Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[mbell1510]

If going forward means from today, what do you think policy should be for say, the next 2 months?

For starters it would be to stop fearmongering that everyone is going to die if they get the virus and highlight the 99% chance of recovering. Secondly admit suppression is the new pathway forward until we reach vaccination milestones. Each milestone removes a layer of restrictions. With only 28% full vaccinated no one is talking about removing all restrictions, even the UK didn't do that.

A change I would make right now is to accept people are visiting other homes and we can't stop it. Instead, lets encourage people to socialise in outdoor public spaces in small groups. This would get people into a safer environment and in turn the police could enforce it better.

UK spring roadmap I think is a pretty good pathway forward for us, especially in NSW: COVID-19 Response - Spring 2021 (Summary)

 

[burmans]

Well you could tighten up the definition of essential. e.g. is construction really essential?

 

[Must...Fly!]

Well you could tighten up the definition of essential. e.g. is construction really essential?

I just took my bicycle down to the local bike shop for some TLC. Is that essential?

In some people's eyes, absolutely not. To me, absolutely yes.

Basically my point - we shouldn't be having this discussion 18 months in.

 

[bcworld]

Update from the premier's friend:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1428153165409505287

 

[justinbrett]

I just took my bicycle down to the local bike shop for some TLC. Is that essential?

In some people's eyes, absolutely not. To me, absolutely yes.

Basically my point - we shouldn't be having this discussion 18 months in.

I would say no. It doesn't meet any of the definitions in the NSW essential businesses list. Nike isn't open so you can't go buy running shoes or clothes.

The onus is also on you to only leave home for essential reasons.

This is what Kerry Chant was saying about "You know the intent, stop looking for loopholes"

 

[Must...Fly!]

I would say no. It doesn't meet any of the definitions in the NSW essential businesses list. Nike isn't open so you can't go buy running shoes or clothes.

The onus is also on you to only leave home for essential reasons.

This is what Kerry Chant was saying about "You know the intent, stop looking for loopholes".

OK fine, let's play the game.

I'm an essential worker. My bicycle is my transport to and from work.

Is it essential now that my bike is maintained so it is safe to ride?

 

[oznflfan]

Here's my somewhat tongue in cheek thoughts for the next few months, and a little beyond...

1) Wait a little to prove - most likely - that no curfews or lockdowns, short of the Wuhan style nailing of doors shut, will stop Delta, and certainly will not stop it from returning again, and again.
2) Maintain a level of lockdown which focuses on BIG problem spots (sorry, SW/W Sydney), but also overall minimization of the short-to-mid term spread (2-3 months). Accept flattening or flatness as 'good'. No further hardening of lockdowns.
3) Stop panicking about case numbers - track it; make it available to check; but focus only on infectious in the community and/or serious adverse conditions or deaths. Remind people that >99% of these people were not [fully/historically] vaccinated, or have serious co-morbidities, including advanced age. Remind people in addition that close to 500 people die in Australia from other causes every. single. day.
4) Allow fully vaccinated to mix with other fully vaccinated in certain environments (own home with limited numbers, outdoor events, outdoor F&B).
5) Advise at a national level of mandatory vaccinations or +ve recovery passes (as we see in some other nations) in as many environments as is possible. Develop a process for similar digital passes for those who are medically unable to be vaccinated.
6) Vaccinate vaccinate vaccinate - admit to all that it's not fair on the country and it's people to try and stop the spread by indefinitely stopping life for 100% of people. Everyone who can, must be vaccinated as soon as is practicably possible, and with whichever brand of vaccine they can get into their arms.
7) Grin and bare it for a while.
8) Mid November: Reach the fabled 80% target of double-dose protection nation-wide
9) Tell those who are at risk by choice that we are done, now, and it is now up to them to look after themselves - continue to encourage shots for all that can, on the basis of the billions of sample data points, with only the tiniest fractions of risk, and definitely no microchips or 5G coverage.
10) Let it rip.
11) Enjoy Christmas with a family that we haven't seen in 18 months, in whatever part of Australia, or god's good earth that you so choose.
12) Hear about an odd virus circulating in some part of the world, code named SARS-CoV-3 / COVID-22...
13) Read story about WA still closed and with a State-wide ring of steel, 30% vaccinated and pushing hard for COVID-19 zero

Cheers,
Matt.

Very well written.

1. Agree
2. Agree
3. Agree
4. Agree
5. Agree
6. Agree
7. Agree
8. No chance, maybe 70% at some stage in first half of 2022.
9. Agree wholehartedly
10. In 2022 sometime.
11. No, Christmas absolute Lockdown Australia wide*. * maybe WA + TAS might be luck - sorry.
12. Don't think so.
13. By mid year I think McGowan will pull his head in, but WA need a major uncontrolled and permanent outbreak and high vaccinations for that to happen.

 

[Seat0B]

And bottle shops! But as a civilised country they can buy alcohol in supermarkets.

Well as Australia no longer exists as a country, I would like to point out that you can buy alcohol in the supermarkets in the civilised country of the ACT

 

[justinbrett]

OK fine, let's play the game.

I'm an essential worker. My bicycle is my transport to and from work.

Is it essential now that my bike is maintained so it is safe to ride?

