Discussion on Ukraine situation 2022

[RAM]

This one mentions Sri Lanka fairly prominently. Sri Lanka did kick some own goals well before Russia invaded Ukraine, in the middle of the pandemic (which killed off half of their foreign exchange receipts when tourism stopped) they overnight stopped importation of synthetic fertilisers and pesticides (now partially reversed), which caused huge declines in agricultural production - particularly noticeable in rice and tea (they had to start importing the former for the first time in a while and exports of the latter - another vital source of FX - declined significantly). Now compounded by Russia/Ukraine situation.

No doubt the other countries mentioned, highly dependant on wheat to feed their populations (in addition to their energy needs) are suffering significantly (or about to).

..and need to add the important piece of information - debts to China (for new seaport with virtually no point but billions in debt) are sucking up most of Sri Lanka's FX earnings or becomes a Chinese naval base...

Well, coincidentally the two largest berths just happen to match what are required for China's largest warships and NOT any container nor rollon/rolloff ships.

 

[RAM]

I agree. But virtually everything that is being blamed upon Putin basically was happening before February- Price of oil,inflation, supply chain problems etc but the war has given them all a kick along.

True, but does not suit the desired narrative being run.

Meanwhile, other than thanks to Sarah Palin when she was the Alaskan Governor, all oil & gas companies are reaping massive increases in their profits with little to no increase in royalty nor taxes paid.

The Qataris are slightly participating a little though.

The much derided Sarah Palin (of Vice President candidate fame) set a tax/royalty/revenue sharing formula for all fuels pulled out of Alaska that see profits above a 'reasonable' level (defined to the 2nd or 3rd decimal point of true cost of production plus a profit margin) then get taxed at a massive rate.

Despite the fear campaign run by the energy majors (no further investment will be made etc etc) - this has been so successful that Alaska has NO state income tax for people living there nor a host of other state taxes levied across the most of the US states.

Does make you question, given the massive & ever growing Federal Govt debt - why no discussion about sharing/taxing these windfall gains has happened? Instead Australia is happy to rack up another $6 to $8bn in debt to cut the fuel excise by 22 cents/litre for 6 months.

Perhaps the $35m advertising campaign against the tax on resource super profits in the late 2000s counts as the best money the fossil fuel industry ever spent in Australia?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Day 50

 

[drron]

And the Ukrainians have sunk a guided missile cruiser. the largest ship in russia's Black Sea fleet.

Russian warship sinks; Ukraine says its missile is responsible

Russia said its lead warship in the Black Sea sank on Thursday after an explosion and fire that Ukraine claimed was caused by a missile strike, dealing a blow to Moscow as it readied for new attacks that were likely to determine the conflict's outcome.

www.reuters.com

And Russia threatens to move more nuclear weapons into the Baltic region.

Russia already has nuclear weapons in the Baltic region, says Lithuania

Russia already has nuclear weapons in the Baltic region, Lithuanian Defence Minister Arvydas Anusauskas said on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

 

[tgh]

I fear for Ukraine as a rested and vengeful bear has studied the foe and conceptually possesses the might to have its way.
The increasing flow of sophisticated western weaponry (including, one assumes, technically skilled and battle hardened "how to use this " Instructors…) may halt the onslaught, we can only hope.

 

[Cossie]

Interesting article about missiles and ships, predates sinking, talks of Neptune missiles staying very close the surface.

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/why-russias-navy-ukraine-war-doomed-or-irrelevant

Ukraine Will Easily Destroy or Sideline Russia’s Navy with Game-Changing Anti-Ship Missiles

Just twenty anti-ship missiles and their accompanying systems could wipe out all of Russia’s big warships in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Anti-ship missiles that were announced yesterday wi…

realcontextnews.com

 

[jb747]

Interesting article about missiles and ships, predates sinking, talks of Neptune missiles staying very close the surface.

Most anti shipping missiles are sea skimmers, though some also have terminal pop up manoeuver. Point defense systems (Phalanx and its ilk) can defeat them if working properly, but as ships normally only have a couple of such installations, a simultaneous attack can overwhelm them.

This is a big ship to have lost though. HMS Glamorgan (about 8,000 tonnes) survived two Exocet hits in the Falklands, whilst the smaller Sheffield (about 4,000 tonnes) was killed by a single hit. If you manage to break movement fore/aft on the ship, fire control will become the biggest issue. This was a much bigger ship, at about 12,500 tonnes, but it has exposed missiles above decks, which strikes me as a risky design. From what I recall of cold war tactics, they were literally a one shot ship, designed to attempt a mass strike on a US carrier, after which they were probably expendable.

