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Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

SydneySwan

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For those interested a relevant opinion piece by joe hildebrand

I agree with his comments about Jenny Mikakos - I was very surprised that she survived her criticism of Dr Chris Higgins back in March. I was telling my friends in DPRV that she wouldn't last the weekend at the time but 5 months on she is still there. Shows how much I know!
 

Gremlin

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What could go wrong?

——

Quarantined travellers to be let out of Queensland hotel rooms

Pandemic travellers locked in Queensland hotels have won the right to leave their rooms and step out into the open air despite concerns that hotel quarantine breaches that have caused COVID-19 problems in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth.

Each state has a number of things that they have done well and a number of things that they haven't. Qld has spent quite a bit of effort thinking about the mental health impacts for quarantined travellers and, where possible to do so safely, have implemented the ability for quarantined travellers to do just that.

For example, one such hotel has an open air but completely enclosed courtyard. Quarantined guests wearing PPE are escorted by PPE wearing police to the courtyard for an allotted period of time. Timeslots are booked in advance to ensure that sufficient social distancing is maintained. PPE must be worn from before they step out of the room to after they return and at no point does the guest ever leave the hotel property. Unfortunately, this isn't possible to do safely with all quarantine hotels. To date, where it can't be done safely, it hasn't been.

My guess is that the impact of this ruling won't be that it'll now be allowed in places where it can't be done safely. Instead, it will be to further reduce the capacity of quarantined pax to fit only the venues where it can be implemented appropriately. An educated guess would be that it might halve the capacity from where it is now?
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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12 Vic deaths in today’s report as young as 30s, half in aged care

Edit person in 30s is not a healthcare worker
 
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HappyFlyerFamily

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Another ‘about 3%‘ positivity rate today - 466 new Vic cases reported.

PS the positivity rate spikes have previously been attributed to processing batches.

Edit: I heard 12 thousand something test - clearly based on others hearing below I wasn’t paying enough attention
 
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SydneySwan

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Instead, it will be to further reduce the capacity of quarantined pax to fit only the venues where it can be implemented appropriately. An educated guess would be that it might halve the capacity from where it is now?
I understand QLD currently has a cap on international arrivals although I can't remember what it is. I wonder if they will now cap domestic arrivals as well?
 

SydneySwan

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NSW 9 new cases of which 2 are in hotel quarantine. I keep fearing a breakout spike but the NSW numbers have been amazingly consistent these past few weeks.
 

jakeseven7

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NSW 9 new cases of which 2 are in hotel quarantine. I keep fearing a breakout spike but the NSW numbers have been amazingly consistent these past few weeks
Its only a matter of time until it hits a dense population opportunity (not just a few randoms in shops, restaurants, bars). Everyone is waiting for it. NSW CHO clearly terrified playing the waiting game, especially with so many cases with unknown sources still walking around Sydney.

Could be tomorrow, could be in two weeks... it’s like an awful game of Russian Roulette.

But NSW Gov seems content to allow some community transmission although that is at odds with what our apparent national goal is of zero community transmission.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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NSW 9 new cases of which 2 are in hotel quarantine. I keep fearing a breakout spike but the NSW numbers have been amazingly consistent these past few weeks.
Of the 9:

3 are under investigation (including 2 that are close contacts of each other)
4 are from known cases
Plus the 2 in quarantine

Still waiting for fallout from religious gathering exemption implemented just over a week ago. I’m getting to a point where I'm almost happy to concede I might be wrong on.
 
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lovetravellingoz

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I am just looking at today's Vic figures.

Originally I had a quick look on my phone as seeing they were in the 400s though ah that the postivity rate of being very high every third day had stopped. had halved though to

But no today, the third day it is back up again (doubling) at 3.47 % . The number of tests had about halved to 11, 984. Again I have no idea why this is so.


