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Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

lovetravellingoz

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What spread the virus this time might not be what spreads it next time.
What spread the virus this time might not be what spreads it next time = exactly.

But it is head in the sand stuff to ignore demographics, and the demographics of what has driven so far this second spike in Victoria. Indeed our health authorities probably did not early have a good grasp of the demographic and cultural differences of the the second spike, compared to the first spike, and this probably led to the response not being as adequate as it needed to be.

First spike in Australia was mainly spread amongst the more affluent.

Second spike has been more spread by people in lower socioeconomic groups, families and of faith (Catholic and Islamic Schools have been prominent).

"What happened in Melbourne was incredibly unique," she (Professor McLaws ) said.

"We had highly interconnected family clustering. And that clustering was very big, with many people living in high density with close social and family connections
.



Any human can catch at spread Covid 19, but for many different reasons different groups can be more prone at times.

Second spike in South Korea was mainly via the youngish in their night club districts.

Second spike in NSW seems to have gained traction via pubs.

In Victoria, Sutton stated yesterday that all, or at least most of the second spike was sourced from the private security guards. These workers then infected their friends and families. This then went through their other contacts including school and religious contacts before then spreading further afield. Initially in the suburbs they lived in, but then rippling out.

The response to any spike or cluster needs to be tailored to the demographics of those in that cluster or spike.
 

OZDUCK

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All arrivals from Victoria into W.A. will now be, compulsorily, swabbed at the border and again 11 days later while still in quarantine. NSW residents may also be subject to tighter restrictions. There have also been a large number of exemptions to the border closure cancelled.

It is also interesting that the article mentioned a 10 year old boy in Hotel quarantine who has become the 11th person to test 'positive' off one particular flight from the U.K.

 

Pushka

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I note from your pic the Premier and his media pack don't seem to think social distancing or masks are required any more. With that attitude it only needs one or two asymptomatics to enter SA and SA will be in the same position within a couple of weeks as Melbourne.
I'm quite alert to such things nowadays but I think it is a case of the angle of the photo. The Premier was ceertainly separated by the required distance. Only arrivals from NT, QLD and WA dont have to self quarantine and Vics not at all so asymptomatics shouldnt be mixing. Except for those Vics who escaped prior to midnight last week. There are still a few days for that to play out.
 

jakeseven7

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Really interesting piece.

I think this guy is asking the question we all want answered..... because it is highly obvious no one knows.... and in the meantime we run around like headless chickens with no aligned strategy...

----

If we are to live with COVID-19 then Australia’s leaders need to tell us what that means

The longer the battle with this virus goes the more obvious it is that Australia’s governments do not agree on what “living with COVID 19” looks like. Failing to settle on a definition risks levelling the economy as we shunt in and out of lockdowns in the hunt for a diabolically elusive disease.

Eight billion dollars has been committed by the Commonwealth alone to fortifying the health system. At the beginning of the crisis there were 2200 ventilators in Australia, there are now 7500. States and territories have vastly increased their capacity to surge intensive care beds. Hundreds of millions of masks have been secured and 50 million dispensed from the national stockpile. At the same time a deliberate act of economic self-harm slowed the progress of the disease.

We were told to expect outbreaks as the economy gradually reopened. Setbacks were not supposed to derail the unwinding of restrictions but would be cauterised as they arose. The unspoken core of this approach must be that some disease and some deaths was deemed acceptable by our governments, if it was manageable. If this strikes you as diabolical then don’t drive because the same trade-off is in play every time you get behind the wheel: most of us clearly agree that the benefit is worth the real risk of being maimed or dying.

But the outbreak in Victoria arose with such ferocity that it rattled every government and exposed the fatal flaw in that plan; there is no agreed roadmap out of the shutdown

Full article:
 
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drron

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Of course if you are a Queenslander coming back into the State we now know that you can avoid the State hotels by having an agent and a Covid management plan just like Dannii Minoque.
So when we drive to NSW I will get some good friends to be our agent and supply them with our Covid plan.I am sure they will deliver things we want as long as we promise a nice restaurant meal after our 14 days are up.
 

moa999

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And this is why NSW has acted on hotels.
View attachment 222422 .