 

[OZDUCK]

Now Russia is left with two pretty unsatisfactory explanations. One, which they are currently putting up as the reason, is that their navy is so incompetent that by sloppy crew work it sank its own vessel. The second is that Ukraine, using modified old USSR missiles, sank a vessel which was supposed to have an effective 3 layer anti-missile defence system. Neither argument is likely to bolster confidence in the capabilities of the Russian navy.

 

[kelvedon]

Convenient that it sank in a storm whilst being towed back then.

 

[RAM]

Interesting article about missiles and ships, predates sinking, talks of Neptune missiles staying very close the surface.

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/why-russias-navy-ukraine-war-doomed-or-irrelevant

Ukraine Will Easily Destroy or Sideline Russia’s Navy with Game-Changing Anti-Ship Missiles

Just twenty anti-ship missiles and their accompanying systems could wipe out all of Russia’s big warships in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Anti-ship missiles that were announced yesterday wi…

realcontextnews.com

The Ukrainians had 'updated' existing Soviet anti-ship missiles in 2021 and these are now called 'Neptune' missiles. In one release overnight the Ukrainian military claimed (credibly) that they used one of these on the amphibious landing ship docked at the Azov Sea port some weeks ago and used two yesterday in combination with one (or more) massively low-cost (in comparison to their Neptune missiles) drone(s).

It looks as if this was nearly a one-shot roll of the dice. The Russians may learn from this mistake. Trouble is they've lost their primary comannd & control ship in the Black Sea (along with up to 64 AS300F missiles (anti-aircraft, anti-ballistic missile) with a range of up to 90km). Not to mention around 1/3rd of the combined fleet radar/sonar capability.

The CIWS (close-in-weapons-systems) have one major shortcoming. The Russian one, allegedly, has the biggest shortcoming - virtually one shot wonders. A CIWS works by 'painting' a lead wall of some metres by some metres dimensions a distance from the ship in a VERY short time. This lead wall is created in no more than a few seconds from a massively high rate of fire, which nearly super-heats the gun barrels resulting in the CIWS having to be both reloaded and allowed to cool.

Russia never planned to be the defender with its navy, always the attacker - so these CIWS were designed to allow it to fully expend its offensive weapons which would (obviously) wipe out the enemy.

Ukraine, and others know this well. So Ukraine used one (or more) drones to approach the ship, 'jump up' just like a typical anti-ship missile and 'dive down'. The Chinese know this and have publicly announced (after 'obtaining' the tech details) that their plan is to overwhelm US Carrier Battle Groups by weight of numbers using lower cost missiles in the first 90 seconds to fully or nearly fully expend all US CIWS before a large number of ship killer missiles arrive to sink the carrier and then progressively smaller vessels. Guess why no US CBGs go through the South China Sea since the coral reefs were built on?

The Russian CIWS calculates the profile of the dive trajectory and 'paints' its lead wall. However the drone only stays on the dive trajectory for a (very) short time if the operator has judged how long is required to trick the CIWS.

Given the relative costs of the drones vs Neptune missiles (and available number of each) - I suspect that around three drones were sent out (& maybe all used). If the 1st drone worked perfectly then it would have risen at an extreme angle to the projected impact path - thus living to fight another time.

Likely a second drone then commences its run from a different angle, but same side of the ship, to ensure no CIWS capacity is left for when the missiles arrive imminently.

At worst the Ukraine lost 2 drones (IMHO), at best they lost none.

Meanwhile the Russians realise what is happening - we've been tricked, take the CIWS of full auto while they reload and cool. Just as the two Neptune missiles coming from virtually the same angles, rise up & plough into it.

Makes people who had drones, as a hobby, now the most sought after 'service' personnel in the Ukraine. If interested, there are a few stories on them - pointedly all on them as helping the army. Gotta love the planning of the Ukranian Govt/Military media machine.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Donbas has been Ukraine's ravaged heartland for eight years. Here's why Putin wants it

Donbas, a sprawling and beleaguered heartland region that blankets much of eastern Ukraine, has been the front line of the country's conflict with Russia since 2014.

edition.cnn.com

 

[OZDUCK]

The Ukrainians had 'updated' existing Soviet anti-ship missiles in 2021 and these are now called 'Neptune' missiles. In one release overnight the Ukrainian military claimed (credibly) that they used one of these on the amphibious landing ship docked at the Azov Sea port some weeks ago and used two yesterday in combination with one (or more) massively low-cost (in comparison to their Neptune missiles) drone(s).

It looks as if this was nearly a one-shot roll of the dice. The Russians may learn from this mistake. Trouble is they've lost their primary comannd & control ship in the Black Sea (along with up to 64 AS300F missiles (anti-aircraft, anti-ballistic missile) with a range of up to 90km). Not to mention around 1/3rd of the combined fleet radar/sonar capability.

