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Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

lovetravellingoz

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Can I have a layman's interpretation of today's results in Vic please?
Well the DHHS released this at 1.41Pm today:

Victoria has recorded 216 new cases of coronavirus since yesterday, with the total number of cases now at 3560.

The overall total has increased by 181, after 35 cases were reclassified – largely due to duplication.

Within Victoria, 30 of the new cases are linked to outbreaks and 186 are under investigation. No cases have been detected in returned travellers in hotel quarantine.

There has been one death reported since yesterday, with a man in his 90s passing away in hospital overnight. To date, 23 people have died from coronavirus in Victoria.


  • 535 cases may indicate community transmission
  • 1249 cases are currently active in Victoria
  • 49 cases of coronavirus are in hospital, including 15 in intensive care
  • 2286 people have recovered from the virus
  • Of the total cases, 3176 cases are from metropolitan Melbourne, while 279 are from regional Victoria
  • Total cases include 1876 men and 1659 women
  • More than 1,095,000 tests have been processed to date
Cases linked to outbreaks include:

  • 138 cases are linked to the North Melbourne and Flemington public housing towers
  • 134 cases are linked to Al-Taqwa College
  • Three cases are linked to the Somerville Meats Retail Services in Tottenham
  • Four cases are linked to Cenvic Construction Riverina Apartments in Footscray
  • Two cases are linked to the JBS Australia Brooklyn Plant abattoir
  • Seven cases are linked to the Catch.com Distribution Centre in Truganina
  • Three cases are linked to the PM Fresh facility in Broadmeadows
  • 10 cases are linked to Menarock Aged Care in Essendon
  • Seven cases are linked to the Glendale Aged Care Facility in Werribee
  • Five cases are linked to Debney Meadows Primary School
  • Three cases are linked to Ilim College

One hopes that the below are more close contacts of the workers rather than elderly residents.
  • 10 cases are linked to Menarock Aged Care in Essendon
  • Seven cases are linked to the Glendale Aged Care Facility in Werribee
 
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HappyFlyerFamily

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Can I have a layman's interpretation of today's results in Vic please?
From my perspective, lots of cases too many to link yet (hence over 150 under investigation) and the 30-odd links to exisiting outbreaks (but It’s complex to tell you which ones because there are over 100 outbreaks at present in Melbourne/Mitchell).

I hope I qualify as layman And that my explanation is clear enough.
 

lovetravellingoz

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PS. Most cases are still in Melbourne and Mitchell. Most in the hotpots.

The construction site is notable as construction workers have rarely been infected in the workplace. Off the top of my head I only recall two others such worksites since the pandemic began.


And not that I have been out, but reports are that facemask wearing is up, and shopping centres etc not as busy.
 
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Indeed, and even without travellers, or even essential workers, as freight airliner, merchant ship, iron-ore ships, container ships etc are arriving and departing from Australia every day and this must be so for Australia to operate, and so the risk of re-infection will remain and so suitable control measures will need to be in place for a long, long time yet.
This is pretty much what Coatsworth said in his presentation today. That suppression to the point of elimination is something to pursue, but elimation itself, without a vaccine is impossible, as there will always be the potential of importation. He also felt it then caused too much consternation for the community when the inevitable cases happened.
 

Bundy Bear

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I’m surprised that the 216 is used and not 181 I guess it sounds worse.
Also biggest number of new infections 236,918 I thought would have got a bigger mention.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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I do wonder about the reduction “largely because of duplication”.

Is it because they test in one location but live in another?

I did note on the Age’s sliding map that the LGA near Mildira had an active case for one day, which to me is surprising.
 

lovetravellingoz

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I do wonder about the reduction “largely because of duplication”.


My guess is that they are not referring to duplication within the day's result, but rather duplications that have been found over time (past cases). ie You can imagine that some people may have been tested more than once with a positive test each time. OR the once case may somehow have been entered twice, With tens of thousands of tests being down in a rush errors may creep in.

Numbers are changed on a regular basis. ie One cause for this could be say a false positive, where a subsequent test shows that they are actually positive.

Is it because they test in one location but live in another?
I don't know specifically about the Ages graphic, but with the Vic DHHS.

Cases by Local Government Area

  • Residential location is the residential address provided when the case is notified.
  • This is not where they were infected and may not be where the case currently resides.


Sometimes mistakes happen too by the person making the table, graphic. ie I have seen obviously wrong numbers in various fields/graphs on multiple CV19 sites around the world. which get changed. Often very quickly when super-obvious.
 
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lovetravellingoz

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I’m surprised that the 216 is used and not 181 I guess it sounds worse.


