Could A345 make QF7/8 non-stop and profitable?

[Aussie Pete]

I think there is also enough history and data out there to show the reliability of the A340 isn't going to firm up any economics it has in the perefect world. The 744ER had issues on release but the updates to FMC in particular the trapped fuel reset logic got it to a very good reliability level. Starting a mission knowing you'll finish it is a good thing. The A340 just doubles the exposure to engine and LRU issues of the A330.

The fuel burn with the GEs was also better than predicted (well over 1% from memory) which couldn't be said of Scarebus' calculations on the A340 and their ongoing payments to airlines running the fleet.

Don't forget also the 744ER is on fleet now and it has a daily cost attached to that. If you put A340s on DFW-SYD etc what do the 744ERs do?

As for 777s well, exciting times in the QF world and thinking. I just think from an insider's view of what was going on back then we just go the impression QF had its heart set on certain products. The split A330 fleet and putting A330s on CityFlyer showed the folly of their decisions versus say a 767 domestic/intl fleet update with 777 international. Every 777 I covered for new ops at an airline was so trouble free it was almost a joke. Talking to the Scarebus guys at Thai for example, A340 was seldom easy.

All I can say is when you face the airline guys they are often bouncing a thousand scenarios around. Sometimes you can plead with them to make the right decision but they simply can't make that decision because they have otehr decisions they can't leave behind. Another one of these is VA and why they didn't do the large forward cargo door. They had every bit of information in front of them to decide properly - it just wasn't meant to be....

 

[TomVexille]

No, for the ER the volume is a lot lower, I dont have the figures to hand, thats where the A380 has the 10T advantage, non ER is much of a muchness.

I assume due to extra fuel tanks?

 

[Aussie Pete]

I assume due to extra fuel tanks?

The rear most bays in fwd hold are lost due to the body tank and barrier. From my very vague mamory now there is also some loss of volume in the bulk hold area due to movement of water tanks to that area. Gee, been a few years now!

 

[moa999]

Aussie Pete,
Welcome aboard.
Looks like you have some interesting perspectives to add to fleet discussions in particular.

 

[Kefci2000]

Found this on Boarding Area website

The Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport board will be asked next week to approve construction at the airport’s Terminal D to accommodate an Airbus A380, the airline industry’s largest passenger airplane.


The A380 supposedly will arrive in October. But the airport doesn’t say which airline plans to bring the A380.


Here’s some info from briefing information provided the airport board, and we quote:


– Recent gate capacity studies have identified that terminal modifications are needed to accommodate forecasted growth. Based on industry knowledge, there is the need to accommodate ADG VI aircraft in 2014. The objective of this project is to provide one ADG VI gate at Terminal D.


– This action will provide for construction at Terminal D to accommodate ADG VI aircraft by the anticipated required date of October 1, 2014.


– Without the construction of the Terminal D jetbridge modifications, DFW Airport can not accommodate scheduled service of passenger-carrying ADG VI aircraft.


The airport staff is asking the board to approve a $2,847,777 construction contract to modify gates D15 and D16 with such changes as a second jet bridge and walkway to load passengers.


An airline spokesman politely declined to say who’s coming. It’ll be up to the airline to announce.


I enjoy a good rumor, just as I enjoyed the rumor that Turkish Airlines is considering leasing four A380s (a rumor, for the record, which the Turkish CEO has acknowledged, though we still don’t have final details).


So which airline could be launching A380 service to Dallas?


The major international carriers to DFW Airport include:


British Airways
Emirates
Etihad (as of December)
KLM
Korean Air
Lufthansa
Qantas
Qatar (as of July)
Dallas is of course a big American Airlines and OneWorld hub, so I think it’s very likely that it will be a OneWorld carrier that’s even pondering A380 service to Dallas, given the possibility for connections. That leaves British Airways and Qantas. Or to throw out a “wild card” option, I wouldn’t totally be shocked if it were Emirates, for reasons I’ll cover below.


British Airways


They presently have one daily flight between Dallas and London on a 747, though American and British Airways basically have a monopoly on the market. So British doesn’t have a ton to gain by sending an A380 there. That being said, surely they could easily route more connecting passengers through Dallas, so I’d say they definitely could make the route work. Though in my opinion they don’t have a whole lot to gain with that equipment change.