The Golden Sheaf,Double Pay.Used to be a regular there in Uni days.
They were fined for this.
$5500 fine.

Note that inside they were obeying the capacity requirements and distancing.
Lower capacity inside - and queues form.

But yes security should have done a better job, as should of those standing in the queue
 

moa999

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And this is why NSW has acted on hotels.
View attachment 222422 .

The Golden Sheaf,Double Pay.Used to be a regular there in Uni days.
They were fined for this.
$5500 fine.

Note that inside they were obeying the capacity requirements and distancing.
Lower capacity inside - and queues form.

But yes security should have done a better job, as should of those standing in the queue

But the outbreak in Victoria arose with such ferocity that it rattled every government and exposed the fatal flaw in that plan; there is no agreed roadmap out of the shutdow
I think the map has always been to minimise until you get a vaccine.
Just that we ended up getting pretty close to elimination, and some states now at least seem to be trying to achieve that.

But as Victoria has shown this virus is sneaky and can be highly virulent in some circumstances
 

lovetravellingoz

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Sadly...

#BREAKING: A man in his 80s has died in a Victorian hospital from COVID-19. He is the 25th death from the coronavirus recorded in the state.


Even more sad is that the growing number of elderly now being infected, plus the growing number of people on ventilators mean that there most likely will be quite a number more over the next few weeks.


EDIT,

A second death was announced not long after the one above. So I have just added it here now.

Woman in her 80s dies in Victoria
A moment ago I told you a man in his 80s had died in Victoria. Now we hear another person, a woman in her 80s, has died in hospital. That brings Victoria’s death toll from the virus to 26 and Australia’s national toll to 110.
 
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Himeno

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Mrs SS and I are driving up to northern NSW starting in 7 days. Mrs SS has indicated she would like to spend one day in Queensland on the Gold Coast. We live in Sydney north shore about 40kms from the Crossroads Hotel which neither of us have ever visited. I am idly wondering if the Queensland border will be closed;

1). Before we head north on July 21.
2). The say before we intend to cross the border.
3). 5 minutes before we try to cross the border.
4). Remains open.

For the long stretch of time when NSW had almost no cases except for overseas visitors in hotel quarantine I was very critical of AP's closed border policy. However in the current situation with NSW struggling with the Crossroads outbreak I will concede she would have good reason to act.
Queensland has declared the City of Campbelltown and Liverpool City Council areas to be covid hotspots and have made anyone who have been to those LGAs within the prior 14 days subject to quarantine requirements when attempting to enter the state.
 

lovetravellingoz

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Cases by LGA now up for Vic.

Covidlive now clearly show the LGA's that are subject to Stay at Home Restrictions.

There are not many new cases outside of the lockdowned suburbs. So that is good news on lack of spread outside of the GMMA.

3 Golden Plains
1 Greater Geelong
1 Latrobe
1 South Gippsland.

VIC CASES LGA
Tue 14 Jul



VIC ACTIVE LGA
Tue 14 Jul
 
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lovetravellingoz

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Vic DHHS Daily update:
(My bolding below)

Media release
14 July 2020

Victoria has recorded 270 new cases of coronavirus since yesterday, with the total number of cases now at 4224.
The overall total has increased by 257, after 13 cases were reclassified – largely due to duplication.

Within Victoria, 28 of the new cases are linked to outbreaks and 242 are under investigation. No new cases have been detected in a returned traveller in hotel quarantine.

Two new deaths have been reported since yesterday. A woman in her 80’s and a man in his 80’s, both died in hospital. To date, 26 people have died from coronavirus in Victoria.

