Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[exceladdict]

Sorry I don't mean this to be a personal attack but this person felt "unwell" (which could be, wait for it, a runny nose) then got tested and yet this individual will somehow come under pressure? For what, deportation for becoming sick?

It was initially reported he felt sick from the Sunday, went clubbing anyway, and didn't get a test until Wednesday. That part has not gone down well; especially with those now forced to isolate over Christmas (in particular the 100 or so backpackers that have now been put in hotel quarantine).

I am surprised that the backpacker was able to enter WA without being vaccinated, WA were talking about it but it looks like it wasn’t implemented.

When the backpacker entered WA, Qld was at the Very Low Risk level. There was no requirement to be vaccinated.

But QLD and WA won’t reopen until Vax rates are up. Strange logic

Unless I misheard, Mark added yesterday that they had received advice suggesting prohibiting unvaccinated people from travelling from a 'very low risk' location at the time would likely not have withstood a legal challenge.

How did the armchair experts identify the backpacker as the index case anyway? Preemptive telepathic genomic sequencing?

Contact tracing

Very little has been published about their movements in QLD prior to travelling to WA.

 

[Quickstatus]

likely not have withstood a legal challenge.

The Spin department working overtime

This is only because the WA classified Queensland as a “very low risk” meaning that no vaccination required.

Of course legally they are bound by their own rules - hence the “would not have withstood a legal challenge.

Question is: if WA is telling their citizens to get the Covid2Jab why are they saying people from other states don’t need a vaccination to enter.

Edit: vaccinations replace with quarantine

 

[Must...Fly!]

That part has not gone down well; especially with those now forced to isolate over Christmas

The person who received a positive test result didn't put them in to quarantine. The government did. Their anger/disappointment/resentment is directed the wrong way.

 

[JohnM]

One could argue as its last visit was to southern Africa it is entirely unwelcome.

Quite the contrary as far as I'm concerned.

All we wanted needed for Christmas was Omicron.

Still nothing that I have seen to say definitively which variant has appeared in WA.

The sooner Omicron renders this thing endemic, the better IMO.

 

[N860CR]

The Spin department working overtime

This is only because the WA classified Queensland as a “very low risk” meaning that no vaccination required.

Of course legally they are bound by their own rules - hence the “would not have withstood a legal challenge.

Question is: if WA is telling their citizens to get the Covid2Jab why are they saying people from other states don’t need a vaccination to enter.

View attachment 267752

While inside WA airspace! HA! I missed this. WA does not have airspace. That’s a federal control. Seriously, this country has gone nuts!

 

[Must...Fly!]

Meanwhile, in South Africa where Omicron has been the dominant strain for over a month.

Revision to contact tracing, quarantine and isolation protocols - NICD

The following revisions have been accepted based on the COVID-19 MAC advisories Contact Tracing All contact tracing be stopped with immediate effect except in congregate settings and cluster outbreak situations or self-contained settings. All contacts must continue with their normal duties with...

www.nicd.ac.za

I am starting to feel a little bit more confident about a month in Europe in March.

 

[oz_mark]

2 more cases in WA.
And the backpacker had delta.

 

[N860CR]

Meanwhile, in South Africa where Omicron has been the dominant strain for over a month.

Revision to contact tracing, quarantine and isolation protocols - NICD

The following revisions have been accepted based on the COVID-19 MAC advisories Contact Tracing All contact tracing be stopped with immediate effect except in congregate settings and cluster outbreak situations or self-contained settings. All contacts must continue with their normal duties with...

www.nicd.ac.za

I am starting to feel a little bit more confident about a month in Europe in March.

But but… Megatron! Spread the curve! Cannot compute

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

9993 positives in Australia reported today according to covidlive.

Tomorrow might be a low testing day.

 

[N860CR]

Tomorrow might be a low testing day.

Lets hope that’s a sign of things to come

 

[clifford]

Lets hope that’s a sign of things to come

I guess that you must be an advocate of the Trump approach, reduce testing and the cases will go down.

Simple....

 

[N860CR]

I guess that you must be an advocate of the Trump approach, reduce testing and the cases will go down.

Simple....

Well you said it. And it’s correct.

We don’t routinely test for any other mild virus. So you honestly think it’s reasonable to have people lining up for hours at a time to be tested for a virus that is rarely severe, and 95% of the population is vaccinated against?

 

[Quickstatus]

advocate of the Trump approach, reduce testing and the cases will go down.

Just a silly comment.

It is not possible to test ourselves out of a pandemic. This is because of the time lag between infection and positive PCR.
.....................
Also:......

Look up “positive predictive value” on YouTube/Google or even better a Statistic textbook and you will see that increasing testing does not necessarily give you accurate data. Too much testing reduces the positive predictive value (the probability that people with a positive test truly have the disease). Testing in a targeted way eg of symptomatic pts only will improve the positive predictive value

To avoid Trump derangement Symdrome please read the NSW Health paper on Covid PCR testing accuracy


Lets do some sums:

Using today's testing nubers;
Total tests 300000
Total reported positives 10000
By definition this 10000 would be = total true positive plus total false positive.

