Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Must...Fly!]

So the trend of very low, single digit, heavily suppressed case numbers continues.

As do border closures, emotional heartache and economic depression.

From Daniel Andrews today (via the ABC). I just can't believe this is justified.

"I just want to say to every single Victorian who is in NSW and can't come home: The border is closed for the very best of reasons and that's to protect every single Victorian from a third wave. It's based on public health advice and the border will be closed not one moment longer than it needs to be. But the public health advice remains that a permit system and an exemption system should be in place, not just for Greater Sydney, but for NSW.

Meanwhile in WA (though I will qualify below quote being from local AMA president - so take it how you like, only pointing this out in fairness)

Doctors warn WA hospitals 'not coping' as mutant coronavirus strain shows up in hotel quarantine

As a new variant of coronavirus appears in WA's hotel quarantine system, there are fresh questions about the state's ability to respond to a potential outbreak, with hospitals already dealing with record ambulance wait times.

www.abc.net.au

Those at the coalface argued a very different stance on the system's COVID-19 preparedness.

"We can't cope with a COVID outbreak, we have no capacity within our hospital system to do so," Australian Medical Association (AMA) WA president Dr Andrew Miller said.

"We're very much behind the eight ball. We cannot afford to have COVID hitting our community and from there hitting our hospitals, so we have no confidence at all that our system can cope because it's not coping at the moment."

We are over 10 months in to being acutely aware of COVID-19.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Prof Chen just indicated that once the NSW Camper's trip has been cleared of possible infections that Vic is likely to re-open to at least Regional NSW.

Chen also indicated that he and Dr Chant speak daily.

So border re-opening to NSW, or at least regional NSW, is likely to not be far away.

 

[Lynda2475]

Having a permit sysem to enable Victorians to return home is one thing, but not properly resourcing that system is unacceptable. People deservice timely consideration of their cases especially if returning form regional rea unaffected by Covid19 at all. Why a week in, have less than 10% of applications been assessed?

The quote above from WA AMA, conformes what a lot of us have been thinking, WA is using hard borders because they havent invested adequately in contract tracing and testing capablity and havent beefed up procedures at hospitals to be able to treat covid patients. It is a worrying as we are now a year into this thing.

On Tues there was much discussion on here re Prof Chen wanting a risk assessment, but I will point out that it was a blonde female politician (not sure if she was the Vic deputy premiere or Vic deputy health minister) who was the one all over ABC News 24 that evenng calling for restrictions fr UK travellers and accusing all the other states of having inferior systems for handling overseas arrivals.

I liked Dr Chants reponse this morning, which echoed my own sentinments here on Tuesday, which is that you cant single out one origin, but have to assume that variants have spread to multiple places and that any arriving passenger is a potential threat of having the virus (even if tested neative before boarding).

 

[jase05]

Cleaner at a Brisbane quarantine hotel has tested positive

 

[Lynda2475]

Cleaner at a Brisbane quarantine hotel has tested positive

Not terribly surprising, at lest AP and JY cant blame greater Sydney for this one!

 

[Must...Fly!]

Cleaner at a Brisbane quarantine hotel has tested positive

I wonder how long until borders snap shut.

 

[Lynda2475]

I wonder how long until borders snap shut.

Cant see NSW doing this, but WA probably will!

 

[jakeseven7]

So the trend of very low, single digit, heavily suppressed case numbers continues.

As do border closures, emotional heartache and economic depression.

From Daniel Andrews today (via the ABC). I just can't believe this is justified.




Meanwhile in WA (though I will qualify below quote being from local AMA president - so take it how you like, only pointing this out in fairness)

Doctors warn WA hospitals 'not coping' as mutant coronavirus strain shows up in hotel quarantine

As a new variant of coronavirus appears in WA's hotel quarantine system, there are fresh questions about the state's ability to respond to a potential outbreak, with hospitals already dealing with record ambulance wait times.

www.abc.net.au

We are over 10 months in to being acutely aware of COVID-19.

The AMA in WA (or perhaps just their talking head Andrew Miller) have simply lost the plot.

One second they are screaming for the borders to come down (yes even when there were are couple of cases in Sydney still) because the risk is tolerable and then the next second they are ripping into the WA government for being utterly and completely unprepared and it is no longer possible to open even with a couple of cases a week. Which one is it?

Seriously, the AMA have really lost a lot of credibility during this whole crisis.

