Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

Lynda2475

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This article goes through the timeline and also has demographic details, like that 2 of the cases are over 70 so have been eligible for a vaccine since before Easter.


"We have to start with case five — the man in his 60s — to explain who got sick first. He first displayed symptoms of coronavirus on May 17 and got tested on May 24.

He met with a man in his 30s — known as case one in this cluster — on May 18. This is where health officials believe the virus was passed on from case five to case one.

In the following days, case one passed on the virus to four members of his household, including a pre-school child, a grandfather in his 70s and a woman in her 70s.

There were four primary close contacts at a small workplace linked to case one and three of them have so far tested negative.

The man in his 70s —case two — visited Highpoint Shopping Centre, triggering a number of exposure sites at the shopping centre which required people who visited the centre on May 20 to get tested and isolate
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lovetravellingoz

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I say this is largely due to the Victorian opening of vaccinations to public transport workers.

Possibly a bit of both. While transport workers increases the pool of those eligible, they were eligible from 24th May, and also as many would be eligible for Pfizer they would need a booking in the main though it was announced on 14th May.

  • Public-facing transport workers, including public transport, taxi and rideshare drivers (from 24 May)

And Vic administered vaccinations which includes walk-ins (and as walk-ins do not pre-book can this more easily be impulse driven) were:
  • 18th May Tuesday 8,363
  • 20th May Thursday 10,683
  • 21st May Friday 8,977
  • 24th May Monday 8,269
  • 25th May Tuesday 14,892
It will be interesting to see what today's totals are. The GP Channel probably would have more lag as you need to book. Vic administered is both bookings and also walk-ins.
 

lovetravellingoz

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Testing wait times in Vic today are not surprisingly on the long side today.

Of the larger sites most are at 120 minutes. Some are shorter with one only being 5 minutes. One is up to 4 hours.


The major sites had 30% capacity increase yesterday, and more capacity was added today including some additional sites according to the Health Minister at today's Vic Press Conference.
 
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nutwood

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I believe that was debunked last year. You only need to look at how cases soared in South America (particularly Brazil) over the last summer to see hot temperatures dont kill the virus.

The reason winter cases rise in some colder climates is because of behaviours like congregating in doors with strangers and failing to keep physical distance.
Is it a question of "debunking"? I seem to recall that cold conditions were considered to be a factor in the spread amongst Victorian meat workers or that been disproved.
The fact that rapid spread has occurred in a hot country doesn't really prove, or disprove anything. There are so many variables. Temperature is but one of them.
 

Lynda2475

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conditions were considered to be a factor in the spread amongst Victorian meat workers

The reports i read said that was due to the moist environment and loud machinery meaning workers shouted more both amplifying droplet spread.
 

Must...Fly!

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While transport workers increases the pool of those eligible, they were eligible from 24th May, and also as many would be eligible for Pfizer they would need a booking in the main though it was announced on 14th May.
So.... Monday. Communications have been a little slow to come out due to no one wanting to make a wrong step with information which you can understand.
 

dajop

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The reports i read said that was due to the moist environment and loud machinery meaning workers shouted more both amplifying droplet spread.

I'd thought I'd read that it was the cold, humidity controlled environment that was aiding the spread.

But who knows, at various times I've read that hot+humid, cold+dry and cold+humid all aid spread. Seems hot+dry seems to be the one missing.
 

lovetravellingoz

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So.... Monday. Communications have been a little slow to come out due to no one wanting to make a wrong step with information which you can understand.


If you mean Transport Workers, it was announced on 14th May that they (under 50's) could get vaccinated from 24th May. So they could have booked in for the 24th,

In addition to the Transport Workers there were many others made eligible from the 17th May see below). There was not real surge in the Vic (State) Gov Channel before or after the 17th though.



14 May 2021
From Monday 17 May, Victorians aged under 50 in a number of priority groups will be able to receive the Pfizer vaccine at more vaccination centres across Victoria, including:

  • Critical and high-risk workers – such as emergency services workers, Australian Defence Force personnel and licenced meat and seafood processing workers
  • Adults with specified underlying health conditions, or severe mental health conditions
  • Disability services workers and carers of people with a disability, both paid and unpaid
  • Paid and unpaid carers of people who are over 70, or who have specified underlying medical conditions
  • Public-facing transport workers, including public transport, taxi and rideshare drivers (from 24 May)
This is in addition to many more healthcare and aged care workers, hotel quarantine and border workers and others who are already eligible to receive the Pfizer vaccine if they are under 50.
 

Silvia

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I called today to try to get an apt for vaccination (as the website advises that you are encouraged to do that particularly under 50 as not all sites have pfizer) and turns out that the booking system was down. I have been on the phone, requested a call back... it's been 2 hours and nothing. I want to get vaccinated but the system is just far from what it should be.
 

Lynda2475

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Lots of reports keep popping up on the ABC Covid blog of venues that have been notified they are Tier 1 and Tier 2 exposure sites not being listed on the official site for hours (and in one case not until the next day).
 
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lovetravellingoz

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I'd thought I'd read that it was the cold, humidity controlled environment that was aiding the spread.

But who knows, at various times I've read that hot+humid, cold+dry and cold+humid all aid spread. Seems hot+dry seems to be the one missing.

Humidity of the air is important, as that means that when the air is too dry that the droplets get smaller and the virus can then "float" and then travel further. Airborne spread rather than droplet spread. Droplets will tend to fall and thus not travel far. Whereas airborne (floating) can travel very long distance due to wind, stray currents etc As they are floating they can stay in the air for long periods thus increasing exposure time as it means that the transmitter and transmittee do not have to be there at the same time, whereas with droplet spread (ignoring fomite transmission which can also be time lagged) they do.



