Beware the post-Corona domestic ripoff

[agentgerko]

Many people will finish this crisis with domestic credits on Jetstar, Virgin and Qantas and will look to use them maybe for holiday flights. As a TA, I've looked at domestic availability to holiday destinations like Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Ballina, Cairns, etc and even in quiet, non-school holidays periods in Oct and Nov, virtually no heavily discounted seats are available. Plenty on trunk routes BNE-SYD-MEL but not on holiday destinations. It's apparent to me that the airlines are ensuring that when people go to use their credits or vouchers for a domestic holiday post-Covid19 that they will end up having to cough up a considerable additional fare. Bad enough that in most cases they won't refund but to see them price goughing for future travel already is pretty crook.

 

[The man with no name]

Not sure it's necessarily going to play out as you suspect. After previous shocks such as SARS or 9/11 consumers have been coaxed out of hybernation by low fares. I don't expect anything less this time.

 

[RB]

Many people will finish this crisis with domestic credits on Jetstar, Virgin and Qantas and will look to use them maybe for holiday flights. As a TA, I've looked at domestic availability to holiday destinations like Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Ballina, Cairns, etc and even in quiet, non-school holidays periods in Oct and Nov, virtually no heavily discounted seats are available. Plenty on trunk routes BNE-SYD-MEL but not on holiday destinations. It's apparent to me that the airlines are ensuring that when people go to use their credits or vouchers for a domestic holiday post-Covid19 that they will end up having to cough up a considerable additional fare. Bad enough that in most cases they won't refund but to see them price goughing for future travel already is pretty crook.

Not sure when we will even be flying again? I think it is probably too early to be drawing conclusions. Are you actually getting many people wanting to lock in fares for those times?

 

[luxury-lizard]

I agree with other responses - who knows what the travel landscape will be come October - if it's all clear to travel to Australian holiday destinations - yippee - even if the airfare is a couple of hundred dollars more expensive. Let's get the Australian tourist industry back on its feet.

 

[VPS]

It won't be just the tourism industry but all those things you don't always think about - Wimbledon has been cancelled, Edinburgh fringe - all the ancillary people involved in both those events in the UK and it will be the same in Australia

 

[agentgerko]

I'm confident that domestic travel incl flights, bars, dining, etc will be back on track by mid-winter so long as the govt maintains closure on all the international border. Our isolation by sea will enable us to get through this quicker, providing we keep everyone out of Australia for the time being. The crisis will only continue if we start allowing possible carriers from other worse off countries such as the USA back in. So I do see domestic travel being back to normal mostly by Oct/Nov. Certainly the travel arrangements we have booked for people in Sept are all still operating.

 

[GoldCanyon340]

I'm confident that domestic travel incl flights, bars, dining, etc will be back on track by mid-winter so long as the govt maintains closure on all the international border. Our isolation by sea will enable us to get through this quicker, providing we keep everyone out of Australia for the time being. The crisis will only continue if we start allowing possible carriers from other worse off countries such as the USA back in. So I do see domestic travel being back to normal mostly by Oct/Nov. Certainly the travel arrangements we have booked for people in Sept are all still operating.

In my opinion domestic travel will not return to anything approaching pre-Covid levels UNTIL inbound tourism is up and running. Even then it could take 24 months (my stab in the dark).

 

[agentgerko]

Of course it won't reach pre-virus levels without inbound tourism, but we don't want to permit inbound tourism until we are 100% that the people arriving are virus-clear. What I was saying is that domestic travel for Australians will be back up and running. Things like the train trip to Canberra, the holiday on the Gold Coast or the road trip to Tamworth. Domestic travel inside Australia by Australians.

 

[GoldCanyon340]

Things like the train trip to Canberra, the holiday on the Gold Coast or the road trip to Tamworth. Domestic travel inside Australia by Australians.

Your question though was about QF, VA and JQ price gouging. Train rides, road trips and possibly even a holiday on the Gold Coast do not involve the airlines.

 

[Mattg]

Your question though was about QF, VA and JQ price gouging. Train rides, road trips and possibly even a holiday on the Gold Coast do not involve the airlines.

Very true. But the issue of domestic airfare price gouging could be highly relevant to the tens of thousands of people stuck with airline credit vouchers that they may or may not have wanted.

 

[GoldCanyon340]

Very true. But the issue of domestic airfare price gouging could be highly relevant to the tens of thousands of people stuck with airline credit vouchers that they may or may not have wanted.

It's an interesting one this. If VA does receive federal assistance, our taxes, then what would be the public response to that company unacceptably raising prices? If QF does not receive assistance then it could claim it needs extra income to 'level the playing field'. This is all probably being covered on other threads but I haven't read them due to too much Amazon Prime and SBS On Demand.