The CIWS (close-in-weapons-systems) have one major shortcoming. The Russian one, allegedly, has the biggest shortcoming - virtually one shot wonders. A CIWS works by 'painting' a lead wall of some metres by some metres dimensions a distance from the ship in a VERY short time. This lead wall is created in no more than a few seconds from a massively high rate of fire, which nearly super-heats the gun barrels resulting in the CIWS having to be both reloaded and allowed to cool.

Russia never planned to be the defender with its navy, always the attacker - so these CIWS were designed to allow it to fully expend its offensive weapons which would (obviously) wipe out the enemy.

Ukraine, and others know this well. So Ukraine used one (or more) drones to approach the ship, 'jump up' just like a typical anti-ship missile and 'dive down'. The Chinese know this and have publicly announced (after 'obtaining' the tech details) that their plan is to overwhelm US Carrier Battle Groups by weight of numbers using lower cost missiles in the first 90 seconds to fully or nearly fully expend all US CIWS before a large number of ship killer missiles arrive to sink the carrier and then progressively smaller vessels. Guess why no US CBGs go through the South China Sea since the coral reefs were built on?

The Russian CIWS calculates the profile of the dive trajectory and 'paints' its lead wall. However the drone only stays on the dive trajectory for a (very) short time if the operator has judged how long is required to trick the CIWS.

Given the relative costs of the drones vs Neptune missiles (and available number of each) - I suspect that around three drones were sent out (& maybe all used). If the 1st drone worked perfectly then it would have risen at an extreme angle to the projected impact path - thus living to fight another time.

Likely a second drone then commences its run from a different angle, but same side of the ship, to ensure no CIWS capacity is left for when the missiles arrive imminently.

At worst the Ukraine lost 2 drones (IMHO), at best they lost none.

Meanwhile the Russians realise what is happening - we've been tricked, take the CIWS of full auto while they reload and cool. Just as the two Neptune missiles coming from virtually the same angles, rise up & plough into it.

Makes people who had drones, as a hobby, now the most sought after 'service' personnel in the Ukraine. If interested, there are a few stories on them - pointedly all on them as helping the army. Gotta love the planning of the Ukranian Govt/Military media machine

Vey informative but I do have a slight quibble in that the US Navy has still been sailing Carrier Groups in the South China Sea in 2021 and 2022 well after the reefs have been built up.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-01-24/two-u-s-carriers-enter-s-china-sea-to-counter-malign-influence

U.S. Navy says carrier group operating in S.China Sea

A U.S. aircraft carrier group led by the USS Ronald Reagan has entered the South China Sea as part of a routine mission, the U.S. Navy said on Tuesday, at a time of rising tensions between Washington and Beijing, which claims most the disputed waterway.

www.reuters.com

 

[Scarlett]

 

[drron]

I liked the Ukranian Defence Minister's statement when announcing the sinking - "We will have another dive site in the Black Sea when the war is over."

 

[RAM]

Vey informative but I do have a slight quibble in that the US Navy has still been sailing Carrier Groups in the South China Sea in 2021 and 2022 well after the reefs have been built up.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-01-24/two-u-s-carriers-enter-s-china-sea-to-counter-malign-influence

U.S. Navy says carrier group operating in S.China Sea

A U.S. aircraft carrier group led by the USS Ronald Reagan has entered the South China Sea as part of a routine mission, the U.S. Navy said on Tuesday, at a time of rising tensions between Washington and Beijing, which claims most the disputed waterway.

www.reuters.com

Mea culpa - I thought they had stopped entirely.

Looking at the articles you mentioned - they seem to be a little 'propaganda' by the US Defence media. The CBGs did not go near (within hundreds of km) the artificial islands though, no 'Freedom of Navigation' attempted.

One of the articles really gave it away - in waters classed as 'increased threat' there are normally around a dozen other surface ships (plus a number of hunter/killer submarines) screening a carrier spread out over 10,000 to 15,000 sq km of ocean, including Aegis-class cruisers which have the supercomputers that provide the mesh control for multiple surface ships for air/sea defense (missiles, ships, aircraft & ballistic missiles). You can't have four ships all aiming at the same few incoming missiles out of a myriad.

In this instance there were just two other surface ships, one an Aegis cruiser and the other an 'expendable' destroyer.

The other article (based on a US Defence Media release) conflates 4 separate items (who says all spin doctors work for just politicians) and creates false impressions of what the news actually is.

The two Carrier Battle Groups (who's who of US surface ships) were 'notionally' in the South China Sea - just the furthest northern part... Nowhere near the artificial islands & no freedom of navigation by the CBGs themselves. A single separate destroyer did a freedom of navigation voyage at the same time - just nothing to do with the 2 CBGs (see article at bottom of this post).