In Victoria at the current time:

  • 752 cases may indicate community transmission
  • 1803 cases are currently active in Victoria
  • 85 cases of coronavirus are in hospital, including 26 in intensive care
  • 2395 people have recovered from the virus
  • Of the total cases, 3799 cases are from metropolitan Melbourne, while 298 are from regional Victoria
  • Total cases include 2213 men and 2001 women
  • More than 1,170,300 tests have been processed
Cases currently linked to public housing in North Melbourne, Flemington and Carlton are as follows:
  • 242 cases are residents of various public housing towers in North Melbourne and Flemington. Investigations are continuing into how these cases are linked.
  • 32 cases are residents of various public housing towers in Carlton.
Investigations are continuing into if and/or how these cases are linked.
Cases currently linked to key outbreaks are as follows:

  • 147 cases have been linked to Al-Taqwa College
  • 28 cases have been linked to Menarock Life Aged Care Facility in Essendon
  • 14 cases have been linked to Somerville Retail Services in Tottenham
  • 14 cases have been linked to Brunswick Private Hospital
  • 13 cases linked to Estia Health aged care facility in Ardeer
  • 12 cases linked to Goodman Fielder site in West Footscray
  • 11 cases have been linked to LaManna Supermarket Essendon
  • 9 cases have been linked to Cenvic Construction Riverina Apartments in Footscray
 

dajop

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Headline (tabloid) news tonight “Coronavirus out of control in Melbourne”. “Andrews government fails to deliver on promise to have 4000 ICU beds ready by July”. (Only 700 ready). Sheesh, I don’t know much about medical care but would have thought you wouldn’t bring ICU online unless you needed it.

Aaah tabloid news.
 

jakeseven7

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Just that we ended up getting pretty close to elimination, and some states now at least seem to be trying to achieve that.
Why not have a transparent, honest conversation about it then instead of hiding behind BS press conference talk...God just look at WA and QLD dodging around it every single day its embarrassing.... I mean clearly that is the case but then let's recognise it and plan around that instead of playing pretend.

It's clearly too hard a conversation to have (yet), anywhere!
 
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lovetravellingoz

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Headline (tabloid) news tonight “Coronavirus out of control in Melbourne”. “Andrews government fails to deliver on promise to have 4000 ICU beds ready by July”. (Only 700 ready). Sheesh, I don’t know much about medical care but would have thought you wouldn’t bring ICU online unless you needed it.

Aaah tabloid news.
More capacity was added and is still being added.

Surge capacity such as the Peter MacCallum was built and remains unused, but is there if required. There was also a similar hospital refurbished in Geelong which is also empty and waiting if required. At present it makes more sense to use the ICU in the main hospitals. But there is extra unused capacity if needed..

A makeshift intensive care unit built at the former Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre in East Melbourne remains empty despite a huge surge in coronavirus infections across Melbourne.

The $30 million refurbishment, which includes 84 beds over eight floors, was completed on May 20 after builders worked around the clock as part of the Andrews government's "accelerated program" to combat COVID-19.




Part of the original expansion planned back when internationally Covid 19 was predicted to require vast numbers of ICU beds was a 750 bed facility at Jeff's Shed. Such facilities built in the UK (Nightingale Hospitals) and USA (built by US Cops of Engineers) were in the main largely unused and have mainly been removed.
A proposal for a 750-bed intensive care unit at Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre was shelved in May, after construction group Lendlease was engaged to build the makeshift facility

If required that contact could be re-activated. But capacity on that scale seems unlikely even with the current spike.

 

HappyFlyerFamily

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I'm quite alert to such things nowadays but I think it is a case of the angle of the photo. The Premier was ceertainly separated by the required distance. Only arrivals from NT, QLD and WA dont have to self quarantine and Vics not at all so asymptomatics shouldnt be mixing. Except for those Vics who escaped prior to midnight last week. There are still a few days for that to play out.
Just been busy today.....did you find the COVID number plate car?
 

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