis.

It is incredibly easy to blame every single Australian's PM going back to 1919 to say that you knew about the Spanish flu and yet you did nothing to prepare for it in the future (as measured by what happened in 6 weeks in 2020 so far). It's not particularly constructive is it.. as it says that for a hundred years the Australian population didn't care enough about this issue to elect leadership to deal with it.

It's what the current leadership does right now and what the opposition says and does right now that we should be looking at in terms of thinking about fault.

To reiterate, it is entirely OUR fault as citizens that we are so un-prepared. We do not care enough or are active enough in the political process that it is reasonable to blame people we elect at a broad level statement like yours.
Except that the leaders of countries such as Singapore,Taiwan and South Korea after the SARS epidemic in 2002 put in place the outlines of plans in case of a similiar happening.Swine flu in 2009 should have woken up the western world.
 

ja1

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Good to see the authorities are thinking ahead and highlighting one very predictable outcome.

As long as we remember that Australian companies are similarly not allowed to swoop down on any distressed assets internationally they could pickup and run much better.. and in turn generate profits to send back to Australia..

I'm always amazed by headlines like this without any data. Can the MP in question provide any data on the number of FIRB reviews underway based on actual applications.. or is it that number is currently zero..

And can the MP in question state the obvious - that we'd rather see a company go under than be foreign owned (if it's in a distressed state, that's an outcome?) and we think that makes sense..

I'm all for Australian ownership where it's possible and in particular of a number of key/strategic assets but there should be some intellectual honesty that says it's preferable to let something go bust and not have it rather than letting someone else own it or control it..
 

amaroo

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As long as we remember that Australian companies are similarly not allowed to swoop down on any distressed assets internationally they could pickup and run much better.. and in turn generate profits to send back to Australia..

I'm always amazed by headlines like this without any data. Can the MP in question provide any data on the number of FIRB reviews underway based on actual applications.. or is it that number is currently zero..

And can the MP in question state the obvious - that we'd rather see a company go under than be foreign owned (if it's in a distressed state, that's an outcome?) and we think that makes sense..

I'm all for Australian ownership where it's possible and in particular of a number of key/strategic assets but there should be some intellectual honesty that says it's preferable to let something go bust and not have it rather than letting someone else own it or control it..
Probably geared by historical record and common sense.
 

PineappleSkip

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There is no coming out for anyone. Those not needing hospital would be at home.
I think Kyle is referring to the emergence of cases. And I’m thinking maybe 10 days (more?) from total lockdown to peak of positive tests?

cheers skip
 

ja1

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If a full lock down is implemented, should that mean most infected cases would come out after 14 days?
It's not clear what question you're asking.

Infected cases being people already in hospital ?

Infected people who are at home (self isolating/quarantined) ?

Infected people who don't know they are infected ?

If a lockdown is in place then as others have stated, you simply aren't allowed to leave your home (house, apartment, shack, boat, caravan, tent?)

If you use the Wuhan example, you don't get to go shopping or anything. Processes are put in place for how that is done (either by the government or through some devolved mechanism at a street level organised by the government) where there is a system of creating a shopping list and a roster of people who do the shopping and so on. Not saying that's the case here but providing it as an example of how a lockdown works in a known case.
 

ja1

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Probably geared by historical record and common sense.
What historical record and what is common sense if you have no data behind it ?

The largest group of foreigners who own assets (by way of land) in Australia are the UK and US. I am assuming the FIRB is all geared up to ensure that US and UK companies don't swoop down on our assets and buy them (using your historical record).

We've always been a country that has not only needed foreign investment (capital) but actively sought it out. I can't see that changing as the common sense tells you the approach that's been working for a cuple of hundred years is likely to be the approach that keeps working until someone explains why it isn't..

I'm not a fan of 'common sense' being applied with no data either in front of a decision or any data after decisions to you can measure what the common sense is telling you so you can calibrate the common sense to what is actually happening.

This is like pilots using their 'gut feel' to correct a plane's position in the sky when the instruments are saying its flying straight and level. .
 

kyle

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I think Kyle is referring to the emergence of cases. And I’m thinking maybe 10 days (more?) from total lockdown to peak of positive tests?

cheers skip
Yes that's what I meant. Not coming out as in physically walking out of their house.
 

kyle

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It's not clear what question you're asking.

Infected cases being people already in hospital ?

Infected people who are at home (self isolating/quarantined) ?

Infected people who don't know they are infected ?

If a lockdown is in place then as others have stated, you simply aren't allowed to leave your home (house, apartment, shack, boat, caravan, tent?)

If you use the Wuhan example, you don't get to go shopping or anything. Processes are put in place for how that is done (either by the government or through some devolved mechanism at a street level organised by the government) where there is a system of creating a shopping list and a roster of people who do the shopping and so on. Not saying that's the case here but providing it as an example of how a lockdown works in a known case.
Sorry my question wasn't clear.

If there's a total shutdown of 2 weeks (which is the period of incubation), then anyone who is potentially infected and not showing symptoms would either have recovered, or require medical attention, then we'd know how many cases we have to deal with.
 

Chicken

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Below is an interesting way to look at the psychology, on why people were, and still are, in denial, and of course, on global warming and other issues (although there are other psychological explainations on global warning and protecting priests) : -

Jeremy Konyndyk, who led the government’s response to international disasters as director of the Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance

He is talking about why are so many people in various US government departments so slow to react to the virus.

Quote : -

We kept hearing from the administration that it was a low risk to the U.S., and I think they sincerely believed that. And it was low risk in the sense that if you see a forest fire sweeping towards you, burning up every town in its wake, but it’s three towns away, then they’re right, at this moment you’re not at risk of being burned alive.

But that doesn’t mean you’re at low risk. It’s insane to me that they weren’t thinking of it that way. They were thinking that somehow between those three towns away — and us — there was some sort of fire break that would magically prevent us from being burned alive.
 

tgh

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Any sign of a curve is great news especially in lotfap….

The number of new coronavirus cases in Florida appears to be flattening, but it’s unclear if the trend will hold. Based on case data from the past three weeks and the expected exponential growth curve that epidemiologists and national public health officials are seeing in other locations, Florida should have posted somewhere in the neighborhood of 340 to 380 new coronavirus cases today.

That didn’t happen.

Out of the 1,961 test results that came back today, the state identified just 240 positive cases, while the rest, nearly 88 percent, or 1,721 cases, came back negative. Those relatively low numbers come after Florida’s Department of Health found just 200 cases on Monday, which was 44 fewer than Sunday’s all-time high. But even Sunday’s total should have been significantly higher if Florida was experiencing steady exponential growth.

The conclusion is obvious: Florida expected exponential growth curve for the virus has inarguably started to flatten out over the last several days, which has lowered expectations going forward, too (note the new, much lower trendline in green on the chart below):


 

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