British Airways A380


Qantas


This is an interesting one. Qantas announced a massive restructuring yesterday given that they’re bleeding money on their longhaul routes. So one hand surely they can’t be considering sending another A380 on an ultra longhaul route, which are tough to turn a profit on. Furthermore, Qantas did just cancel their remaining A380 orders, so clearly it isn’t totally “working” for them.


At the same time, Qantas presently flies a 747 to Dallas, and apparently it has major payload restrictions, to the point that they’re having to consistently block off dozens of seats per flight. After all, the Sydney to Dallas flight is the world’s longest 747 flight, at 8,578 miles. Chances are that the A380 could do this route without payload restrictions, so it would not only represent a massive increase in capacity, but also mean that they’d actually have the ability to maximize the loads on the flight.


Furthermore, Qantas did just re-time one of their flights from Melbourne to London, which frees up one of their A380s. They also do sometimes fly an A380 to Hong Kong, so if they swapped a plane on that route they’d potentially have two free A380s, which is enough to operate the Dallas route.




Qantas A380


Emirates


I think Emirates is highly unlikely, since they don’t partner with American, so therefore they’d be relying almost solely on passengers originating or terminating in Dallas. Also, they only fly a 777-200LR to Dallas, so aren’t even flying their larger 777-300ER to Dallas, which suggests they don’t think the demand and/or yields are there.


Why do I think it’s even a possibility? Well, the two other Middle Eastern “giants,” Etihad and Qatar, are launching service to Dallas this year, so Emirates could just be sending them a message that they’re the Middle Eastern “alpha male.” And Emirates does have the largest A380 fleet of any airline, so it wouldn’t proportionally be as much of a fleet commitment for them as it would be for other airlines.

 

[markis10]

I think Emirates is highly unlikely, since they don’t partner with American, so therefore they’d be relying almost solely on passengers originating or terminating in Dallas. Also, they only fly a 777-200LR to Dallas, so aren’t even flying their larger 777-300ER to Dallas, which suggests they don’t think the demand and/or yields are there.


Why do I think it’s even a possibility? Well, the two other Middle Eastern “giants,” Etihad and Qatar, are launching service to Dallas this year, so Emirates could just be sending them a message that they’re the Middle Eastern “alpha male.” And Emirates does have the largest A380 fleet of any airline, so it wouldn’t proportionally be as much of a fleet commitment for them as it would be for other airlines.

EK have announced DFW with the A380

Emirates will launch the first scheduled A380 service to Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport later this year.
The Gulf carrier will fly the superjumbo daily to the Texas airport from October 1.
Emirates' A380 on this route will seat 489 passengers — 14 in first class private suites, 76 lie-flat beds in business and 399 in economy.

http://www.businesstraveller.com/news/100408/emirates-to-fly-a380-daily-to-dallas

 

[Kefci2000]

EK have announced DFW with the A380

Emirates will launch the first scheduled A380 service to Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport later this year.
The Gulf carrier will fly the superjumbo daily to the Texas airport from October 1.
Emirates' A380 on this route will seat 489 passengers — 14 in first class private suites, 76 lie-flat beds in business and 399 in economy.

Emirates to fly A380 daily to Dallas - Business Traveller

Thanks markis10

i guess a bit happens in a couple of months!

 

[markis10]

Thanks markis10

i guess a bit happens in a couple of months!

Got to start building that demand up for the A380 when you have so many, paying no tax, employing staff that dont get taxed and having somewhat cheap access to fuel helps.

 

[straitman]

It took me a couple of days to find but here is some info from a test pilot friend of mine. This is a couple of years old and it seems they have not fully acted on the last line.

An interesting comparison between the Dugong and the 777 in EK service on routes they both fly.

We now operate both the 777 and the 380 to several places. It seems like the Whale has some use up to about 7hrs.

It IS very comfortable to fly in and, if you fill all those extra premium seats, there is probably money to be made. On longer routes, the fuel burn just gets unacceptable.

Two routes flown by both aircraft on the same day, DXB - LHR; A380 - Trip Fuel, 84.2T, Available Payload, 74 tonnes, utilised 73 tonnes. B777 - Trip Fuel 54.3T, Payload Available 57T, utilised 57T. 

So the Dugong was roughly comparable - not AS efficient but in the ballpark.




Now lets look at DXB – JFK; 

A380 - 

Trip Fuel 172.9T (I Chit you not!!) Available Payload 67T, utilised 52T. B777 - Trip Fuel 106.8T, Available Payload 57T, Utilised 45T. So, 65 TONNES of gas extra to haul an extra 7. Which flight do you think would be more profitable?

