The legislation doesn't apply to Amex (yet) but Amex said they would reduce their fee to match. That being said, businesses are still allowed to pass on the Amex fee, but whether or not they do remains to be seen.
I'm 100% expecting an amex point deval in the future. I bet they want to let the dust settle and maybe acquire a few customers after all the other banks reduce, then once the market has settled devalue their points to still be competitive, but not as high as today. Probably go to 1 point per $1 for QF ultimate. I don't see why they would maintain the high earn rate if they are lowering their fee. Obviously I 100% don't want this situation being a holder of this card, just where I see things going.
Amex merchants will be unable to pass along the Amex fee, because Amex has instituted a 'no surchage' ban from 1 October. As an Amex merchant, I received a specific email from them about this.
The nuance of the RBA manoeuvres is that surcharging is not actually outlawed. What changes is that the law in place preventing networks like Mastercard and Visa from having a 'no surcharge' merchant policy is being retired from 1 October. Accordingly, MC/VI are taking the 'no surcharge' route and any merchants that don't comply are violating their merchant contract, but not breaking the law. Under the same basis, American Express, which was already exempt from RBA's 'no surcharge' prohibition, will adopt the same policy of requiring that merchants not surcharge. Those that do will again be violating their merchant agreement, in the same way as having a Mastercard or Visa surcharge.
What made me laugh is that in the comms from Amex, they advised there would be no reduction in merchant fee (not lowering their fee, as you suggest) - just that there would be no surcharges allowed. TBH, I already have an exceptional merchant rate from them, on the basis that I agreed not to treat the card any differently to Mastercard or Visa (I could still surcharge, but at no more than the rate for those cards), so I suppose their surcharge ban follows the same principle, in that Amex be treated like the other cards.
I can't see them cutting points again any time soon. They already went first and made their products only marginally better than the MC/VI alternatives, and cut back on many of the things that gave Amex added appeal (Amazon credit ended last year, dining credits end this year, Priority Pass for partners gone in a couple of weeks, lounge access cut back, etc). ANZ will still have a Visa earning 1 QFF point per $1, and 1 VFF point per $1 via ANZ Rewards... CBA apparently has a Discover card in the works to shake things up... any cut by Amex now would put them in a position where they are no better (or actually, worse) than some alternative MC/Visa products... and if they were to cut points again, as a minor card issuer compared to a big bank with excellent card acceptance, the only people who'd still use Amex would be those with huge monthly spends that go beyond the ceiling of products like ANZ. That would be a complete shift from Amex from the mainstream world into being a niche card issuer tailored to the affluent - and in that world, there's less demand for their cards, less demand for acceptance, and we're back where we were 20 years ago, where Amex was only reliably usable at the biggest chains and in purchases relating to travel, with everything else spotty. Amex has much more to gain by keeping its products at a level of appeal that encourages mainstream spenders to jump ship from the banks and use its products - it just doesn't need to be in a position where its offering is leaps and bounds better than the competition. As it is now, just a little bit better is enough to attract the punters and keep existing cardholders hooked.
