Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[justinbrett]

The government can influence WFH indirectly by allowing businesses to point to government guidance that WFH has to end. WFH is an agreement between you and the employer, and employers can come up with all sorts of reasons why they need staff in the office rather than at home. WFH is not guaranteed in most workplaces.

If we're looking to stop the spread of the virus, WFH is a key element. The government's aspirations seem to directly contradict that, even if we have 70 or 80% vaccination.

The government would never say "WFH has to end". WFH existed before covid. It will exist after covid, when it suits the employee and employer.

An employer is entitled to require its employees to come to the office.

Stopping the spread is the 2020/21 mantra. In 2022 we won't even know the extent it is out there, most people will be asymptomatic and I doubt we will be testing anywhere near the extent we are now.

Time to put the doona away.

 

[Princess Fiona]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t that what virtually every other country has done and managed to bring it under control? UK, US, Israel… they didn’t get positive test results to zero (nor did they reach 80%).

The UK has 78% fully vaccinated, Israel higher and both seem to be doing ok with hospitalization/ ICU.

The US has not managed to bring hospitalization/ ICU etc under control in large parts of the southern states where they have much lower percentages of fully vaccinated.

EDIT
This is how you live with Covid
Israel has 515 people in hospital.
The chart shows how effective the vaccines are a preventing severe disease in every age group

 

[kamchatsky]

No only some are and the ones who aren't need to be shut down, the same way that a cafe that breaches the rule has to stop trading.

We need consistent penalties for breaches, not preferential treatement for some.

Fines for other businesses doing the wrong thing (with far fewer than 60 people involved) have been fined more and forced to stop trading. Why do you think it is ok that the same not apply to the business of religion?

But isn't that the same as other non-religious organisations that any rule breakers will be fined and deal with the consequences from the police?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

This is what I said.



This is what you said, and I am sorry of that is the inference you took.

What I mean is this. We, the general public, are not usually made aware of the number if people in ICU and their medical diagnosis that landed them there. I think that is quite appropriate. And I also think it is appropriate that we should not have the ins and outs of people who are in ICU with COVID either. In no way am I saying that people in ICU with COVID or any other reason don't matter.

Thanks for the clarification.

The reason why Covid is important here and now is that its 'novel', its not fully treated and its a leading cause - if I'm not mistaken there are less than 1000 public and private ICU beds in NSW. There needs to be an interim public health response (eg lockdowns etc) until its considered fully treated (ie 80% fully vaccinated).

 

[Lynda2475]

he government can influence WFH indirectly by allowing businesses to point to government guidance that WFH has to end.

The guidance would be that the "WFH if you can" is no longer required, they cant say it "has to end".

Many employers have had WFH policies for a decade before Covid, usually require an OH&S assessment, and ability to do so is subject to performance and productivity metrics. Nothing the govenrment recommends will stop you from negotiating with your employer.

 

[Batterytraveller]

The government would never say "WFH has to end". WFH existed before covid. It will exist after covid, when it suits the employee and employer.

the last ASX100 company I worked for spend years and millions trying to persuade more of its staff to adopt flexible working practices (read work from home and hot desk so they can spend less on office space). One of the few good things to come out of the last couple of years has been how working from home, or indeed anywhere else has shown to be effective. (In my case I think being in the same place as my team about once a fortnight would be good)

We will have different patterns after this.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

The guidance would be that the "WFH if you can" is no longer required, they cant say it "has to end".

Many employers have had WFH policies for a decade before Covid, usually require an OH&S assessment, and ability to do so is subject to performance and productivity metrics. Nothing the govenrment recommends will stop you from negotiating with your employer.

The PM said specifically that work from home is not suitable for Australia. Can't get any more of a backing for business than that. WFH on as large a scale as we have seen during covid has not been around for a decade.

 

[Lynda2475]

But isn't that the same as other non-religious organisations that any rule breakers will be fined and deal with the consequences from the police?

The whole point is that the church in question was given much less severe treatment than other business who had more minor breaches but were forced to shut down and fined more. Enforcement needs to be equitable, as the virus will exploit all opportunities.

 

[jakeseven7]

We will have different patterns after this.

Yes for a while I suppose, perhaps, but no one size fits all so will be up to individuals what they do and don’t want to do. Certainly using it as a tool for stopping the virus spread in Australia will soon be redundant though.

 

[justinbrett]

WFH on as large a scale as we have seen during covid has not been around for a decade.

And nor should it. It is not good for society.

 

[Lynda2475]

The PM said specifically that work from home is not suitable for Australia. Can't get any more of a backing for business than that. WFH on as large a scale as we have seen during covid has not been around for a decade.

That was a statement not a policy, the current "you must wfh if you can" is actually health policy covered by state health orders, which should quite rightly be lifted when we hit 70%.

And BTW the first large scale WFH initiative was in Sept 2000 during the Sydney Olympics, office workers who didnt take leave were all given VPN access and working remotely, as we were asked not to commute because of traffic concerns. It didnt include Video Conferencing, but email and remote server access was employed.

And I have many colleagues who have been WFH on a part time bases for over 10 years, it may be new to you, but not new by any means and can be negotiated, but is not the preferred way of working for most.

 

[N860CR]

The UK has 78% fully vaccinated, Israel higher and both seem to be doing ok with hospitalization/ ICU.

Ok so the UK still hasn’t reached 80%, and reopened with far less. They’ve also reopened far more than we will and with a much higher baseline of cases and things are still under control.

