Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

jase05

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Under the system in Australia that is up to the NSW Gov, and not the Feds.

Though it is really mainly up to the community at large.
Message clearly isn’t getting through. Welding doors shut is a bit too extreme but get the ADF and NSW police to barricade up the trouble spots and start enforcing home visiting rules
 

bcworld

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There has been a lot of press about the Qlink hostie who worked for about a week with delta symptoms, but nothing about the huge wave of covid you'd expect her to have started. Qld goes on each day with zero cases. The two don't seem to marry up...
You're talking about someone who flew 6 flights over 2 days. During those flights she was required to wear a mask at all times. Passengers on the flight were required to wear masks the vast majority of the time.

I'm sure at this stage we don't also need to still understand that not everyone carries the same viral load.
 

hydrabyss

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lovetravellingoz

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This was such a calm and well run press conference. Even the press weren't yellowing over each other with their questions.

Not sure I agree on the messaging though. No focus at all today so far on getting out and getting vaccinated with AZ (Unlike yesterday where this message was driven home).

Indeed the opposite as Hazzard's comments on Pfizer will probably be more likely to have people wait for Pfizer.

Even if more Pfizer was available now it would still take months (time to inject everyone, and the time for the vaccination to work) for it to have any significant effect on transmission rates.



However the key right here and now is minimising mixing. This was emphasised, but no action on how to improve things (Though Dr Chant is meant to working on this over the weekend).
 
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MARTINE

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Luck plays a big part as most people are not spreaders. ie BBQ Man in Sydney with Delta only infected his wife.

If we look at the current Victorian twin outbreak (ie had two different initial seeds) we can see that:
  • Only 22% of cases have infected another person
  • 3% of cases created 50% of the transmissions
  • Two thirds of cases infected no one
So the Qlink FA may just be in the 8 in 10 people that do not tend to infect anyone.


From dbRaeven:

View attachment 253902
Post automatically merged:




About time. I posted a while back how this creates havoc with internal air pressures and hence how aerosols will float out through doors etc.

This should be really be so in true HQ though where transmission risk is so much higher.

One could argue though that a group with no cases like NRL is probably too strict though. I suspect that NRL is in part due the optics, and yes rule breaking.
the statistics simply bear out what is already know … v
Luck plays a big part as most people are not spreaders. ie BBQ Man in Sydney with Delta only infected his wife.

If we look at the current Victorian twin outbreak (ie had two different initial seeds) we can see that:
  • Only 22% of cases have infected another person
  • 3% of cases created 50% of the transmissions
  • Two thirds of cases infected no one
So the Qlink FA may just be in the 8 in 10 people that do not tend to infect anyone.


From dbRaeven:

View attachment 253902
Post automatically merged:




About time. I posted a while back how this creates havoc with internal air pressures and hence how aerosols will float out through doors etc.

This should be really be so in true HQ though where transmission risk is so much higher.

One could argue though that a group with no cases like NRL is probably too strict though. I suspect that NRL is in part due the optics, and yes rule breaking.


All these stats confirm is what is already know about viral behaviour.… and how hard it is to explain infectivity.

It’s not a 1:1 exercise.

It is well known that viral loads of Covid alone do not explain transmission (this is also the case with other diseases) i.e. a small number of people spread to a very very large number of people which pushes transmission.. hence, this leads to lots of cases and large numbers.. some infected people may transmit to no one.
Once transmission chains are mapped it may identify the superspreader but not based on the first single case.
Unfortunately — superspreaders don’t walk around with a sign on their head once infected.
Research (I have added a link to medical journal of Australia) aims to identify super spreader characteristics which adds another variable to understanding a very complex disease in a rapidly evolving mutating virus.

Hence we hear the refrains of ‘all these people infected but I dont know anyone ….why has the FA not transmitted to all of Qld?’…it’s a function of virus (virulence eg Delta more infective than earlier strains) and host (Superspreader/ability to mount immune response /comorbidity etc etc etc)…

acknowledging all the unknowns and (thanks to Donald Rumsfeld) unknown unknowns vaccination is critical….

I only add this as a way of explaining some of the complexities of Covid and thinking behind countermeasures.

