Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[HappyFlyerFamily]

To be expected, first cases for NB were 11th Dec, so thats over 4 weeks ago now.

I thought it was:

first 3 (transport worker, 2 Northern Beaches) in 24 hours to 8pm 16/12 (reported at 17/12 press conference), and

the 15 Northern Beaches in 24 hours to 8pm 17/12 (reported on 18/12) were the first cases....

aren’t they still less than 4 weeks?.....

the vagueries of reports?!?!

 

[Lynda2475]

Whilst reported on 18th, the exposure event was 11th Dec. at Avalon RSL and the Bowlo. So defnitely greater than 4 weeks from the time the initial NB cluster were infected, but who knows how they calculate it.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Of course when NSW implemented border permits with Victoria Victoria had rapidly increasing numbers of daily cases getting to hundreds per day.
The situation today in NSW is not remotely like Victoria then.A month on and the Northern beaches cluster has hit just over 150 in a month.most of Regional NSW has not had a case for months.
So sorry but the past instances are nowhere near relevant to the situation now.

The questions I asked were:

So a fine has been introduced in Victoria for if you fail to enter the state without a permit.​

​

However has not such a penalty system been used by multiple states for many months with many already fined ?​

Past instances are relevant to the question I asked. I am interested in what happens if people do not have the appropriate paperwork.


You seem to be wanting to rebut the merits of the use of border permit system and I have no problem with that, but not sure why you are rebutting it to me as I did not advocate its use.

Border Permits, even if the name for them varies, are currently still being used by multiple jurisdictions. So given that they are currently in use I am interested as to what can happen.

ie
At present if I want to say enter SA I have to Complete a Cross Border Registration, which is just another name for a Border Permit, and especially as you are asked to produce the number when crossing the border.

Travel restrictions assuming the website is still current.




So what happens if you arrive in SA and cannot quote that number?

 

[drron]

Your follow up Question when I responded was what would happen when someone arrived at the NSW border without a permit'-post14858.

Now I love the way Victorians are sticking up for their state but in the matter of State borders and permits NSW is now way out in front.

 

[zenyattamondatta]

Unfortunately the sanity of our nation is capped by that of our least-sane state.

 

[Lynda2475]

ACT have revised their NSW Hotspots as at 3pm today.

Restrictions will remain in place for people who have been to 11 local government areas in Sydney. The 11 LGAs still deemed hotspots are:

• Northern Beaches
• Blacktown City
• Burwood
• Canada Bay City
• Canterbury-Bankstown
• coughberland
• Fairfield City
• Inner West
• Liverpool City
• Paramatta City
• Strathfield Municipality

List looks same as NT except for Northern Beaches.

Would love it if NT or ACT could explain why Canada Bay is on the list?

The ACT Government says that the other areas of Greater Sydney, Central Coast and Wollongong are still considered "geographical areas of risk for those visiting or working in high-risk settings (like aged care or healthcare facilities)".

 

[jakeseven7]

Good to see the ACT/NT taking a pragmatic approach to hotspots within the Greater SYD region.

Different hotspot list though so different pragmatic approaches

 

[SydneySwan]

Unfortunately the sanity of our nation is capped by that of our least-sane state.

So which state is your pick? It is a very competitive field.

 

[Lynda2475]

Genomic results for the Mount Druitt cases are expected tonight, hopefully this wil help find a link. More likley to be related to Berala than NB given the area.

Post automatically merged: Jan 12, 2021

I didnt see the Vic presser today - was there no update on the child in Israel?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Your follow up Question when I responded was what would happen when someone arrived at the NSW border without a permit'-post14858.

Perhaps 14859?

Not sure I asked that as a question. So I assume you mean:

Then I could be wildly wrong and everyone appearing at the NSW Border will be fined immediately with no appropriate reminder signs or other communication on the need for a Border Permit.

So yes I believe people when driving up to the border from NSW will be encouraged to obtain the permit before seeking to cross into Vic rather than just trying to fine everyone.

There is a permit system now in multiple states , so what will happen now?

Now I love the way Victorians are sticking up for their state but in the matter of State borders and permits NSW is now way out in front.

Not that I have argued at all that it is isn't and in fact my main posts on border entry of late was critical on the Vic Gov re restrictions of entry from Regional NSW to Victoria. So not sure how that was sticking up for my state when my view was the opposite of the Vic Gov's policy.

I have asked about what happens once you bring in such a permit. Not the merits of such a system.

You seem to be making an argument against a case I have not mounted.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Vic DHHS report now up.

Health.vic

At the Department of Health, we’re focused on supporting Victorians to be as healthy as they can by delivering a world-class health system that focuses on improving patient outcomes and experiences.

www.dhhs.vic.gov.au

Nothing really new.


Also there were no new exposure sites listed today for Vic on the public exposure sites list which is another indicator of no new cases.