The US has not managed to bring hospitalization/ ICU etc under control in large parts of the southern states where they have much lower percentages of fully vaccinated

Sadly, you can’t force people to help themselves. It’s not to indifferent to those in Australia who put off getting vaccinated.

The data does suggest that the opinions of the WA and QLD governments is very much incorrect.

 

[OATEK]

The whole point is that the church in question was given much less severe treatment than other business who had more minor breaches but were forced to shut down and fined more. Enforcement needs to be equitable, as the virus will exploit all opportunities.

They were given far more severe treatment than the Maroubra party goers who have infected so many. My preference is to leave the administration of justice to the Police and concentrate on what we can do to curb the spread of Covid, and this basically comes down to continuing to talk up vaccination.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

A very big risk to any opening up

Richard managed to forge a COVID vaccine certificate. It took him 10 minutes

Near-perfect forgeries of the federal government's COVID-19 vaccine digital certificate can be made in 10 minutes using free software, a member of the public has discovered.

www.abc.net.au

Near-perfect forgeries of the federal government's COVID-19 vaccine digital certificate can be made in 10 minutes using free software, a member of the public has discovered.

Richard Nelson, a software engineer in Sydney, has found an "obvious" security flaw in the Express Plus Medicare app allowing him to make vaccine certificates with any name and date of birth and featuring the background animations meant to prevent forgery.

The Prime Minister has previously said the certificates are a "credible and effective" way for states to administer exemptions from aspects of lockdowns.

The discovery of the flaw could put a hold on state and federal governments allowing the vaccinated more freedoms.

Mr Nelson found the security hole in the current system (which was launched more than two months ago) while mucking around with the Express Plus Medicare app one evening last week.

 

[Must...Fly!]

A very big risk to any opening up

Shouldn't be any risk to anyone who is vaccinated.

 

[Lynda2475]

They were given far more severe treatment than the Maroubra party goers who have infected so many

Congregants at the church and partgoers got the same fine. Im talking about business consequence, the party wasnt business sponosred, the church service was.

Shouldn't be any risk to anyone who is vaccinated.

Exactly.

The person forged a PDF certficate, but the vaccine passport will be embedded in the state based QR app, you wont be able to upload a fake PDF, the State govenrment app will source your status from Medicare vaccination register if you consent.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Reality is I imagine by the time we get to hospitality having a "safe opening", they will be required to scan a QR code on your device, which will link back to Medicare/AIR database to prove your certificate as valid. As is happening in many European countries.

 

[Lynda2475]

Reality is I imagine by the time we get to hospitality having a "safe opening", they will be required to scan a QR code on your device, which will link back to Medicare/AIR database to prove your certificate as valid. As is happening in many European countries.

Yes that is what was announced last week.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

This is a table showing every case in Victoria at present by outbreak, and while it says key outbreaks in the title it is actually every outbreak and every case.

Cases currently linked to key outbreaks​

23/08/2021

Cluster name	Active cases
Al-Taqwa College Truganina	133
Glenroy West Primary School	53
City of Hobsons Bay Community	51
MyCentre Childcare Broadmeadows	50
City of Greater Shepparton Community	36
CS Square Caroline Springs	25
Newport Football Club Altona North	20
City of Port Philip St Kilda East Community	17
Fitzroy St Precinct St Kilda	16
City of Melbourne Carlton Community	13
Islamic College of Melbourne Tarneit	11
City of Moreland Community	10
Royal Melbourne Hospital Ward 6SE Parkville	10
City of Melbourne North Melbourne Community	9
Mount Alexander College Flemington	7
City of Wyndham Community	7
City of Melton Shopping Precinct	4
DNR Logistics Clayton	3
City of Melbourne Community	2
Royal Victorian Eye and Ear Hospital Outpatient Clinic A	2
The Royal Children's Hospital Melbourne Outpatient Clinic 15	2
Alfred Health The Alfred Emergency Waiting Room Melbourne	2
Dallas Brooks Community Primary School	2
Northern Health Northern Hospital Emergency Department Epping	2
The Learning Sanctuary Spotswood	2
Western Autistic School Laverton	2
Western Health Sunshine Hospital Emergency Department	2
Frankston Community	1
Debney Meadows Primary School Flemington	1
Carlton Primary School	1
COVID-19 202108 Werribee Mercy Hospital	1
Corpus Christi Primary School Glenroy	1
Goodstart Early Learning Hall Road Carrum Downs	1
Goulburn Valley Health Dental Department Tier 1B	1
Goulburn Valley Health Medical Imaging Department	1
Rupert St Child Care & Kindergarten Collingwood	1
University of Melbourne Shepparton Campus Shepparton	1
Yarra Primary School Richmond	1

 

[moa999]

Can a vaccine-led approach end NSW’s outbreak in 100 days, or at least substantially reduce morbidity and mortality?

Background and Aims The New South Wales (NSW) COVID-19 outbreak is at 478 daily cases on August 16, 2021. Our aims were to: 1. estimate the time required to reach ≤5 cases per day under three lockdown strengths (weak, moderate, strong), and four vaccination rollouts: (a) per the original...

www.medrxiv.org

The whole thesis of the paper is getting down to <5 cases a day.

I simply can't see that happening full stop.

Even if we are 100% vaccinated, the vaccine isn't completely effective.

Lockdowns don't work because you still have authorised workers, and the quicker spread of Delta versus prior variants means CT is far more difficult.