Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

lovetravellingoz

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Just when I thought another day or two of cases about 1500 and the curve may be flattened, and there's another spike back up close to 2000 cases in VIC.

Thursdays tend to be spike days.

I think the theory is that people mix more on the weekends (both within and outside of the rules) get infected and then become symptomatic mid-week and then go and get tested. And last weekend people would have been mixing a lot more including visits in the home.


Professor Cowie said one of the positive "topline trends" was a dip in the Thursday cases compared to previous weeks.
Thursday's cases are often higher than other days, which could be attributable to increased activity and transmission on weekends.
"But for the first time in three weeks, our Thursday figure is just under 2,000, which is good to see," he said
25 deaths is a large number too, though that's a lagging indicator of the high case number's we've been having.

Yes a lag indicator. Plus back when most of the those who have unfortunately died recently were likely to have been infected, LGA's of concern where most of the deaths have been were still only at 35-40% second dose rate.

And on re-opening at the state average of 70% second dose of most the LGA's of concern was still under 70% (By contrast in NSW the LGA's of concern were well above the state average) which was a rapid increase. And it is still steadily increasing.

Vic is still probably a week away from getting all LGA's and all age cohorts being at a healthy second dose rate (12-15 the one exception due their starting later, but who are rapidly rising, will probably be the only age cohort not yet at 70% by then). Plus say 10 days for those latter second doses to become fully effective.
 
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HappyFlyerFamily

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Just when I thought another day or two of cases about 1500 and the curve may be flattened, and there's another spike back up close to 2000 cases in VIC. 25 deaths is a large number too, though that's a lagging indicator of the high case number's we've been having.
Hopefully, most new known positives are fully vaccinated which if NSW's experience is replicated in Vic means peaks of less than 1000 hospitalised and 200 ICU (NSW peak was I think 1240s for hospital and 230s ICU within 2 weeks of new known positives peak). I think even NSW had a one-off high/'outlier' after number of new known positives started falling lol
 

Quickstatus

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so standby ……
Both Albury and Wodonga have a >95% 1Jab and nearly 80% 2Jab so on paper is well protected
However and unfortunately there is a particular problem with obesity in that area.
Hospitalisations attributable to obesity in the (Albury Wodonga Health) AWH catchment area was on par with the average in NSW in 2015 but since then has been climbing above the average, And is one of the few local health districts hit hard by the obesity pandemic.
(Can also search by your favourite NSW LGA in the above link)

Now:
Average for NSW 700 per 100,000 population - fairly static
AWH currently 1075 per 100,000 (in 2019)

About 40% of ICU CovidPos are also obese.
 
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lovetravellingoz

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Hopefully, most new known positives are fully vaccinated


In Vic most cases (ie known positives) are still amongst the unvaccinated:

Acting CHO Ben Cowie says 85% of those who have tested positive for COVID in the past 7 days were not fully vaccinated.

Most of the recent (ie active) cases are now in age cohorts with low or no vaccinations (ie under 12). https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/victorian-coronavirus-covid-19-data

The 16-39 cohort vaccination rate is now rapidly increasing. ie Up 11-14 % for second doses over the last week. But is still too low in 39 and under.

1635392300491.png

We know vaccinations work, and in another week or so we will be in a more robust situation in Vic.

which if NSW's experience is replicated in Vic means peaks of less than 1000 hospitalised and 200 ICU (NSW peak was I think 1240s for hospital and 230s ICU within 2 weeks of new known positives peak).

Hospitalisations seem to have already plateaued.
 

antycbr

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Rumours that NSW will no longer relax unvaccinated lockdown on 1 December but ONLY when the rate goes through 95% double dose.

This is a great pressurecooker tactic, combined with employer vaccination mandates - I know my work issued ours today.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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Rumours that NSW will no longer relax unvaccinated lockdown on 1 December but ONLY when the rate goes through 95% double dose.

This is a great pressurecooker tactic, combined with employer vaccination mandates - I know my work issued ours today.
Interesting. That might take until very close to Christmas.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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Victoria - 1656 new, 70k tests, 738 hospital, 130 ICU
NSW - 268 new, 82k tests, 363 hospital, 80 ICU
ACT - 10 new, 1.6k tests, 9 hospital, 6 ICU
 

Lynda2475

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Rumours that NSW will no longer relax unvaccinated lockdown on 1 December but ONLY when the rate goes through 95% double dose.

This is a great pressurecooker tactic, combined with employer vaccination mandates - I know my work issued ours today.

Don't think any sensible person would care too much about that, if you are 12 or older and aren't vaccinated then its your choice not to be, and you are choosing to be excluded.

My employer issued vax mandate to work on site (or customer site) on 1 September. Policy is no new unvaxed hires, any existing hires who arent fully vaxed must continue to WFH and if their roles doesn't support that well you need to leave.
 

mviy

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Rumours that NSW will no longer relax unvaccinated lockdown on 1 December but ONLY when the rate goes through 95% double dose.

This is a great pressurecooker tactic, combined with employer vaccination mandates - I know my work issued ours today.
Well the numbers coming forward for first doses that haven't had one yet has slowed to a crawl in NSW, so it wouldn't be that surprising if they felt they had to do something to try to change that.
 

Lynda2475

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Well the numbers coming forward for first doses that haven't had one yet has slowed to a crawl in NSW, so it wouldn't be that surprising if they felt they had to do something to try to change that.

All but 5 ages bands are over 90% first dosed already and only one aged band is under 80% (the 12-15s who were last to get access), there arent actually that many tardy people to follow up.

They didnt really have to do anything, we have been out of lockdown for 3 weeks with no massive surge in case numbers or hospitalizations, as NSW opened up with a significantly lower amount of circulating virus than Vic did.

But i care not if the anti-vaxers stayed locked out.
 
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Lynda2475

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More reductions in hospitalizations and ICU cases, and first dose vaccinations closing in on 95%.

FC0UfCTUUAMwL7a
 

Must...Fly!

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Personally feel more and more uncomfortable with the enforcement of restrictions for unvaccinated people when we're hitting the mid 90s in terms of a jab rate. Starts to set some, let's say interesting, precedents going forward.
 

Quickstatus

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The information I have been getting for the last week to 2 weeks “behind the scenes” is basically quiet optimism. (Small sample yes)
From sept 28…

Basically to recap, Despite the doom and gloom, “let it rip” rhetoric, fear politics, media commentary from so called experts, the general view among my colleagues was and still is quietly optimistic.

There was not a crystal ball, but when everyone out there is pushing one outcome, you know the truth is somewhat different.
 
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