Classic award upgrade possibility better on A380 than 787?

[dsotm]

Just looking at the 50% classic economy deal for a MEL-LAX flight mid next year. Apparently upgrade requests can be made on these award tix. Just wondering if there would be more chance getting an upgrade on the bigger A380 rather than the new 787-9 when it comes online? The seating compares approximately like this;

A380: 371 Y, 35 PE, 64 J, 14 F
787-9: 166 Y 38PE, 42 J

 

[UP4014]

I guess you're more likely to get an upgrade on a plane with more seats.

 

[dsotm]

I guess you're more likely to get an upgrade on a plane with more seats.

Yep that's probably right. It's obvious isn't it! Will go for A380.

 

[mviy]

The points needed for an upgrade from an award seat are almost as much as getting a business award seat outright I think, so it’s a lot less points to just get business award seats if you can find them than getting an economy seat and upgrading to Business.

The 787 Business is a newer seat in a 1-2-1 configuration, versus 2-2-2 on the A380. There’s no lounge area on the 787 to stretch your legs.

I agree that upgrades on the A380 would probably be more likely in general to get an upgrade.

 

[mannej]

I guess you're more likely to get an upgrade on a plane with more seats.

Yep that's probably right. It's obvious isn't it! Will go for A380.

Without doing the math, does it work statistically though?

 

[offshore171]

Looking at those seat ratios posted, your best chance is the 787.

The 787 has a maximum 166 Y pax competing for what’s left in a pool of 42 J seats.

Ratio y to j is 3.9

On the a380 there’s 5.8 Y pax for every J seat. Even adding the 14 F seats still has the ratio at 4.9

I haven’t factored in the PE seats but you get the principle involved.

As always travel midweek for the best chances of J upgrades.

 

[UP4014]

To go one level deeper, you need to look at the number of people competing for an upgrade versus the number of Y passengers. Most Y passengers I would say don't compete for an upgrade as they don't know, don't have the status, don't bother.

It's the same route, so I would go for the one with the most seats (numerically) in the class you want to upgrade to.

 

[offshore171]

That’s not going deeper.

Statistically what matters is the ratio.

More or less the same proportion of the y cabin will make upgrade requests.

And more or less the same proportion of the J cabin will be available for upgrades.

 

[dsotm]

The points needed for an upgrade from an award seat are almost as much as getting a business award seat outright

Yeah, just looked at that, and 4 x J upgrades (for 2 PAX) with be 400,000 points. Sort of defeats the purpose of the original deal....

 

[mviy]

The purpose of the deal is to attract people who are only interested in flying economy to use up their points to fill seats that would otherwise be empty.