216 new cases today.

Cumulative total up by 181 as they made some corrections to past data.
Data adjustments have happened since the beginning, and in all states.

Also biggest number of new infections 236,918 I thought would have got a bigger mention.
236,918 is a big number. What is it for?
 
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tgh

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236,918 is a big number

Daily tested covid positives worldwide ….about a million every five days .
In a week or so we will have a million new cases every four days
In a month ????

addendum.. the infection daily rate is escalating with no sign of a plateau…... just imagine the real number including untested infections
7.8 billion.. hmmm anyone good at maths.. maybe better we do not know...
 

Pushka

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236,918 is a big number

Daily tested covid positives worldwide ….about a million every five days .
In a week or so we will have a million new cases every four days
In a month ????

addendum.. the infection daily rate is escalating with no sign of a plateau…... just imagine the real number including untested infections
7.8 billion.. hmmm anyone good at maths.. maybe better we do not know...
I look at the patterns and see it differently. It isn't like the same populations are experiencing exponential growth over several months but it seems more like a wave that peaks in an area and then it moves on to a different region. In the US it started in the N.Y. area and that peaked and fell and now it's moved down south. The same concept applies to different countries.
 

jakeseven7

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And not that I have been out, but reports are that facemask wearing is up, and shopping centres etc not as busy.
Family in Melbourne are saying face masks are most definitely being used alot
in supermarkets and on PT, following the CHO’s advice. Which is probably the only place you will find a crowd these days I suppose anyway!

I must admit although I’m not in an at risk group by age or condition I have started wearing a reusable mask in Brisbane because social distancing has completely gone out the window, and now our borders are open with more free movement of people.

Both where I live and where I work - the shops are packed. It actually makes people move away from you in shops actually - probably think I have covid! Works for me.
 

lovetravellingoz

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I look at the patterns and see it differently. It isn't like the same populations are experiencing exponential growth over several months but it seems more like a wave that peaks in an area and then it moves on to a different region. In the US it started in the N.Y. area and that peaked and fell and now it's moved down south. The same concept applies to different countries.
In the USA the individual states vary wildly and you can see many different growth patterns. Some like NY have gone up and are now reducing. Some like Texas and Florida have had for the USA relatively low cases going sideways, but are now climbing steeply. California has basically had slow and steady growth, but is now more rapid. Indiana has basically gone sideways after climbing early. Kansas is having a second surge.

One could argue that some states like Texas, Florida and California are yet to peak and have just had continual growth.
1594482941554.png
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And the USA as a whole has more than doubled its daily case rate over he last month.
1594483462226.png
 

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drron

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Though genomic testing says that between 65-75% of cases of Covid have their origin in New York.
A little less on the West Coast as they were hit first by the Asian mutation,New York by the European mutation.

So basically the same story all over.people decide to go where ever they think things are better.
 

lovetravellingoz

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Though genomic testing says that between 65-75% of cases of Covid have their origin in New York.
A little less on the West Coast as they were hit first by the Asian mutation,New York by the European mutation.

So basically the same story all over.people decide to go where ever they think things are better.

While yes the paths of seeding are known, I think it most unlikely that people have moved en masse as there does not seem to have been reports on this. While yes I would imagine that a small minority have relocated, including normal seasonal movement patterns like the "Sunbirds" I cannot recall reading reports that vast numbers are moving to flee the virus. Florida is a holiday state, but would not the infected be recorded in their residential state?

The seeding I would imagine has been from relatively normal movements, and the USA does have so many cities and connections. This would include holidays, visiting family, work trips etc as well as just the normal relaction that happens alot more in the USA than in Australia.

Also the infected are over represented in the poor and the disadvantaged who do not really have the resources to relocate within the USA. And also amongst the young who are over-represented apart from the holiday makers do they have the resources to have moved? I mean California has 40 odd million people.

So is there really any data to show that their cases are primarily people that have relocated rather than are locals?
 

lovetravellingoz

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273 for Victoria today....
With many of the infected still to turn positive you would imagine that our numbers will keep coming out high per day for at a least a week. And that would just be from those that already infected, but do not yet know it. Others still being affected could balloon things of course. We hope not, but we are all in the hands of how well everyone else is physical distancing and not mixing.
 

oz_mark

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With many of the infected still to turn positive you would imagine that our numbers will keep coming out high per day for at a least a week. And that would just be from those that already infected, but do not yet know it. Others still being affected could balloon things of course. We hope not, but we are all in the hands of how well everyone else is physical distancing and not mixing.
From my observation, much of the distancing has gone out the window....
 

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