My view is that NSW still has a high number of mystery cases, they had four outbreaks in Dec, source of one is still completely unknown so they might be on a very watchful alert for a few more weeks at least.... perhaps that could be justified.....

But WA with its border shut to VIC is ridiculous.

 

[jakeseven7]

Queensland records a local case ending a 100 day community transmission free run as quarantine hotel worker tests positive​

A worker at a quarantine hotel in Brisbane has tested positive for coronavirus.

The worker tested positive overnight and contact tracing is underway.

It is more than 100 days since the last case of community transmission in Queensland.

Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk is due to speak shortly.

Quarantine hotel worker tests positive for coronavirus in Brisbane

A cleaner at a quarantine hotel in Brisbane tests positive for coronavirus, sparking a health alert for three of the capital's southern suburbs, with the highly-infectious United Kingdom strain previously reported at the hotel.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Lynda2475]

they had four outbreaks in Dec

There are only two active clusters - Northern Beaches (includes Croydon and Wollongong) and Transport Worker (includes BWS/Berala). The strain in both is USA in origin, which means that there has not been any lingering untracked community transmission from the Victorian seeding Events in July/August at Crossroads, Thai Rock, Batemans Bay or funeral clusters.

I know you have no confidence in NSW, but sustained low numbers doesnt have me worried. Trend is less than Crossroads outbreak and nothing remotely approaching the Melbourne Second wave trajectory.

Chill.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Having had now 5 cases of the more highly transmissible virus arrive in Melbourne, Vic's current approach is to assume that every person arriving in Oz whether they be flightcrew or passenger may have the the most infectious strain.

This is one reason every HQ worker is tested daily, and why all flightcrew as well as pax are tested. As a % flightcrew recently have been shown to have a highly level of positivity than arriving passengers.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Having had now 5 cases of the more highly transmissible virus arrive in Melbourne, Vic's current approach is to assume that every person arriving in Oz whether they be flightcrew or passenger may have the the most infectious strain.

This is one reason every HQ worker is tested daily, and why all flightcrew as well as pax are tested. As a % flightcrew recently have been shown to have a highly level of positivity than arriving passengers.

Out of curiousity I wonder what difference a more infectious strain makes. Given Premier Andrews characterised the virus as, I believe the words he used were "highly contagious, evil virus", surely the prudent thing for authorities to do when welcoming international arrivals (where this is an actual threat) is to assume everyone is positive and contagious.

Isn't that why we have hotel quarantine? If it wasn't secure before now, why not? If it wasn't totally secure prior to this, why not? If it wasn't, this new strain didn't pop up overnight - it's had at least 3 months to come in?

Our governments have asked and are asking us as citizens to take extraordinary steps in forgoing many civil liberties, but don't seem to be offering us the courtesy of doing the job properly in return.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

There are only two active clusters - Northern Beaches (includes Croydon and Wollongong) and Transport Worker (includes BWS/Berala).

I must have missed the reports with the transmission links the clusters to be one outbreak with the one index case. Who was this? Were they aircrew?


Last I saw why there is a genomic link, I was not aware that the transmission links had been established between the separate outbreaks to make then them the one outbreak.


Vic currently now has two outbreaks. Black Rock and Vermont South. Both have been genomically linked to Avalon, but the transmission links are yet to be found for both. Early days though with the Vermont South Outbreak.

 

[jakeseven7]

There are only two active clusters - Northern Beaches (includes Croydon and Wollongong) and Transport Worker (includes BWS/Berala). The strain in both is USA in origin, which means that there has not been any lingering untracked community transmission from the Victorian seeding Events in July/August at Crossroads, Thai Rock, Batemans Bay or funeral clusters.

I know you have no confidence in NSW, but sutained low numbers doesnt have me worried. Trend is less than Crossroads outbreak and nothing remotely approaching the Melbourne Second wave trajectory.

Chill.

I'm not sure how you 'know I have no confidence', you must be confused because I do have confidence in NSW managing it in their own way, as I've said many times before, I just think it is really unfortunate all the other states don't like / agree with the way NSW approaches the management of it because it results in border closures which are incredibly disruptive on many levels to literally millions of people. I just wish everyone could get on the same page.

I wasn't talking about clusters and didn't mention them.... I was talking the 4 virus escapees in December. Google is your friend if you need to check that. Cleaner, Two drivers and the mystery cluster starter not tracked down yet and unlikely to be now.

