Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[SydneySwan]

I just did a survey about covid and asking how many deaths a year is acceptable when things are open. I think I picked the option 100 to 1000.

So flu numbers?

 

[kyle]

So flu numbers?

Just covid deaths.

 

[SydneySwan]

Just covid deaths.

I meant covid deaths same as flu deaths.

 

[Pushka]

UK pretty much abandoned all social measures like distancing and masks a few weeks ago. They went full Monty. If we can put up with the masks in certain situations and reduce numbers then infection rates will not be the same. And in some states very different - eg SA has less dense housing. People will not return in droves to the cities but I'm thinking London may be different.

From the ABS

In 2017 there were 1,255 deaths due to influenza, recording a standardised death rate of 3.9 per 100,000 persons.

 

[TonyHancock]

UK pretty much abandoned all social measures like distancing and masks a few weeks ago. They went full Monty. If we can put up with the masks in certain situations and reduce numbers then infection rates will not be the same. And in some states very different - eg SA has less dense housing. People will not return in droves to the cities but I'm thinking London may be different.

London isn't the problem. You'd think it would be because of population density,

 

[Pushka]

London isn't the problem. You'd think it would be because of population density,

View attachment 256631

Non vaccinated groups then? What's up with Cornwall though?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

VicGovDH
@VicGovDH

Replying to
@VicGovDH
Of the 64 locally-acquired cases, 49 are linked to known outbreaks and 36 have been in quarantine throughout their infectious period. [2/2]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1431386327870676995

So a much better set of numbers today. Now to find out more on the 15 cases under investigation.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Non vaccinated groups then? What's up with Cornwall though?

Summer holiday makers? Not sure on the demographics of the area but I'd assume it's got a generally older profile.

 

[TonyHancock]

Non vaccinated groups then? What's up with Cornwall though?

I can't make head nor tail of it, I think there may have been some sort of music festival down in Cornwall. Northern Ireland seems to have been like that for ages too. I would like to see more data published on vaccinated v unvaccinated.

 

[jase05]

Summer holiday makers? Not sure on the demographics of the area but I'd assume it's got a generally older profile.

Newquay is the surf capital of the UK and a party town. It’s their version of Byron Bay. They recently had a huge surfing and music festival which has turned into a super spreading event. Lots of young party goers flock there from around the country. I have rellies in Falmouth currently and they reckon it’s not great down there and tourists told to stay away

 

[clarkkent]

A critique of the Doherty report: Australian public fed nonsense as country heads to “irreversible” decision.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

London isn't the problem. You'd think it would be because of population density,

View attachment 256631

London is not the problem now in large part as it was the problem much earlier on.

A large chunk of Londoners have already had Covid.

 

[jb747]

To be honest, that’s a argument for just letting it rip. Or lockdowns forever.

 

[kyle]

A critique of the Doherty report: Australian public fed nonsense as country heads to “irreversible” decision.

Whether it's nonsense or not, I feel that Australia must follow the rest of the world and open up and not try to outsmart the virus

 

[TonyHancock]

London is not the problem now in large part as it was the problem much earlier on.

A large chunk of Londoners have already had Covid.

Well, yes, quite, but we are talking about today and the more recent increase in cases, deaths and hospitalisations.

Part of the problem is the way the MSM presents data too. I am interested in the split between the vaccinated and unvaccinated which does not seem to be well reported.

 

[Pushka]

A critique of the Doherty report: Australian public fed nonsense as country heads to “irreversible” decision.

The Doherty model was used at the commencement of the Pandemic and other than a few bumps along the way, worked well. Australia will learn what measures need to be retained once 80% is reached.

Until the data accurately reports illness (as opposed to just being positive) in a comparison of the vaccinated/non vaccinated population then it's meaningless.

 

[ketsuzei]

A critique of the Doherty report: Australian public fed nonsense as country heads to “irreversible” decision.

"The Doherty modeling appears to be nothing more than manufactured scientific opinion to achieve a political outcome by working the numbers backwards."

Pretty much sums it up, but I'm not sure why anyone should be surprised by that.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

The Doherty model was used at the commencement of the Pandemic and other than a few bumps along the way, worked well. Australia will learn what measures need to be retained once 80% is reached.

Until the data accurately reports illness (as opposed to just being positive) in a comparison of the vaccinated/non vaccinated population then it's meaningless.

Perhaps not quite what you are after but in NSW

- 1% of positive, none in ICU are fully vaccinated
- 3% of positive, under or around 10% of total covid ICU patients are 1 dose vaccinated for more than 3 weeks

Edit: I think at the time the NSW population was about 10% fully vaxxed and 30% 1 dose vaxxed. (of eligible population)

 

[Must...Fly!]

A critique of the Doherty report: Australian public fed nonsense as country heads to “irreversible” decision.

If one were to investigate the background of the author, one might discover that

1) He is a "technology entrepreneur", not an epidemiologist or public health expert

2) Runs a freelancing platform which he openly admits has seen a surge of users due to lockdowns and job market issues (Matt Barrie of Freelancer Limited Tells Us How the Pandemic has Affected the Gig Economy)

3) Backed in Facebook in the stoush with the government over paying for media content (Tech sector backs Facebook fightback against shakedown)

4) Has advocated for defunding the CSIRO, ABC, SBS and Tourism Australia...

 

[tgh]

background of the author

Perhaps.. but a quick read seems to indicate some less than diligent science is being utilised to make us all safe…..