Please Remember to look after each other be kind and this too shall pass…
 

lovetravellingoz

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By Bridget Judd, ABC News
30250099-c585-4818-a2f0-abcb05221bd4.jpg


SA: State records one new case linked to cluster

South Australia has recorded one new case of COVID-19 linked to other cases at a winery north-east of Adelaide.
The person was in quarantine and it brings the state’s total in the current outbreak to 16.
23,410 tests were completed yesterday, just shy of Thursday’s result.
 

lovetravellingoz

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Vic Presser

Foley:

Ten people are currently in hospital — three in ICU, one of whom is on ventilation. :(

10 cases of the 12 cases announced today were in isolation for all of their infectious period.

The 2 who were out infectious, were only so for a small amount of time.

Case breakdown linkages:
  • 5 to AAMI Park.
  • 3 to Ms Frankies
  • 2 to Burnley apartment complex (Even though seed case had been moved to HQ)
  • 1 to Bacchus Marsh Grammar
  • 1 to Young and Jacksons
22 thousand still in isolation.
 
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Pushka

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37 in ICU, 36 unvaccinated and 1 had one dose of AZ.

GET VACCINATED EVERYONE!
They just asked this question to Prof Spurrier. Still collating. Sigh. Just one new case and he was in Tom Court with his positive wife. Seems to be some discussion that he didn’t want to be with her but missed the start.
 

lovetravellingoz

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Vic Presser Sutton:

Case in Lacrosse Apartment building is the key focus today.
Case was at the building from 16th to 23rd July. So that is the infectious period.


It is a large apartment building

LaCrosse Building673 La Trobe Street Docklands VIC 3008

Pop up testing facility has been opened at the site.

The building is currently being assessed. ie As to what may portions may need to be Tier 1,2, or not at all. Initially it is all Tier 2

1627092990706.png
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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Still too many people moving about.
Stuff the liberties, it’s time for the Feds to come over the top and force people to stay home.
Under the system in Australia that is up to the NSW Gov, and not the Feds.

Though it is really mainly up to the community at large.
Message clearly isn’t getting through. Welding doors shut is a bit too extreme but get the ADF and NSW police to barricade up the trouble spots and start enforcing home visiting rules
jase05 - sounds like you are getting frustrated/despair. I just hope you are not caught up in the State v State spin - "ring of steel", "national emergency", etc etc.

I hope you realise that the impression NSW authorities have been giving is that its critical workers that are now getting it then spreading it to their households.

So NSW authorities are probably only in the mode of stopping each individual critical business (more specifically sets of critical workers exposed) as a worker gets infected, hoping to get in front of Delta. I suspect its no different to what Victorian authorities did last year, closing individual critical businesses as cases crop up.

The only practical option I can think is entire households of a positive case isolate (as well as the positive case isolate from rest of household or gets moved to separate accomodation) and say ADF people help with essential - like welfare and groceries. But also to add there has been no indication that households of positive cases have been going out on their critical work.

Unfortunately, my impression is that the epicentre has now moved.
 

RAM

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Until the image given out at the daily NSW curtailed briefings is one of not trying to massage the figures to soften the message - I fear nothing will change.

"Soften the message"?

In the first 10 months of briefings, especially if there was some HQ failure we would be told the number of mystery cases, close contacts & casual contacts as well as how long (on avg) it was taking the contact tracers to reach all close contacts.

Mystery cases as of today for this outbreak = 459.

Once December's 4 breaches (2 source never tracked down) came about the first to be dropped was mentioning 'Mystery cases'. Subsequently we are no longer told the number of close contacts nor casual contacts.

With the Ikea exposure the number of 2,000 close contacts was mentioned and then radio silence. 2,000 close contacts would suggest around 40,000 to 100,000 casual contacts to be contacted. With less than 280 contact tracers at that stage, safe to say they were then overwhelmed. yet the messaging at the briefings continues to be that our contact tracers are keeping up.

Does anybody believe that?

Even worse - the details on close contact & casual contact numbers seem to have disappeared from NSW Govt web sites. If I am missing something please reply with the link on the Govt's site.

Contrast this with how SA, Qld & Vic have been approaching it. No sugar coating, MCG - we have 2,000 contacts, AAMI Park - we have 20,000 potential contacts.

What approach makes people think, "This is serious, I am at risk."

Or in SA with people prepared (appalling that no planning for such a need) to queue for up to 14 hours to get a test.

Meanwhile in Sydney, the Three Stooges continue their "Don't look here, look over there!"

When Melbourne was dealing with the leak from the Adelaide Hotel & a suggestion of extra doses going to Victoria, Gladys on June 6th launched into a diatribe about not one vaccine destined for NSW would go to Victoria, its easy to lockdown to defeat the virus, but we take the hard approach and defeat it by contact tracing etc etc.