Well, car servicing remains open. I guess both you and the business would have to be able to justify that to NSW police.

This is why I support the NSW approach of a framework of rules rather than spelling everything out to the T. If they did, now you're upset. Currently, you're probably OK.

 

[bcworld]

All of NSW staying in lockdown to Aug 28.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW - 681 cases....

 

[Must...Fly!]

Well, car servicing remains open. I guess both you and the business would have to be able to justify that to NSW police.

This is why I support the NSW approach of a framework of rules rather than spelling everything out to the T. If they did, now you're upset. Currently, you're probably OK.

Except I'm in Victoria where the rules are more or less spelled out to the T....

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

NSW - 681 cases....

Positive words though, acknowledging the need to live with delta, very good indeed.

 

[There'sOnlyOneJimmy]

Except I'm in Victoria where the rules are more or less spelled out to the T....

In which case, it would appear to be in accordance with the rules.
Refer to Part 3, Clause 6 (1) (c) (viI) below... (assuming the bike shop is operating within the rules)

PART 3 — REASONS TO LEAVE PREMISES OR TO ENTER METROPOLITAN MELBOURNE
6 Leaving premises or entering or leaving Metropolitan Melbourne to obtain necessary goods or services
(1) The reasons relating to necessary goods or services are to obtain:
(a) take away food or drink; or
Note: a person who ordinarily resides in Metropolitan Melbourne may not leave their premises to have a dine-in meal at any location.
(b) goods and services for health or medical purposes (including vaccinations); or
(c) other necessary goods or services, including (but not limited to) goods or services provided by:
(i) a financial institution;
(ii) a government body or government agency;
(iii) a post office;
(iv) a pharmac_;
(v) a petrol station;
(vi) a pet store or veterinary clinic;
(vii) a retail facility that is permitted to operate under, and is operating in accordance with, the Restricted Activity Directions (Metropolitan Melbourne).

 

[Seat0B]

Stop aiming for zero COVID-19 cases: CSL boss

Paul Perreault says the virus is not going away any time soon, so we must learn to live with it and encourage vaccinations.

www.afr.com

Paywalled but sounds interesting and relevant.

 

[justinbrett]

Except I'm in Victoria where the rules are more or less spelled out to the T....

So if Victoria makes bike stores permissible, and NSW doesn't - except if you can justify that it's essential, you think the Victorian approach is better?

The permissible businesses list is pretty similar between the states. I'm sure there are grey areas on either side.

 

[Seat0B]

Here's my somewhat tongue in cheek thoughts for the next few months, and a little beyond...

1) Wait a little to prove - most likely - that no curfews or lockdowns, short of the Wuhan style nailing of doors shut, will stop Delta, and certainly will not stop it from returning again, and again.
2) Maintain a level of lockdown which focuses on BIG problem spots (sorry, SW/W Sydney), but also overall minimization of the short-to-mid term spread (2-3 months). Accept flattening or flatness as 'good'. No further hardening of lockdowns.
3) Stop panicking about case numbers - track it; make it available to check; but focus only on infectious in the community and/or serious adverse conditions or deaths. Remind people that >99% of these people were not [fully/historically] vaccinated, or have serious co-morbidities, including advanced age. Remind people in addition that close to 500 people die in Australia from other causes every. single. day.
4) Allow fully vaccinated to mix with other fully vaccinated in certain environments (own home with limited numbers, outdoor events, outdoor F&B).
5) Advise at a national level of mandatory vaccinations or +ve recovery passes (as we see in some other nations) in as many environments as is possible. Develop a process for similar digital passes for those who are medically unable to be vaccinated.
6) Vaccinate vaccinate vaccinate - admit to all that it's not fair on the country and it's people to try and stop the spread by indefinitely stopping life for 100% of people. Everyone who can, must be vaccinated as soon as is practicably possible, and with whichever brand of vaccine they can get into their arms.
7) Grin and bare it for a while.
8) Mid November: Reach the fabled 80% target of double-dose protection nation-wide
9) Tell those who are at risk by choice that we are done, now, and it is now up to them to look after themselves - continue to encourage shots for all that can, on the basis of the billions of sample data points, with only the tiniest fractions of risk, and definitely no microchips or 5G coverage.
10) Let it rip.
11) Enjoy Christmas with a family that we haven't seen in 18 months, in whatever part of Australia, or god's good earth that you so choose.
12) Hear about an odd virus circulating in some part of the world, code named SARS-CoV-3 / COVID-22...
13) Read story about WA still closed and with a State-wide ring of steel, 30% vaccinated and pushing hard for COVID-19 zero

Cheers,
Matt.

@dairyfloss for PM! You’ve got my vote.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Most encouraging and realistic NSW Premier has been in a long while, great to see

 

[justinbrett]

Gladys is clearly saying we will not be going for covid zero post 80%. A "co-existance" with Delta.

Very refreshing. Just need the other 5 premiers, 2 chief ministers and 2 prime ministers to say the same.

 

[dairyfloss]

Most encouraging and realistic NSW Premier has been in a long while, great to see

A real spring in her step today! It's very refreshing. Acceptance, and the relief it can bring is an amazing thing. Having Shane Fitzsimmons (Head of Resilience NSW and previously the Commissioner of the NSW Rural Fire Service) there this morning was a great addition, as well