So with HVAC for facilities that have cases, it is important that:
1/ the the humidity is controlled so that droplets are not aerosolised
2/ that airflow is controlled so that air cannot float around, but is instead drawn out of the room. It is also why you do not want to have open windows or fans (or room AC that can act like fans) as these can interfere with the airflow patterns.


In terms of climate winter does not necessarily mean the air is more humid. And summers do not necessarily mean that the air is more humid. It varies by location. Melbourne tends to be more humid in the colder months, drier in summer.


1622000933840.png


Whereas Sydney is the opposite.

1622001058093.png





With abattoir workers it was long exposure times together. plus the close traditional working proximity of such workers. So this has been changed now.

ie See Managing the risk of COVID-19 exposure: abattoirs and meat processing industry | COVID Safe | NSW Government


And proximity and exposure duration is not juts a factor abattoir workers, spread through household contacts is so prevalent, and is one reason why household spread is so common.

Colder times mean that people can be indoors more.

However I think the biggest factor for number of cases is more other issues such as unknown community spread, people not presenting for testing etc.

ie Taiwan now has a surge on, and it is always quite humid there.

The mean minimum and maximum temperatures over the year. Show in Fahrenheit

Average min and max temperatures in Taipei, Taiwan   Copyright © 2021  weather-and-climate.com

1622001671858.png
 
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I was in Melbourne (airport only) on Monday (left Adelaide at 9 and back by 1.30pm) and just received a text from SA Health. More worryingly, the couple behind me did not wear a mask in the Qantas lounge, nor on the flight and I didn't hear anything being said to them onboard. I knew though that SA Police would be questioning them on arrival and as I didn't see them as I walked about 100 metres ahead, sure enough, Police were talking.
We had a text from ACT health last night - were at Melbourne airport for 2 hours on Sunday but transit doesn’t count so we didn’t fill in the online form. People on the plane seemed good about mask wearing, but not in the lounge, but then you don’t have to when eating or drinking, so I had my mask off a fair bit in there as well.
 

Silvia

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Ended up calling again and the system is just not reliable. One person saying Pfizer is available (confirmed by my local network), person over the phone from the hotline saying there’s none so couldnt get booked. I’m now thinking, why don’t we have an online system to do this? (Upload docs to verify your eligibility) and so on. I have family in South America and the process has been impeccable.

I can’t just rock up for hours as I have a little human who depends on me but want to do the right thing... frustrating as!
 

lovetravellingoz

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Ended up calling again and the system is just not reliable. One person saying Pfizer is available (confirmed by my local network), person over the phone from the hotline saying there’s none so couldnt get booked. I’m now thinking, why don’t we have an online system to do this? (Upload docs to verify your eligibility) and so on. I have family in South America and the process has been impeccable.

I can’t just rock up for hours as I have a little human who depends on me but want to do the right thing... frustrating as!

As you mention Pfizer, my understanding (I may be wrong) that in Vic at present you need to have a booking to get the Pfizer Vaccine (either call up, or you may be invited depending on your category). If you are in one of the eligible categories you can book in. ie No walk-ins for Pfizer.

If you are over 50, then you can either book (Hub or GP) or walk in to the Hubs. For minimising wait times the GP Clinics basically have none as you get an exact slot, and GP Practices are probably similar, but perhaps with slight wait times.

AZ is in a lot more supply than Pfizer at present and so much easier to get.

Walk in appointments

Walk ins are allowed at some of the vaccination centres although you are encouraged to book ahead by calling 1800 675 398.
  • If you are eligible and under 50 years you need to book an appointment to get your COVID-19 vaccine. 
  • If you walk in, you should be prepared to wait until an immuniser is free to provide you with a vaccine. For current wait times, see the list at the top of this page.
  • There will be active queue management in place at these centres.
  • Please be patient and understanding while health professionals work as hard as possible to vaccinate you quickly and safely.
If you are uncomfortable with the possibility of waiting outside, then we recommend you book an appointment with your GP to get your COVID-19 vaccine.
 

Silvia

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I understand that. I’m under 50 but healthcare worker and as such tried to book over the phone but got the wrong advice on my closest vaccination centre. One person on the phone said there was but couldn’t get booked as the system went down at the time of my call, second person on the phone said they don’t have Pfizer. People in my local network have confirmed the centre has Pfizer .

My point here is that the CMO and Health minister are asking people to get vaccinated and suggesting that they have the right infrastructure. The fact that I can’t get an appt as they recommend and get contradictory advice doesn’t look like the right infrastructure
 

lovetravellingoz

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This is a graphic of the current spread with Case 5 the current first person in this cluster. He is genomically linked to the Woollert Man , but so far the transmission link is not known. Case 5 could be directly linked to Woollert Man as timing fits, but so far the interviews suggest not.


1622005338935.png
 
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lovetravellingoz

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Melbourne facility was told about an hour ago that a real possibility of 4 day lockdown from tomorrow evening.

Most likely will depend on how many new cases are found today, and especially if any unlinked cases start to emerge.


Authorities are locked in emergency talks as they debate putting Melbourne back into lockdown.

The Herald Sun understands they are considering a five day circuit breaker, which could be extended if significant numbers of cases not directly linked to the existing cluster emerge.
But at this point the decision could go either way, sources say.
Premier Daniel Andrews is monitoring the situation closely.
Authorities are comforted that all 15 current cases are closely linked.
But there is rising concern about the growing list of exposure sites and the type of venues involved, including bars, nightclubs and the MCG.
Most likely will depend on how many positive cases show up today. Especially from those that have been told to get tested.
 

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