Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

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We should all go back through this thread and quote ourselves on everything we got 'right', being AFF accredited public health experts 😂 :rolleyes:


You missed the point as in the first post I posed the observation/question that in a week or so we would know...

In just over a week we will know if they acted too late, or just in time.

With the just over a week being up I was now commenting on which way it had gone. Unfortunately it has gone the way I had feared, rather than the way I had hoped.
 
I note NSW Government had started their foreshadowing of making an exclusion zone of the border towns. Have they (the public) learnt from the Vic experience?

I think with the bordertowns too I think it more that having a border within what is in effect a single town is a practical and logistical nightmare . So with cases in these towns being few or zero that it makes more sense to make them all bubbles and to enforce the border on the edge of the bubble rather than within it.
 
Also note that the 2 Canberran didn’t heed the foreshadowing from their government to not travel to hotspots and that caused 3 cases in ACT reported yesterday.
We have become very complacent in the ACT because we have had no community spread and so few cases. The ones who brought it from Melbourne were early twenty year olds - they always think they are invulnerable at that age (which is a good thing generally).
 
I think with the bordertowns too I think it more that having a border within what is in effect a single town is a practical and logistical nightmare . So with cases in these towns being few or zero that it makes more sense to make them all bubbles and to enforce the border on the edge of the bubble rather than within it.
I take your point, but I also heard Or seem to recall somewhere that there were about three known cases in Albury/Wodonga maybe 2 or 3 days ago.

and since Vics haven’t locked down Wodonga, it’s hard for NsW to even consider lockdown for Albury for those three cases.

So it’s also a form of foreshadowing. Also in this instance with the Vic school holidays (and all other school holidays), NSW Premier seem to be saying all of NsW is now high risk (translation: please get tested if have symptoms, practice social distancing Etc.) I’m just hoping to not have a ripple effect (being delayed Vic action actually makes NSW delay their action too long) ....sigh.
 
Also it’s hard when doing things the first time (ie having to re-lockdown).

Also note that the 2 Canberran didn’t heed the foreshadowing from their government to not travel to hotspots and that caused 3 cases in ACT reported yesterday.

Think the only lesson is you've got to lockdown quickly - otherwise you can lose control very easily. Sadly a lesson not heeded by Vic, and possibly the same with the NSW border (we will need to wait another week)

Is it confirmed the Canberra residents had visited hotspots after the announcements?
 
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Think the only lesson is you've got to lockdown quickly - otherwise you can lose control very easily. Sadly a lesson not heeded by Vic, and possibly the same with the NSW border (we will need to wait another week)

Is it confirmed the Canberra residents had visited hotspots after the announcements?
You might be right at a theoretical level, but pragmatically locking down 5 million people (Melbourne metro) for 20 cases that day (even if it was say A trend of 10-20 - so less than say 100 total) seems potentially problematic.

and keep note around the start of Vic school holidays I’m pretty sure I wrote something to the effect that it was problematic....if you wanted to look.
 
Another 13 for NSW today. 11 in hotel quarantine, and the 2 in Albury from a few days ago now confirmed.

One of these had visited Melbourne's and reportedly there is at least another family member who is showing symptoms.
 
It’s probably the case that governments cannot impose harder conditions without evidence. (Ie more than 20 for hotspots, almost 1:100 for towers, and more than 150 for a Melbourne metro).

But the evidence was there.

With the towers they acted at well below 1;100 which would be 30 cases. They shutdown the towers at 12 cases, and within days of the first case. From commentary they knew they had a problem the day prior. So in this case they acted swiftly to close the spread down. ie Only a day or two for dramatic control measures.


Professor Sutton said the first Cedar Meats employee to test positive for coronavirus received the diagnosis on April 2, but had told authorities that he had not been at work for four weeks before becoming unwell.
A second worker tested positive on April 24. After a third worker tested positive on April 26, the health department shut the abattoir on April 29 and told its 350 staff to self-isolate.

On Thursday, Professor Sutton said if he could go back in time, he would shut the abattoir down after the second case.
"It was the first meatworks outbreak in Australia. I think even two linked cases is probably enough to shut a place down and probably regardless of size
,"



By the time of the tower shutdown there were quite a number of clusters well above two. Yes workplaces since have been acted reasonably promptly with the notable exception of the two quarantine hotels, but clusters forming around other centres of mixing and in particular parents of schools mixing seemingly did not have any specific action to target the group, just close contacts of individuals affected.