Sutton from yesterday morning:
Professor Sutton said despite his suspicions, health authorities were contacting all the child's "several hundred" close contacts."
He said all close contacts tested so far came up negative

So presumably all of the close contacts from the Israeli Traveller will have had their test results back before this morning presser and there has not been any public, or even rumoured, mention of a positive since, either then or later in the day. So, so far, so good. Vic DHHS were advised of the case late on Sunday 10 January. So that is approaching two full days.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I have never found Peter Collignon alarmist. He tends to be very measured and sensible.

He suits the 'open borders now' campaign. Again on ACA last night he said any vaccine won't be 100% effective to stop transmission, therefore we need to open our borders now. (I can't quite work that out).

As for alarmist... as late as August last year he said there would be no vaccine until the end of 2021, and any vaccine before that could lead to paralysis. Australia will not have a coronavirus vaccine for at least a year

 

[Flying mermaid]

He suits the 'open borders now' campaign. Again on ACA last night he said any vaccine won't be 100% effective to stop transmission, therefore we need to open our borders now. (I can't quite work that out).

As for alarmist... as late as August last year he said there would be no vaccine until the end of 2021, and any vaccine before that could lead to paralysis. Australia will not have a coronavirus vaccine for at least a year

I don’t think that was alarmist - just using his in depth medical expertise to say it was unlikely. Given it generally takes 10 years to develop a vaccine it wasn’t an unreasonable opinion even given the money that was being poured in. Anyway you won’t move me from my fan corner . He saved Mr FM’s life with his expertise and he always treated me courteously and was happy to listen to my concerns, unlike many other specialists who can be quite dismissive

 

[Pushka]

I don’t think that was alarmist - just using his in depth medical expertise to say it was unlikely. Given it generally takes 10 years to develop a vaccine it wasn’t an unreasonable opinion even given the money that was being poured in. Anyway you won’t move me from my fan corner . He saved Mr FM’s life with his expertise and he always treated me courteously and was happy to listen to my concerns, unlike many other specialists who can be quite dismissive

Sure, a very informed opinion at the time, but in reality, how helpful are any of these opinions when clearly things change almost daily. Of course I understand that their advice and modelling is essential for Govt planning, usually in order to put into place practices to ensure the modelling doesnt actually eventuate. But they seem then to move into the opinion side without any qualifyers so all the media grabs are about the sensation.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Sure, a very informed opinion at the time, but in reality, how helpful are any of these opinions when clearly things change almost daily. Of course I understand that their advice and modelling is essential for Govt planning, usually in order to put into place practices to ensure the modelling doesnt actually eventuate. But they seem then to move into the opinion side without any qualifyers so all the media grabs are the about the sensation.

Media are constantly asking opinions and then edit it to create as much click bait as they can. I guess they are only human and enjoy giving their opinion as much as all of us do on here....

 

[antycbr]

Sure, a very informed opinion at the time, but in reality, how helpful are any of these opinions when clearly things change almost daily. Of course I understand that their advice and modelling is essential for Govt planning, usually in order to put into place practices to ensure the modelling doesnt actually eventuate. But they seem then to move into the opinion side without any qualifyers so all the media grabs are the about the sensation.

Greg Hunt had a go at our Raina style epidemiology experts for being panic merchants and undermining the health messaging.

Examples cited included the Boxing Day sales which were supposed to lead to 3000 cases by 8 January.

I think the predictions have been wrong so many times that the media will move on.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Greg Hunt had a go at our Raina style epidemiology experts for being panic merchants and undermining the health messaging.

Examples cited included the Boxing Day sales which were supposed to lead to 3000 cases by 8 January.

I think the predictions have been wrong so many times that the media will move on.

I must admit I dislike her - I have definitely found her alarmist

 

[TheRealTMA]

One longs for the good old days...

“Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones.[1]”

 

[Pushka]

Media are constantly asking opinions and then edit it to create as much click bait as they can. I guess they are only human and enjoy giving their opinion as much as all of us do on here....

Honestly, as they are regarded as experts, then perhaps a media role is just not their purpose right now. I do wonder sometimes about their agenda here. They are not required to have media interviews but they do.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Honestly, as they are regarded as experts, then perhaps a media role is just not their purpose right now. I do wonder sometimes about their agenda here. They are not required to have media interviews but they do.

I think in an ideal world the experts would all leave it to the CHO, but it doesn’t happen. I guess I read them all and decide which ones seem alarmist and which ones seem sensible. It also depends on their speciality. The epidemiologists seem a lot more theoretical and the worst case scenarios get presented, in the case of Collignon he is an infectious diseases specialist and I know from personal experience just how good he is, so that colours my viewpoint. I just don’t find him alarmist, which doesn’t mean he is always right. As this virus has progressed and more is learnt, pretty much everyone has been wrong.