Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

A number of new exposure sites were added in Victoria tonight for the 9th August which is suggestive that we will see some new cases in tomorrows figures. Though most were not Tier 1 sites.

Case alerts - public exposure sites | Coronavirus Victoria

Victorian locations where there is a risk you may have been exposed to COVID-19

www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au

 

[Must...Fly!]

The Vic model (with curfew) could be worth trying for a couple of weeks as a circuit breaker.

As a point, the Victorian model (without curfew) failed just a couple of weeks ago to bring a relatively small outbreak down to zero. The reward for the community was yet another lockdown last week which continues for most of the population through to next week, at least.

The reward as the end of the tunnel is zero COVID. Part of the problem is we are aware that is not going to be a sustainable outcome and in fact that we will have COVID circulating in the Victorian community by December without lockdowns.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

As a point, the Victorian model (without curfew) failed just a couple of weeks ago to bring a relatively small outbreak down to zero. The reward for the community was yet another lockdown last week which continues for most of the population through to next week, at least.

The reward as the end of the tunnel is zero COVID. Part of the problem is we are aware that is not going to be a sustainable outcome and in fact that we will have COVID circulating in the Victorian community by December without lockdowns.

I'd argue differently - the lockdown worked for all known cases, reducing those to zero.

Covid circulating with and without vaccination are two different things. We might have covid circulating in December with 80% vaccination rate. That doesn't mean we should allow covid to circulate now with a 25% vaccination rate.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Not so good news. But not bad either. Need to get cases in iso up to 100 %


From Epstein.

Hearing today’s number in Melb is in low 20s. So higher than yesterday.

Around 3 in 4 of the new cases in iso

 

[Must...Fly!]

I'd argue differently - the lockdown worked for all known cases, reducing those to zero.

The goal of the Victorian lockdowns is to get community transmission to zero, as stated by the Premier himself. Not to get known cases to zero. By definition, the 5th Melbourne lockdown failed.

This footage of the police out to stop people exercising their right to protest was rather humorous - great use of resources

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1425398160071950337

 

[OATEK]

I'd argue differently - the lockdown worked for all known cases, reducing those to zero.

Covid circulating with and without vaccination are two different things. We might have covid circulating in December with 80% vaccination rate. That doesn't mean we should allow covid to circulate now with a 25% vaccination rate.

So that's all right then, all known cases were covered. The fact that the virus was still circulating though is an inconvenient truth.

 

[bcworld]

The goal of the Victorian lockdowns is to get community transmission to zero, as stated by the Premier himself. Not to get known cases to zero. By definition, the 5th Melbourne lockdown failed.

This footage of the police out to stop people exercising their right to protest was rather humorous - great use of resources

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1425398160071950337

I'm sure you'll have been disappointed by the poor turnout.

Still, this clip is much better with Benny Hill music on top.

 

[Must...Fly!]

I'm sure you'll have been disappointed by the poor turnout.

Still, this clip is much better with Benny Hill music on top.

Odd thing to say. Why would I have been disappointed by the poor turnout? I've never been to any protest, ever, in my entire life.

 

[Pushka]

Benny Hill music on top.

Now that is stuck in my brain for the day.

 

[bcworld]

Now that is stuck in my brain for the day.

This won't help then.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1425428597133635584

 

[pagingjoan]

Your previous (completely unsupported) claim was:

You should probably stay away from numbers, they appear to give you difficulty.

I did ask for a source for that figure when it was quoted originally.
But there was no response.

 

[SydneySwan]

I'm sure you'll have been disappointed by the poor turnout.

Still, this clip is much better with Benny Hill music on top.

And the video sped up!

 

[jb747]

I’m a little surprised that some of the nastier groups within our society haven’t weaponised covid. Foster it in your little cell, and then seed it as far as you can. Or perhaps we have seen that, and nobody says so.

 

[bcworld]

Not so good news. But not bad either. Need to get cases in iso up to 100 %


From Epstein.

Hearing today’s number in Melb is in low 20s. So higher than yesterday.

Around 3 in 4 of the new cases in iso

2 'Acquired Interstate' - must be that QF flight.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1425589667106230272

 

[lovetravellingoz]

2 'Acquired Interstate' - must be that QF flight.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1425589667106230272

So potentially 4 mystery cases., though like yesterday it may be less if there are multiple linked cases within them.


In yesterday's 5 reported mystery cases there were really only 2 as the 5 was a family of 3 and another family of 2.


With presumably 2 from Sydney one wonders exactly what the exact process is for all NSW arrivals as they are all potentially infectious on every flight.

 

[SydneySwan]

With presumably 2 from Sydney one wonders exactly what the exact process is for all NSW arrivals as they are all potentially infectious on every flight.

Doesn't that apply to every flight from everywhere?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Doesn't that apply to every flight from everywhere?

No. Flights with pax from say Tas, WA and NT to Melbourne are most unlikely to have covid positive passengers.

Whereas flights from Sydney would have a high chance of a positive person on board.

So there are different rules depending where you fly in from. See Victorian Travel Permit System | Coronavirus Victoria

So I assume this will apply for people flying in from Sydney:

Even if you have an exemption, exception or Specified Worker Permit, conditions will still apply if you have been in an extreme risk zone. In most cases, these conditions will include quarantine for 14 days.​

​

​

The part I was wondering about is that HQ, or home quarantine? Some essential workers will still be arriving by air. Are they in HQ or just isolating as they go about their work.

If not escorted to HQ what are the protocols for those people getting about into to their quarantine location.

Now I don't know, which is why I was asking the question.

Note too that in this twin outbreak one cluster looks to have been from people flying in from Sydney.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

I’m a little surprised that some of the nastier groups within our society haven’t weaponised covid. Foster it in your little cell, and then seed it as far as you can. Or perhaps we have seen that, and nobody says so.

To what end? hard to be evil with a bio weapon that has a 99% recovery rate

 

[RAM]

Your previous (completely unsupported) claim was:

You should probably stay away from numbers, they appear to give you difficulty.

Mea culpa - I made a mistake in typing one post too quickly & not vetting it. I stand corrected.

Spoiler: Stuff

The incorrect post should have the word 'households' inserted after the '1 in 10'. This came from Don Weatherburn, Director, of NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research in the early 2000s. I thought it sounded too large and wondered if someone had served 12 custodial sentences (say) was counted 12 times in the denominator.

Afterwards I asked him and he said no, the denominator is based on the number of people who have served one or more custodial sentences. I asked whether he knew the figures for the rest of Australia & he said they were similar - some a little above & others a little below.

Here's everything you could every possibly want to know about crime (after the event) statistics for NSW. Worth a look if you want to really know what has happened in NSW - the reports are

BOCSAR | NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research

NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research is a statistical and research agency within the Department of Communities and Justice. It was established in 1969.

www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au

Contacted them this morning and asked if they can provide an update for the number who have served one or more custodial sentences living in NSW.

This may seem very familiar to recent NSW Health watchers....

Crime Maps | BOCSAR

crimetool.bocsar.nsw.gov.au

If in NSW, click on your LGA, then top right of the page - enter your postcode, you can slice & dice across all categories. Imagine if this was fully used for the vaccine information!

 

[esquire]

To what end? hard to be evil with a bio weapon that has a 99% recovery rate

I know it is on the radar with officials. Probably not as big a concern in Sydney at the moment but I think it is clear that intentionally spreading will result in quite a significant economic impact (and spread fear) especially in some states/areas of Australia.