"Both carrier groups were reported on Sunday by the U.S. Navy to have been exercising with Japan's navy in the Philippine Sea, an area that includes waters to the east of Taiwan." Which just happens to be where the exercise was held.

East of Taiwan = the far side of Taiwan, with China to the west of Taiwan.

I can't find it (at the moment) but there was a map of Chinese missile coverage (massively increased to the new islands) which was in an article that explained how the US Navy had bowed to the increased threat and now sees US CBGs only traverse to the East of Taiwan and the Philipines.

All the freedom of navigation trips have been done by (typically) a single 'expendable' destroyer such as this one conducted while the 2 CBGs were way way north.

7th Fleet Destroyer conducts Freedom of Navigation Operation in South China Sea

On Feb. 17 (local time) USS Russell (DDG 59) asserted navigational rights and freedoms in the Spratly Islands, consistent with international law.

www.navy.mil

SOUTH CHINA SEA - On Feb. 17 (local time) USS Russell (DDG 59) asserted navigational rights and freedoms in the Spratly Islands, consistent with international law. {A destroyer}

The Spratly Islands are around 1,500 km from Taiwan.

Post automatically merged: Apr 17, 2022

View attachment 274816

Limited Edition?

 

[SCM]

I'm going to be visiting EU soon, very curious if anyone is travelling there now - what is the situation with regards to refugees and prices/inflation?

 

[Flashback]

I'm going to be visiting EU soon, very curious if anyone is travelling there now - what is the situation with regards to refugees and prices/inflation?

It's not really a problem at all. We were in Warsaw shortly after it all kicked off and people were increasingly more heading there but unless you were looking for it specifically you wouldn't really notice.

 

[jb747]

Mea culpa - I thought they had stopped entirely.

Looking at the articles you mentioned - they seem to be a little 'propaganda' by the US Defence media. The CBGs did not go near (within hundreds of km) the artificial islands though, no 'Freedom of Navigation' attempted.

One of the articles really gave it away - in waters classed as 'increased threat' there are normally around a dozen other surface ships (plus a number of hunter/killer submarines) screening a carrier spread out over 10,000 to 15,000 sq km of ocean, including Aegis-class cruisers which have the supercomputers that provide the mesh control for multiple surface ships for air/sea defense (missiles, ships, aircraft & ballistic missiles). You can't have four ships all aiming at the same few incoming missiles out of a myriad.

In this instance there were just two other surface ships, one an Aegis cruiser and the other an 'expendable' destroyer.

All the freedom of navigation trips have been done by (typically) a single 'expendable' destroyer such as this one conducted while the 2 CBGs were way way north.

It’s a long time since destroyers were expendable. About the last ship that would have fitted that billing was the Perry class, and it was actually a frigate.

As for AEGIS…it’s far more widespread than just being fitted to the Ticonderoga class cruisers. The destroyer in this exercise, is an Arleigh Burke class vessel, and is itself AEGIS equipped. I’d expect it was also following in the footsteps of an SSN. For the Chinese though, attacking any of these ships would not be something they could step back from, but the response to an attack on a carrier, would be unlikely to be less than nuclear, even if it was targeted at their military bases (most likely their own nuclear bases). They may choose to go there, who knows, the world is nuttier than when the cold war was at play.

 

[Scarlett]

Mea culpa - I thought they had stopped entirely.

<snip>

@RAM, I’m not sure what point you’re making?
There’s increased risk to major surface combatants from both the Chinese mainland and from their artificial islands in the SCS?
Of course there is, just like there is a risk from advanced ballistic missiles and submarines. Or from air-launched cruise missiles.

Carrier battle groups are operating in the SCS.
US Navy are conducting Freedom of Navigation in the SCS, in both the Spratly and Paracel Islands.

Anyway, back on topic: things are not going well for Russia in any sphere except for domestic propaganda and control of their local population. I still do not see what the Kremlin is seeking to achieve or how they structure a face saving end point. They will be facing war crimes investigations for many years and paying reparations for longer. And to achieve what? Full control of the Donbas? That’s like sacrificing your queen to take a pawn…

If the Kremlin and Putin start facing pushback locally who knows what they’ll do. It may be even more dangerous.

 

[Must...Fly!]

they structure a face saving end point

propaganda

You answered your own question.


Many in Russia don't care for or about what the west may or may not do in response. It's unlikely to be relayed to them in the news anyway - and even if so it'll be how the EU/US behemoths are suffocating the Russian people for their own benefits.

You can't look through a western prism when thinking about what happens inside Russia. Everything you know, your value set, your belief in institutions, should go completely out the window.