Rumors around of pulling the 380 off long routes, cancellation of orders, and EK being a launch customer of the 777-X.

 

[moa999]

straitman,
Interesting figures - but obviously EK has not acted on it...

Am surprised that the extra payload on the shorter route is 17T but only 10T on the longer route - which is obviously impacting the Fuel/Available Payload calc in the latter.

But then I guess its also a question of what happens if you do actually of 74/67 T of payload.
Sure the A380 may cost more on a Fuel/Available Payload calc, but otherwise you need

Two 777s with two landing/takeoff charges and associated depreciation and extra crews etc.

 

[markis10]

straitman,
Interesting figures - but obviously EK has not acted on it...

I would have thought an order for 150 of the 777x at launch was acting on it :shock:

 

[lovestotravel]

It took me a couple of days to find but here is some info from a test pilot friend of mine. This is a couple of years old and it seems they have not fully acted on the last line.

Interesting, but the newer A380's can haul an extra few tons 3 or 6 from memory and the prestige of the A380 when compared to the current 777's also helps sales/ticket prices.....

 

[harvyk]

Interesting, but the newer A380's can haul an extra few tons 3 or 6 from memory and the prestige of the A380 when compared to the current 777's also helps sales/ticket prices.....

Prestige only gets you so far...

My wife probably has about the level of knowledge that the "average traveler" has, and she doesn't even know if she is flying a plane with 2 engines or 4. She will remember the experience itself, eg did it have PTV, is the food any good, but she is totally clueless as to the type of plane she is on.

I think that Simon Cowell of all people said it best on top gear, when he said, "If you're sitting in BA F class, you don't really care what the plane looks like from the outside"

 

[Awesom Andy]

In the end, the longer the flight, the more fuel you need to carry, which reduces available payload. That has the effect of increasing costs while reducing revenue at the same time. To be honest, I'm not sure if the question asked of QF7/8 is correct. IMO, I would be asking the question, is there another place closer that I can fly to where I can receive the same revenue? At the very least, I would've cut fuel costs, crew hours, and airframe hours. That's not a bad saving.

 

[zainman]

I would have thought an order for 150 of the 777x at launch was acting on it :shock:

and ordering 40 more A380's for shorter than 7 hour flights? Maybe 2 class versions for India etc..

Thanks straitman for that post, very useful!


I think it is fair to say the 777 is the plane to beat and the 777x can only get better!

 

[markis10]

and ordering 40 more A380's for shorter than 7 hour flights? Maybe 2 class versions for India etc..

Thanks straitman for that post, very useful!


I think it is fair to say the 777 is the plane to beat and the 777x can only get better!

The first 777x delivery is 2020, I think you will find the A380 order has slots mostly before that to ensure they keep turning the fleet over. EK also ordered 50 options, so 200 in total.

 

[Awesom Andy]

The first 777x delivery is 2020, I think you will find the A380 order has slots mostly before that to ensure they keep turning the fleet over. EK also ordered 50 options, so 200 in total.

I wonder though, how would they be turning the fleet over? I can't see much of a 2nd hand market for the A380. Planes such as the 747 and the 767 made pretty good freighters, and a lot of the logistics companies don't mind having an older fleet. I can't see this happening for the A380 though.

 

[markis10]

I wonder though, how would they be turning the fleet over? I can't see much of a 2nd hand market for the A380. Planes such as the 747 and the 767 made pretty good freighters, and a lot of the logistics companies don't mind having an older fleet. I can't see this happening for the A380 though.

There are not many 767 and 747 conversions being done, case in point QF didn't bother to convert one of their own, most are just headed for the desert. There is a MRO conference on at the moment and one of the key points is that aircraft are being parted out young, I would expect that to happen to EKs A380s.

 

[TomVexille]

I wonder though, how would they be turning the fleet over? I can't see much of a 2nd hand market for the A380. Planes such as the 747 and the 767 made pretty good freighters, and a lot of the logistics companies don't mind having an older fleet. I can't see this happening for the A380 though.

EK tend to lease their newer aircraft on 10-12 year leases. They become the property (and problem) of the leasing company after that period while EK gets new planes.

 

[zainman]

There are not many 767 and 747 conversions being done, case in point QF didn't bother to convert one of their own, most are just headed for the desert. There is a MRO conference on at the moment and one of the key points is that aircraft are being parted out young, I would expect that to happen to EKs A380s.

Maybe some A380 hotel in DXB? EK museum? Endless possibilities!