Lets assume The pre test probability of a positive result of 3.33% which is approx 10000/300000
(The Delta wave earlier this year reported a pre test probability of about 1%)

So if you do the sums as per NSW health website using Sensitivity at 95% and specificity at 99.9%:
The false negatives would be 500
The false positives would be 300

That means there are approx 500 people today who think they are negative but are in fact positive AND therefore spreading covid around and 300 who were told they were positive but are in fact truly negative - they get to isolate unnecessarily and cause all the social disruption that that entails.


Lets say that we are going to reduce testing by saying to people test only if symptomatic or close contact.
So less people will be testing and so lets assume the pre test probability increases to 50% (using the NSW Health paper) but say that 10000 tests are done
The false negative = 250
The false positive = 5

Less false negative and less false positive. Thats a good thing.
Set up a Excel spreadsheet and play around with the numbers.

Trump likes using the word "false". It is also apt in this context.

But the take home messsge is: targeted testing can reduce the false positive and false negative cases.
Reduce indiscrimimate testing = improved accuracy, save money, improved test result turnaround for people like @straitman , reduces social disruption overall, better modelling, and better allocation of resources.

 

[drron]

As an old ad line said - there are other ways. Maybe daily RAT testing. Or as one of the more rational experts said in reply to pseudo expert Norman Swan.

 

[N860CR]

Just a silly comment.

It is not possible to test ourselves out of a pandemic. This is because of the time lag between infection and positive PCR.
.....................
Also:......

Look up “positive predictive value” on YouTube/Google or even better a Statistic textbook and you will see that increasing testing does not necessarily give you accurate data. Too much testing reduces the positive predictive value (the probability that people with a positive test truly have the disease). Testing in a targeted way eg of symptomatic pts only will improve the positive predictive value

To avoid Trump derangement Symdrome please read the NSW Health paper on Covid PCR testing accuracy


Lets do some sums:

Using today's testing nubers;
Total tests 300000
Total reported positives 10000
By definition this 10000 would be = total true positive plus total false positive.

Lets assume The pre test probability of a positive result of 3.33% which is approx 10000/300000
(The Delta wave earlier this year reported a pre test probability of about 1%)

So if you do the sums as per NSW health website using Sensitivity at 95% and specificity at 99.9%:
The false negatives would be 500
The false positives would be 300

That means there are approx 500 people today who think they are negative but are in fact positive AND therefore spreading covid around and 300 who were told they were positive but are in fact truly negative - they get to isolate unnecessarily and cause all the social disruption that that entails.


Lets say that we are going to reduce testing by saying to people test only if symptomatic or close contact.
So less people will be testing and so lets assume the pre test probability increases to 50% (using the NSW Health paper) but say that 10000 tests are done
The false negative = 250
The false positive = 5

Less false negative and less false positive. Thats a good thing.
Set up a Excel spreadsheet and play around with the numbers.

Trump likes using the word "false". It is also apt in this context.

But the take home messsge is: targeted testing can reduce the false positive and false negative cases.
Reduce indiscrimimate testing = improved accuracy, save money, improved test result turnaround for people like @straitman , reduces social disruption overall, better modelling, and better allocation of resources.

It’s hard to debate covid crazy people. They have no logical arguments and are struggling to accept that things have changed from 2020. None have an idea as to how we move forward.

Post automatically merged: Dec 25, 2021

As an old ad line said - there are other ways. Maybe daily RAT testing. Or as one of the more rational experts said in reply to pseudo expert Norman Swan.
View attachment 267772

Good old Swan. Another attention seeker with no idea who realizes his 15 minutes are over.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Good old Swan. Another attention seeker with no idea who realizes his 15 minutes are over.

If only we could get the producers at the ABC to understand that.

 

[kpc]

Wow....109545 tests in NSW incl us on Xmas day! 6394 new cases and hospitalisations and ICU numbers creeping up!

 

[Lynda2475]

109545 tests in NSW incl us on Xmas day

And that was with majority of the private pathology run (aka drive through) test sites closed. The NSW health workers at the hospital test site i went to yesterday were working their butts off, the demand was huge and hundreds turned away.

 

[drron]

If only we could get the producers at the ABC to understand that.

Norman isn't the only one they need to fact check. This is one of the most ridiculous covid stories I have read.An older QLD couple who are worried that a trip to Victoria in January is dangerous as they couldn't get a booster until April having only had their second AZ dose in early November!

Many over-60s who received an AstraZeneca vaccine are still not eligible for a booster. Are they vulnerable to Omicron?

Linda Fisher and her husband Ken are members of Generation AZ — the group of those aged over 60 who lined up for an AstraZeneca vaccine, the only one available to their age group for some time. But the three month delay between vaccine one and two has also pushed back their booster. Are they at...

www.abc.net.au

 

[justinbrett]

Wow....109545 tests in NSW incl us on Xmas day! 6394 new cases and hospitalisations and ICU numbers creeping up!

I think it’s actually test results returned, not swabs taken, so likely clearing the backlog. Open to be corrected but this is how it’s been previously.