The good news is thought it is now three days in a row in the mid 400's and so hopefully new cases have now plateaued, and the hopefully mid next week the new restrictions (some of which will not actually commence till Sunday) will start to impact and drive down numbers.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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NSW community transmission total status update ...net increase to up to 18 cases today

Confirmed cases to date
By likely source of infectionCount
Overseas
2,038​
Interstate acquired
84​
Locally acquired – contact of a confirmed case and/or in a known cluster
1,161​
Locally acquired – contact not identified
378​
Under investigation
1​
Total
3,662​
Counts reported for a particular day may vary over time with ongoing enhanced surveillance activities.
 

dajop

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The number of tests had about halved to 11, 984. Again I have no idea why this so.
In his daily presser this morning Dan mentioned 29,000 tests being reported on yesterday. If you look at the number on Covidlive it is not 11,984, but -11,984, which would suggest an overreporting of the number of tests previously. The premier alluded to that is they are focussing on counting the number of positives and playing catch up with the number of negatives.
 
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lovetravellingoz

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In his daily presser this morning Dan mentioned 29,000 tests being reported on yesterday. If you look at the number on Covidlive it is not 11,984, but -11,984, which would suggest an overreporting of the number of tests previously. The premier alluded to that is they are focussing on counting the number of positives and playing catch up with the number of negatives.
Thank you.

Yes Dan also said that on previous days when you started seeing the numbers rounded to 000 each day. One of these past day numbers of covidlive has now (well actually yesterday) been adjusted to 24,947 rather than 25,000.

However my remark as to no idea why was on the 3 day positivity rate again being high. With such a regular pattern I very much doubt that it is just a statistical aberation and if it is catch up, why does this get such a positive spike every third day? If just catch up then that would possibly mean say that every third day that they release less of the negative results. This could be so but seems very odd.

Anyway at least at present the postivity rate seems to have no meaning as something is occurring that means that on a daily basis it is not at all accurate.

The 7 day new case rate now seems to be trending in a good direction and the flattish 3 day number released today should continue this.

Sutton also announced to today that % of unknown local transmission cases was trending down.

1596854828012.png
 
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dajop

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However my remark as to no idea why was on the 3 day positivity rate again being high.
But is it? You can’t simply divide the number of positives reported by the number of the tests reported as the second number is negative, therefore meaningless as to a positivity rate. I guess to make sense of the figures we would have to look at rolling averages.

if the 29000 figure (#tests) Dan suggested is correct that gives a positivity rate of 1.4%, but the number deducted means that much higher positivity rates over previous days.

All very odd.
 

RAM

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I am just looking at today's Vic figures.

Originally I had a quick look on my phone as seeing they were in the 400s though ah that the postivity rate of being very high every third day had stopped. had halved though to

But no today, the third day it is back up again (doubling) at 3.47 % . The number of tests had about halved to 11, 984. Again I have no idea why this is so.


The good news is thought it is now three days in a row in the mid 400's and so hopefully new cases have now plateaued, and the hopefully mid next week the new restrictions (some of which will not actually commence till Sunday) will start to impact and drive down numbers.
I really hope the 'three day effect' has not become say the '4 day' effect due to the curfew stopping the batch being checked...

I saw somewhere that the results reporting for a number of 'private' labs are being run in batches across several days not every day.
 

lovetravellingoz

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Today's Vic DHHS Report:
My bolding

Media release
08 August 2020

Victoria has recorded 466 new cases of coronavirus since yesterday, with the total number of cases now at 14,283.
The overall total has increased by 416 due to 50 cases being reclassified – largely due to duplication.

Within Victoria, 24 of the new cases are linked to outbreaks or complex cases and 442 are under investigation.
There have been 12 new deaths from COVID-19 reported since yesterday. They include a man in his 30s, two men in their 70s, two men and three women in their 80s and four women in their 90s.