The Al-Taqwa College cluster total now stands at 102. Cedar Meats by comparison I think is 106? Why are there no special measures on school parents?

So if we take Sutton at his word that two linked cases was enough to shutdown a workplace, why was this logic not also extended to when there was a clear pattern of many sizeable clusters well above two linked cases occurring around two types of situations 1/parents mixing at schools and 2/family gatherings. Why were stronger steps not taken earlier to try and curtail this?

With schools, student to adult transmission and student to student transmission may be rare, but adult to adult transmission amongst their parents seems to have been rife at many schools in the northern suburbs. Mainly private religious based ones of many different faiths, but also public schools.

The pattern seems to be get some cases, clean the school, isolate direct contacts, but with things bubbling along with little specific being done to control the community spread beyond these initial measures. The delay on schools returning would seem to be a belated reaction to it. Ditto on family gatherings.

And indeed cases really started to balloon in particular with family gathering sizes being relaxed. It took way too long to act on this.
 
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I'd be interested to know what events took place at the school? Certainly parents picking up kids (and presumably staying in the car or observing social distance) shouldn't cause a cluster that big.

But I think if this 6wk Stage 3 gets numbers back under control in Melbourne they need a firm policy for future lockdowns.

Eg.
More than 5 in a postcode within 7 days - that postcode and any surrounding back to Stage 3.
More than 5 in an apartment block (whether public housing or private) stricter measures (may not need to be full lockdown for blocks without shared laundries etc)
 
But the evidence was there.

With the towers they acted at well below 1;100 which would be 30 cases. They shutdown the towers at 12 cases, and within days of the first case. From commentary they knew they had a problem the day prior. So in this case they acted swiftly to close the spread down. ie Only a day or two for dramatic control measures.
My recollection was 23 cases when the Hard lockdown of the towers was justifiable Immediately...and I think an additional 3 definite case that morning So 26/3000
 
I think the school cluster came about from the large family gatherings and not from the school itself.
 
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Why are there no special measures on school parents?
I have heard anecdotally that schools are asking for less parent to adult contact in and around school drop off and pickup times.

ediT: schools can’t really go to regulating every aspect of a parent’s life eg weekends, dinners
 
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Social distancing still past history in Qld.
Sitting ducks us….
I think that the issue with significant parts of Wa and Sa and Tas As well....and probably emerging in nsw

Live back to normal and so relxed and thinking everything is ok.
 
I think the school cluster came about from the large family gatherings and not from the school itself.

I think it is a mixture of both family gatherings, and also gatherings of school non-family related parents who are not related. These gatherings of the parents are not just at the school gates. Anyone who has had kids at school knows that parents tend to form friendships and social groups and events from having met one another via your child's school.

One of the Keilor clusters was linked to a large social non-family gathering with cases of their kids at school then showing up later. The parents were the spreaders.

With Cedar Meats later review also indicated that infection was also via social contact outside of work as well as most likely at work. Case 1 had no work contact while infectious at Cedar Meats, but was later shown to have had social contacts with others who were still working there.
 
South Australians returning from Victoria must self isolate for 14 days and have a pre authorized COVID test within 24 hours and another at 12 days and wear a mask when attending. Supplied with 3 at the border.
 
I have heard anecdotally that schools are asking for less parent to adult contact in and around school drop off and pickup times.

ediT: schools can’t really go to regulating every aspect of a parent’s life eg weekends, dinners


I agree on both points.


But the government could act, but didn't till way too late. Evidence has been there for a while that private gatherings whether of family members or just friends was generating cases. But yet the limit on numbers was not reduced till way till late, and then initially till only till 5.

I think with schools that they are mainly clusters as they meant that parents new each other, and met away from the school gate. ie drop the kids at school and them meet at home for coffee afterwards. BBQ at weekend etc. It is easy to be comfortable with friends and social distancing then goes out the window.

With religious schools it is also probably more common that families will have cousins attend the same school. So again the school may seem to link them, but the spread comes from family gatherings, as well mixing with other non-family adults.
 
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South Australians returning from Victoria must self isolate for 14 days and have a pre authorized COVID test within 24 hours and another at 12 days and wear a mask when attending. Supplied with 3 at the border.
With masks, 3 might be enough (1 entry, 1 first test, 1 second test) but i hope they are told how to use correctly and give additional masks before any needed additional tests
 
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