Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[burmans]

Like Gladys I'm not really a fan of using a model to predict exact numbers and dates, the inputs change too much. Ranges and trends I feel more comfortable with.

But if pushed I'd be predicting below 2000, in fact probably below 1500 but as everyone would know the numbers jump around a lot so a couple of bad days would change the prediction a fair bit (the trend not so much). When does it fall below 1, I'll be an optimist and say before mid September, possible as soon as 7-10 days. But once again, a few bad days would blow this out but probably only by a week or so, I think the general mid-Sept figure is not far off.

 

[justinbrett]

Meanwhile, turns out Brad Hazzard was right all along.

NSW may never control COVID-19 outbreak and be forced to live with virus for good, Health Minister says

The next nine days will determine what the rest of 2021 looks like in NSW as authorities consider the possibility the state's COVID-19 outbreak may never be controlled.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Dan Andrews talking now. Haven't seen him this serious since last year.

"These numbers won't go down. These numbers will go up. The question is, by how much".

Officially VIC & NSW now have the same strategy. It's all about vaccination.

like it should have been 6 months ago

 

[Rembrandt]

Far out so at least another month (probably 6 weeks) of strict lock down in Vic (not that all are following the rules). I don't know how some businesses are going to survive this. This is more of an economic reset than last year.

 

[dairyfloss]

Meanwhile, turns out Brad Hazzard was right all along.

NSW may never control COVID-19 outbreak and be forced to live with virus for good, Health Minister says

The next nine days will determine what the rest of 2021 looks like in NSW as authorities consider the possibility the state's COVID-19 outbreak may never be controlled.

www.abc.net.au

Bless the cranky visionary

 

[Rembrandt]

like it should have been 6 months ago

The Morrison government did a great job securing vaccine

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Do observers still think the vaccination screws will continue to be turned in NSW at 80%??? Freedoms only for the fully vaccinated.........and when do people think the unvaccinated in NSW will be let out???

 

[burmans]

Bless the cranky visionary

I quite enjoy watching Brad, particularly when he's dealing with some (unnamed but you can probably guess) stupid journalists.

 

[justinbrett]

Far out so at least another month (probably 6 weeks) of strict lock down in Vic (not that all are following the rules). I don't know how some businesses are going to survive this. This is more of an economic reset than last year.

I think most people will take 6 more weeks of lockdown if it means when we come out, we stay out, and everything is open including international travel. I'd much rather live on this side of the border compared to other states trying to keep me safe.

The Morrison government did a great job securing vaccine

Yes it did. Even our own production line of one of the world's most successful vaccines, and something like 6 million doses sitting in a warehouse waiting to be used. And we're also helping our Pacific neighbours with it.

 

[OATEK]

Do observers still think the vaccination screws will continue to be turned in NSW at 80%??? Freedoms only for the fully vaccinated.........and when do people think the unvaccinated in NSW will be let out???

I thought the NSW Premier was quite clear today. Vaxxed released at 70%, the rest at 80%.

 

[dairyfloss]

I quite enjoy watching Brad, particularly when he's dealing with some (unnamed but you can probably guess) stupid journalists.

As do I - I reckon he'd be a good laugh at the pub, too

 

[justinbrett]

I quite enjoy watching Brad, particularly when he's dealing with some (unnamed but you can probably guess) stupid journalists.

I've got a working theory that Brad Hazzard and Martin Foley are actually the same person.

Has anyone ever seen them together?

 

[Must...Fly!]

"These numbers won't go down. These numbers will go up. The question is, by how much".

Ah so zero is officially dead then?

Haven't seen him this serious since last year.

I probably would be a bit stressed out if I was him now as well, for a number of reasons both directly and indirectly related to COVID.

 

[justinbrett]

Ah so zero is officially dead then?

Yes, officially. VIC are on team Gladys now (probably won't call it that, working title...)

I probably would be a bit stressed out if I was him now as well, for a number of reasons both directly and indirectly related to COVID.

I can't speak for Victorians, but I would think this a relief. I'd be much more worried if I lived in a state that thinks it could just keep the borders shut indefinitely.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I thought the NSW Premier was quite clear today. Vaxxed released at 70%, the rest at 80%.

Really? Was a bit preoccupied and I missed that - what a great opportunity lost

I was hoping for something like 3-4 weeks or one month after 80% double dose or something like that, just to make sure hospitalisation numbers are back to "normal" levels or NSW have normal rules for surgeries etc.

 

[dairyfloss]

Yes, officially. VIC are on team Gladys now (probably won't call it that, working title...)

It's really more of a 'NSW-style' solution.........

Post automatically merged: Sep 1, 2021

Really? Was a bit preoccupied and I missed that - what a great opportunity lost

I was hoping for something like 3-4 weeks or one month after 80% double dose or something like that

They can probably get out of their homes at 80%... but they won't be getting into many places without their shots

 

[Must...Fly!]

I can't speak for Victorians, but I would think this a relief. I'd be much more worried if I lived in a state that thinks it could just keep the borders shut indefinitely.

Every one of VIC, QLD, SA, WA, ACT and even NZ is going to have a problem messaging to the base (of the respective government's own creation) that demand COVID zero.

Post automatically merged: Sep 1, 2021

A friend sent me this transcript from Andrews;

We have thrown everything at this, but it is now clear to us that we are not going to drive these numbers down, they’re instead going to increase.

Now it’s up to us to make sure they don’t increase too fast and they don’t increase too much relative to the number of people who are getting vaccinated every single day every single week. I much prefer to be here announce that we’re opening up. There’ll be a time for that, but it simply can’t be before we get to 70% double dose and 80% double dose.

There are some things we can do along the way. I have announced some of them today. We will look very carefully at whether there is more that we can do and if we can do that safely, then that will add to the list for the 22 or 23 September.

Until then, please get tested as soon as you have symptoms. Please follow these rules, they’re about your safety as much as anyone else’s. They’re about making sure our nurses and doctors don’t have more work to do and, please, go online and book a vaccination appointment, talk to your pharmacist, talk to your GP.

There’s vaccines there available. Let’s use up all those appointments. This is a race to 80.

And that's about as close as you'll get to "the plan is the plan".

Good. Let's do it.

 

[N860CR]

Dan Andrews talking now. Haven't seen him this serious since last year.

"These numbers won't go down. These numbers will go up. The question is, by how much".

Officially VIC & NSW now have the same strategy. It's all about vaccination.

Interesting watching Andrews and Berejiklian side to side. There’s clearly a sense of optimism in NSW which will flow through to the public. This is helping NSW accept that “cases” happen and as do deaths. Andrews seems to be sticking with his somber approach. Might be time for a shift in Victoria’s messaging.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

It's really more of a 'NSW-style' solution.........

Post automatically merged: Sep 1, 2021

They can probably get out of their homes at 80%... but they won't be getting into many places without their shots

I have heard of some instances of multi-generational family disagreements, some vaccinating and some not. I guess some family gatherings won't quite be whole.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Interesting watching Andrews and Berejiklian side to side. There’s clearly a sense of optimism in NSW which will flow through to the public. This is helping NSW accept that “cases” happen and as do deaths. Andrews seems to be sticking with his somber approach. Might be time for a shift in Victoria’s messaging.

It is shifting, but it has to be really carefully managed - that's how the Victorian government do things. Not a criticism, but it is how it's done down here. Brett Sutton said "my advice has changed...it's a recognition that things have changed with Delta"

We got there in the end, and the stories of the lockdowns north of the border being lacking, or compliance being poor, are finally behind us.

Get vaccinated.