Bernstein Research: Airbus A350 first delivery likely delayed to 2014

[NM]

From ATW Daily News:

Bernstein Research forecast that A350 deliveries will slip into 2014 and that Airbus will deliver only eight of the next-generation aircraft that year, flagging a significant slippage in the program.

Why do I get the feeling we are never going to see another new airliners delivered on time?

 

[samh004]

Why do the major manufacturers always give expected ship days they can’t meet is the better question. They must have an idea of what sort of delays could happen, and surely shipping on time or even early is better than repeated delays?

 

[oz_mark]

I wonder what the basis for their prediction is.

 

[NM]

Why do the major manufacturers always give expected ship days they can’t meet is the better question. They must have an idea of what sort of delays could happen, and surely shipping on time or even early is better than repeated delays?

You have obviously never worked on IT projects. The people making the original schedule estimates have no concept of the reality of task durations and possible delays.

 

[simongr]

Why do the major manufacturers always give expected ship days they can’t meet is the better question. They must have an idea of what sort of delays could happen, and surely shipping on time or even early is better than repeated delays?

The original plans would have included expected delays and contingencies - they have now been all used up and the date has to slip. As ever with big projects the general principle is that you can 2 out of 3: on time, on budget or on spec - never 3/3...

 

[codash1099]

I wonder what the basis for their prediction is.

Indeed. According to the article, only two months ago the same firm predicted that Airbus would deliver four A350s in 2013 and 18 in 2014. That's a significant change, especially given that Airbus are saying that their data does not confirm the new forecast.

But, as always,

 

[UP4014]

Has any aircraft ever been delivered on time?

 

[NM]

Has any aircraft ever been delivered on time?

777 was supposed to set a new record for certification timeline. Not sure if it met the original delivery schedule??