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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Respiratory illness - Effect on Travel

Pushka

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I am booked in for 31 March as I am off overseas in early April.
Oh, where from? Although we will be in Bali from 27th March. Maybe there are places available. Everywhere I checked in SA started in April.
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The restrictions on Chinese Year 11 and 12 students has now been lifted unless they are coming from Hubei.
 

PineappleSkip

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Interesting NYT article reports on the development of new clusters of cases in Iran, where voters turned out for a Parliamentary Election yesterday, as well as Italy and South Korea, and on the particular problems Iran faces in dealing with its outbreak

With 4 Deaths in Iran and More Cases on 3 Continents, Fears of Coronavirus Pandemic Rise

Also some useful maps and guides

BNO news is updating another table of cases by country, but it has the advantage that each data point has its souce listed, so you can make its own judgement on its veracity.

This Singapore map shows locatin (residence?) of each case there, as well as the cluster of case infection sources that each case belongs to, as well as particulars of each case there. Another map shows cases in Hong Kong and their status

cheers skip
 
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Pushka

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Interesting NYT article reports on the development of new clusters of cases in Iran, where voters turned out for a Parliamentary Election yesterday, as well as Italy and South Korea, and on the particular problems Iran faces in dealing with its outbreak

With 4 Deaths in Iran and More Cases on 3 Continents, Fears of Coronavirus Pandemic Rise

Also some useful maps and guides

BNO news is updating another table of cases by country, but it has the advantage that each data point has its souce listed, so you can make its own judgement on its veracity.

This Singapore map shows locatin (residence?) of each case there, as well as the cluster of case infection sources that each case belongs to, as well as particulars of each case there. Another map shows cases in Hong Kong and their status

cheers skip
It’s unfortunate that Australia’s count is being artificially bumped up by the Diamond Princess evacuees. Interesting too that even though UK borders are still open to Chinese travellers hasn’t spiked up much and pretty much all recovered.
 

suze2000

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SQ is also quite accurate, once you know the rules that a blocked seat is actually assigned to someone unless it is in an exit/bulkhead row.
This is the map for one of my upcoming SQ sectors. Surely this blocked seat thing can't be correct?

Capture.PNG
 
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Nine Group newspapers ('The Age') have a major story on Sunday 23 February evening re Victoria's chief medical officer says a pandemic is 'likely, if not inevitable' but a few hours prior, the Commonwealth's equivalent (who ranks above any State ones) allegedly told us to go about our normal business.

With conflicting information like that, impossible for the vast majority who like me have minimal if any medical knowledge to know who to believe.

I've not read the full article due to a paywall but in a sense, both could be correct: the Federal gent now, and the State chap later.

Some media in the last day gave us the impression that further travel restriction easings (not just for high school students, which have a sting of conditions attached anyway) may occur soon, but if Victoria's doctor is correct in his pessimistic analysis, perhaps we won't see relaxation.

I hope the Victorian's comments don't lead to further job losses (or leave taking) in tourism and travel sectors, or even worse, panic buying in supermarkets.
 
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Nine Group newspapers ('The Age') have a major story on Sunday 23 February evening re Victoria's chief medical officer says a pandemic is 'likely, if not inevitable' but a few hours prior, the Commonwealth's equivalent (who ranks above any State ones) allegedly told us to go about our normal business.

With conflicting information like that, impossible for the vast majority who like me have minimal if any medical knowledge to know who to believe.

I've not read the full article due to a paywall but in a sense, both could be correct: the Federal gent now, and the State chap later.
I don't see why the assumption that the Federal 'ranks above' the State one. Many of these things have some political element.
 
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I don't see why the assumption that the Federal 'ranks above' the State one. Many of these things have some political element.
For the simple reason that we're a Federation with the national government's laws overriding any ones the States (or Territories) make. Here we're not talking legislation, just advice to the community. The Federal Government has access to diplomats that the States don't, while no state has the equivalent of the Dept of Foreign Affairs and Trade. There are normally protocols as well.

I'd like however to view the full article.
 

tgh

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I guess the next week or two will tell the tale , opinions are just that but the daily numbers in the free world will tell the story.
 

juddles

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And so it begins.. Phase 2…..

A sixth person in B.C. is believed to be infected with the coronavirus, and the case is raising new questions about how the disease is spreading, health officials announced Thursday.

The latest patient is a woman in her 30s who lives in the Fraser Health region, according to provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry. She had recently returned from a trip to Iran and is now recovering at home.

Henry said officials were surprised when they learned the woman had only visited Iran, and not China or neighbouring countries that have seen the bulk of COVID-19 cases.

"That could be an indicator that there's more widespread transmission. This is what we call an indicator or sentinel event
I have it on extremely good authority that the COVID-19 virus has now broken any attempts at geographical confinement and will eventually become global. Now it is a three-way issue between spread, lethality, and evolving countermeasures (vaccines, experience at dealing with it, etc) I understand that it will reach effectively everywhere, but it is, in itself, relatively benign compared to things like MERS.

The message I get (and can obviously not reveal a high-ranking source) is that yes it will arrive at your doorstep, but things are being done to slow it, and at the end of the day it is not catastrophic.
 
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juddles

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The silver lining is that travel will be mayhem over the course of this year. I agree with those that expect many bargains to appear with the desperation of airlines. The recent QF DSC offer is just the start.... :)
 

tgh

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it is not catastrophic

Perhaps not if you are <50.. but for those senior citizens with even mild immune compromise… it may well be.
We have a very elderly family member who will have buckleys if infected … for us that's a catastrophe….
 

juddles

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it is not catastrophic

Perhaps not if you are <50.. but for those senior citizens with even mild immune compromise… it may well be.
We have a very elderly family member who will have buckleys if infected … for us that's a catastrophe….
I understand your fears, but same could possibly said of any influenza or other ailment??
 

drron

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The problem is that we just don't know everything about how this virus behaves.Yes some are confident that they know just what should be done.problem is even the number of cases already is not really known.A lot believe that the Chinese numbers are very rubbery.
Again this could become a pandemic but that is not a given.So a couple of other opinions.
I think it is likely we will see a global pandemic. If a pandemic happens, 40% to 70% of people world-wide are likely to be infected in the coming year. What proportion is asymptomatic [presenting no symptoms of disease], I can't give a good number.’
Professor Marc Lipsitch
Professor of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health
Head, Harvard Center Communicable Disease Dynamics

I think this virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we'll get community based transmission and you can start to think about it like seasonal flu. The only difference is we don't understand this virus.’
Dr Robert Redfield, Director, US Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention

Even when it comes to mortality rates there are uncertainties.The mortality rates usually quoted are probably wrong.They are calculated by the percentage of deaths compared to total cases.Though those newly diagnosed haven't got to the stage of risk of death.So if you take deaths + people cleared the mortality is a lot higher than commonly stated.
So some numbers.First compared to SARS and MERS.
1582453574865.png .

Cases with outcome known.
1582453632794.png .

Those still infected.A few days out of date.
1582453689077.png .

On the other hand we have no information on how many people with this virus have no symptoms.If a considerable percentage the mortality is obviously a lot lower.
Don't expect definitive answers in the near future.
 

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