 

[jb747]

I expect that aircraft will trickle back into the skies. The airline(s) will be in no hurry to start up operations that need to be flown either empty or at discount prices. So, as the number of seats increases, so too will the availability of lower pricing. But, if the number of seats remains well below what was available previously, so too will any available discounts.

Of course, the real question is whether there will be any airlines to restart. Virgin is already very shaky. QF international won’t be able to restart any time soon, and I suspect the overhang from shutting down international entirely would likely bring down the entire company. Six months from now it won’t be about discount fares, it will be the complete lack of any fares.

 

[ethernet]

I'm confident that domestic travel incl flights, bars, dining, etc will be back on track by mid-winter so long as the govt maintains closure on all the international border. Our isolation by sea will enable us to get through this quicker, providing we keep everyone out of Australia for the time being. The crisis will only continue if we start allowing possible carriers from other worse off countries such as the USA back in. So I do see domestic travel being back to normal mostly by Oct/Nov. Certainly the travel arrangements we have booked for people in Sept are all still operating.

So the plan is also to keep Australians stranded overseas' stranded and not welcome back. Only the politicians are not saying this. Maybe thestates dont have to pay for 14 days of Hotel accom. Never mind visa and passport expiry dates.

I stated elsewhere there are antibody tests, and even if these are claimed to be somewhat unreliable, 2 tests 11 days apart brings it up to 99.9% I believe. the Airlines can choose their pax and crew on this basis, and keep on flying.

 

[juddles]

I'm confident that domestic travel incl flights, bars, dining, etc will be back on track by mid-winter....I do see domestic travel being back to normal mostly by Oct/Nov. C.....

agentgerko, I admire your positive nature But, perhaps, your direct involvement and needs from the aviation industry may be preventing you seeing the large print on the Wall...

I would tentatively agree with your prediction that "domestic travel incl flights, bars, dining, etc will be back on track by mid-winter" - but as long as you are thinking 2021, not this year.

 

[juddles]

I expect that aircraft will trickle back into the skies. The airline(s) will be in no hurry to start up operations that need to be flown either empty or at discount prices. So, as the number of seats increases, so too will the availability of lower pricing. But, if the number of seats remains well below what was available previously, so too will any available discounts.

Of course, the real question is whether there will be any airlines to restart. Virgin is already very shaky. QF international won’t be able to restart any time soon, and I suspect the overhang from shutting down international entirely would likely bring down the entire company. Six months from now it won’t be about discount fares, it will be the complete lack of any fares.

I agree with all your points.

With regard to Qantas, they were always on a bit of a tightrope. But I do think they will eventually re-blossom in their domestic market, which will also underpin an attached international arm. Even though the Aussie market is tiny, in global terms, we are rich enough as a country to travel a lot and pay for it.

Virgin is a much harder beast. They have been in eternal struggle. The realty that they are effectively "foreign owned" will hurt their chances of spectacular saving at the aussie public purse.

But most of all I agree with your reality check about "six months from now". There seem to be so many that have yet to grasp just how long this Corona thing will cause harm. I think that the way that Australia is manging this whole thing is with a very long-term focus. Simply to save lives, rather than the economy, which I agree with. We have managed to quell Corona somewhat with the level of lockdown we have. But we have not yet entered the southern hemisphere winter season.

And international travel in general?? In the coming weeks we will see an obscene impact in the USA, And myriad other less affluent countries will be delivered hammer blows. This is a thing where even the poorer countries are attempting lockdowns - with the roll-on effect that they will be stuffed economically for years.

Any person who has not yet grasped the fact that international tourism has been stuffed for several years is in denial.

 

[ethernet]

Pragmatic is missing in action.

The curve is an overreaction to inadequate hospital capacity, in turn driven by refusal to accept foreign findings. The magic bullet agreed by groupthink wont be here in less than 14 months. Two years of sustained ecomomic vandalism is planned. Trump has already worked out a vaccine will NOT be out before election time, and does not like that.

The various Australian States are not playing ball, but playing cost shifting /avoidance because face it, NT and Tassie are broke. No confidence means less pie for all. or we can pop tablets and be up and running in 2 months. I think the fear here, is that if the virus mutates because of the tablets, the clock gets reset.

Holidays. Cheaper petrol means driving will be economical, so Airlines should not try cook that goose, But like the petrol stations - they will. Thing is, 2 years of debt and no promotions will see new deep pockets. We lacked a recovey for eight years, and bar reform, wont go forward. Airlines must renegotiate lease payments.



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