- Jul 13, 2006
Just when I thought another day or two of cases about 1500 and the curve may be flattened, and there's another spike back up close to 2000 cases in VIC.
Thursdays tend to be spike days.
I think the theory is that people mix more on the weekends (both within and outside of the rules) get infected and then become symptomatic mid-week and then go and get tested. And last weekend people would have been mixing a lot more including visits in the home.
Professor Cowie said one of the positive "topline trends" was a dip in the Thursday cases compared to previous weeks.
Thursday's cases are often higher than other days, which could be attributable to increased activity and transmission on weekends.
"But for the first time in three weeks, our Thursday figure is just under 2,000, which is good to see," he said
25 deaths is a large number too, though that's a lagging indicator of the high case number's we've been having.
Yes a lag indicator. Plus back when most of the those who have unfortunately died recently were likely to have been infected, LGA's of concern where most of the deaths have been were still only at 35-40% second dose rate.
And on re-opening at the state average of 70% second dose of most the LGA's of concern was still under 70% (By contrast in NSW the LGA's of concern were well above the state average) which was a rapid increase. And it is still steadily increasing.
Vic is still probably a week away from getting all LGA's and all age cohorts being at a healthy second dose rate (12-15 the one exception due their starting later, but who are rapidly rising, will probably be the only age cohort not yet at 70% by then). Plus say 10 days for those latter second doses to become fully effective.