Six of the 12 new deaths are linked to known outbreaks in aged care facilities. To date, 193 people have died from coronavirus in Victoria.
In Victoria at the current time:

  • 2584 cases may indicate community transmission
  • 7808 cases are currently active in Victoria
  • 636 cases of coronavirus are in hospital, including 44 in intensive care
  • 6066 people have recovered from the virus
  • More than 1,759,900 tests have been processed – an increase of 29,783 since yesterday
Of the total cases:
  • 13,095 cases are from metropolitan Melbourne, while 862 are from regional Victoria
  • Total cases include 6943 men and 7255 women
  • Total number of healthcare workers: 1667, active cases: 998
  • There are 1688 active cases relating to aged care facilities
Active aged care outbreaks with the highest cumulative case numbers are as follows:
  • 184 cases have been linked to Epping Gardens Aged Care in Epping
  • 163 cases have been linked to St Basil’s Homes for the Aged in Fawkner
  • 145 cases have been linked to Estia Aged Care Facility in Ardeer
  • 122 cases have been linked to Kirkbrae Presbyterian Homes in Kilsyth
  • 95 cases have been linked to Estia Aged Care Facility in Heidelberg
  • 92 cases have been linked to Outlook Gardens Aged Care Facility in Dandenong North
  • 87 cases have been linked to Arcare Aged Care Facility in Craigieburn
  • 83 cases have been linked to BaptCare Wyndham Lodge Community in Werribee
  • 74 cases have been linked to Aurrum Aged Care in Plenty
  • 74 cases have been linked to Glendale Aged Care Facility in Werribee
Cases currently linked to key outbreaks are as follows:
  • 198 cases have been linked to Bertocchi Smallgoods in Thomastown
  • 165 cases have been linked to Somerville Retail Services in Tottenham
  • 121 cases have been linked to JBS Brooklyn
  • 92 cases have been linked to Melbourne Health Royal Park Campus
  • 83 cases have been linked to Australian Lamb Company in Colac
  • 60 cases have been linked to Woolworths Distribution Centre Mulgrave
  • 45 cases have been linked to the Linfox warehouse in Truganina
  • 45 cases have been linked to Nino Early Learning Centre in Bundoora
  • 38 cases have been linked to Golden Farms Poultry in Breakwater
  • 33 cases have been linked to Respite Services Australia in Moonee Ponds
  • 30 cases have been linked to Ingham’s in Thomastown
  • 20 cases have been linked to Jayco in Dandenong
The department is also looking into nine cases linked to Allied Pinnacle bakery in Altona; four cases linked to Werribee Mercy Hospital; two cases linked to Ballarat Health Service; two cases linked to the Ambassador Hotel in Frankston; and one case linked to Sinclair Meats in Ballarat.
 
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Is it reasonable to take some comfort the numbers arent skyrocketing yet? Although two weeks ago, who would have said that 466 isnt a skyrocket. No update from SA yet.
Covid live has zero for South Australia.

I am trying not to be too hopeful, as everytime I have the next day it has been 600 to 700. It does seem to have plateaued though. Hopefully level 4 will start driving the numbers down in the next week.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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NSW Health alert - Bunning Campbelltown

NSW Health is advising customers who attended Bunnings, Campbelltown, on Tuesday 4 August, Wednesday 5 August and Thursday 6 August to be alert for symptoms of COVID-19 and if even mild symptoms occur, to get tested and isolate themselves.

The advice is due to the identification of a positive case in an employee at the store located at the Corner Kellicar Road and Bugden Place, Campbelltown.

The employee, who wore a mask during their shifts and practiced social distancing, worked in the store on:

  • Tuesday 4 August from 11am to 7pm
  • Wednesday 5 August from 8am to 4pm
  • Thursday 6 August from 1pm to 3pm
Customers who attended the store during this time are advised to be alert for symptoms of COVID-19 and if even mild symptoms occur, to get tested and isolate themselves.

Close contacts among staff members have been identified and are self-isolating.
 

jakeseven7

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Breaking: Healthcare worker at Sydney hospital tests positive

A healthcare worker in the emergency department at Sydney’s Hornsby Hospital has tested positive for COVID-19 and NSW Health is desperately identifying members of the public and staff who may need to self-isolate.

The staff member worked one shift while infectious several days ago on August 6, a spokeswoman for the health department said.

 

jakeseven7

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Sydney school closes after student tests positive

A school in Sydney’s west – Our Lady of Mercy College in Parramatta – will close for deep cleaning after a student tested positive for COVID-19 on Saturday.

NSW Health authorities are attempting to trace the student’s movements and contacts.

Students will learn remotely on Monday as the school undergoes a deep clean.

 

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