Chill

 

[drron]

The AMA in WA (or perhaps just their talking head Andrew Miller) have simply lost the plot.

One second they are screaming for the borders to come down (yes even when there were are couple of cases in Sydney still) because the risk is tolerable and then the next second they are ripping into the WA government for being utterly and completely unprepared and it is no longer possible to open even with a couple of cases a week. Which one is it?

Seriously, the AMA have really lost a lot of credibility during this whole crisis.

My view is that NSW still has a high number of mystery cases, they had four outbreaks in Dec, source of one is still completely unknown so they might be on a very watchful alert for a few more weeks at least.... perhaps that could be justified.....

But WA with its border shut to VIC is ridiculous.

However those 2 views are compatible.If the WA Hospital system is at breaking point obviously there will be health professionals who want the borders closed even with minimal risk.

What concerns me seems to imply WA doesn't have an Emergency Plan if an outbreak does occur.
Now Tasmania has a chronically stretched hospital system especially in the north of the State.However they do have an Emergency plan which unfortunately would put me at greater risk.
Half of our Medical ward can be completely isolated from the rest of the hospital.It has a separate entrance even to one lift well being able to be used only for that ward.It has an airlock at one end with 2 separate rooms that can and were used for donning and doffing PPE.There is also an emergency supply of PPE in the North West.
Only severely ill patients couldn't be treated here but the LGH ICU was refurbed in February,March with a section that can be completely isolated.
This probably is why Tasmania has been quite reasonable with the border this time.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Out of curiousity I wonder what difference a more infectious strain makes.

Well presumably if the virus is more transmible you will have a higher Ro and any leakage could cause much more rapid spread. So the need to prevent, and to also act quicker on any outbreak, is more.

Note that in Vic's second wave that at the start the Ro was high as it had been entering households of with very large size, and who mixed with similar larger households. So transmission was very rapid.

 

[Lynda2475]

I never claimed that patient zero for Northern Beaches has been found - that is the mystery case. But also irrelevant now, as exposure date for first case was 11th Dec - which was over 3 weeks ago - all NB cluster cases since have been linked. Best theory remains air crew. The link between Wollongong and Croydon was a south coast resturant, and both attendees had also been in CBD area where NB cases had visited.

The hotel cleaner case resulted in no further infections and is also no longer active.

Transport Worker and Berala cluster these have been directly linked and reported repeatedy. Transport worker # 1 got it from transporting overseas arrival, passed it onto their colleague transport worker #2 who visisted BWS Berala before he knew he had been infected.

 

[Lynda2475]

But WA with its border shut to VIC is ridiculous.

WA is ridiculous on that we can agree.

But Vic is no less risky than NSW, the virus was brought back into Vic by Victorians returning from NSW, and some of those exposed have visited many crowded sites in Vic. Vic are no better informed as to where their latest cases (the MCG/Chadstone guy) was exposed than NSW are re how latest NB case is positive, given had already done 14 days isolation and tested negative when released from quarantine.

If each state and territory has proper track and trace and hopistal procedures in place, our doemstic borders should be open. Enforce self iso for those identified as close contacts, dont lock out a whole state because of a a handful of cases. When I talk to friends working on the front lines in US they are floored we have lock-outs for less than 10 cases a day.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Well presumably if the virus is more transmible you will have a higher Ro and any leakage could cause much more rapid spread. So the need to prevent, and to also act quicker on any outbreak, is more.

Note that in Vic's second wave that at the start the Ro was high as it had been entering households of with very large size, and who mixed with similar larger households. So transmission was very rapid.

I would contest that the need to act quicker to prevent outbreaks is any different. This virus is seen by state governments here as the biggest threat to our community.

So why are measures being stepped up in response to a more infectious strain? The risk management shouldn't really change with the infectivity in a quarantine system, especially when the consequence is so severe (immediate and far reaching lockdowns, closing of borders, economic destruction, etc).

It is more proof that even after 10 months of this our governments are still playing catch up while we suffer the consequences.

 

[Lynda2475]

The risk management shouldn't really change with the infectivity in a quarantine system, especially when the consequence is so severe (immediate and far reaching lockdowns, closing of borders, economic destruction, etc).

Exactly, assume all arrivals pose the same risk, have the best procedures in place irresepctive of the likely strain. We dont want any strains escaping into the community.