Yesterday, this is NSW, we're different, it's a national emergency (because we fiddled while Rome burned for ten days before going lockdown lite) - the rest of Australia should give us their vaccines. By vaccines that is Pfizer. NSW has declined to access over 650,000 AZ doses that have been allocated as available for delivery but not taken up by the NSW Govt.
_____________________________________

The Delta virus from this Sydney outbreak has leaked to NZ (luckily not spread), Qld now 4 times, SA in the midst of a lockdown, Vic with 2 separate leaks from Sydney (removalists & family member breaking domestic return home quarantine). Yet they should send NSW their small number of Pfizer doses (comparitive numbers) = Purely Political move to try & distract people in NSW from the main game = failure to curtail the original unsourced outbreak that infected the limo driver & is racing around.

Now today, Brad Hazzard puts on the 'near tears, trembling voice' about bushfires and helping each other - had me waiting to hear in the background "We still call Australia home." but once I realised given that Q cancelled all international flights on less than 24hrs notice on June 8, 2020 leaving over 150,000 Australians stranded - I realised my mistake.

Every question about "what further restrictions are you planning if the numbers do not decrease?" gets either ignored, dismissed as 'hyothetical and not worthy of entering into a discussion', or simply the journalist treated like a misbehaving toddler.

The community hears this (daily briefings are not in Top Ten rating programs in NSW, as is the Vic briefing in NSW) and is getting more & more frustrated especially when the obligatory photos of Bronte, Bondi, Centennial Park, Coogee get sent around by social media.

Again, for the 8th day asked about if the virus is being spread by being able to exercise with 1 person from another household - Brad Hazzard dresses down the journalist, never mind the 459 unlinked cases.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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This was such a calm and well run press conference. Even the press weren't yellowing over each other with their questions.
I guess it might indicate that the NSW Premier is currently a lightning rod, or the Saturday journalists are a bit more mellow. But equally might be a case that after NSW apparently got knocked back yesterday - some might be saying were to from here.
 

Scarlett

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There has been a lot of press about the Qlink hostie who worked for about a week with delta symptoms, but nothing about the huge wave of covid you'd expect her to have started. Qld goes on each day with zero cases. The two don't seem to marry up...
Significant exchange of cabin air with outside?
Hepa filters?
Diligence by the crew member?
Luck?
Swamp gas from a weather balloon was trapped in a thermal pocket and reflected the light from Venus?
 

lovetravellingoz

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I guess it might indicate that the NSW Premier is currently a lightning rod, or the Saturday journalists are a bit more mellow. But equally might be a case that after NSW apparently got knocked back yesterday - some might be saying were to from here.


Evidently some extra Pfizer Doses will be allocated to NSW from the Federal Reserve (ie doses held back, and not yet allocated to any state).

Health Minister Foley in Vic has stated that he supports this.

He also commented that all Pfizer doses already allocated to Victoria, are all already allocated to vaccinations in Victoria and are required for that purpose..

Sutton on being questioned, stated that in Victoria the focus on minimising transmission and controlling the outbreak is on control and restriction measures such as face masks etc, and that new vaccinations were more a medium to long term measure.
 
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jase05

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jase05 - sounds like you are getting frustrated/despair. I just hope you are not caught up in the State v State spin - "ring of steel", "national emergency", etc etc.

I hope you realise that the impression NSW authorities have been giving is that its critical workers that are now getting it then spreading it to their households.

So NSW authorities are probably only in the mode of stopping each individual critical business (more specifically sets of critical workers exposed) as a worker gets infected, hoping to get in front of Delta. I suspect its no different to what Victorian authorities did last year, closing individual critical businesses as cases crop up.

The only practical option I can think is entire households of a positive case isolate (as well as the positive case isolate from rest of household or gets moved to separate accomodation) and say ADF people help with essential - like welfare and groceries. But also to add there has been no indication that households of positive cases have been going out on their critical work.

Unfortunately, my impression is that the epicentre has now moved.
I’m frustrated because there still appears to be too many household gatherings and visiting friends/family.
 

jb747

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You're talking about someone who flew 6 flights over 2 days. During those flights she was required to wear a mask at all times. Passengers on the flight were required to wear masks the vast majority of the time.

I'm sure at this stage we don't also need to still understand that not everyone carries the same viral load.
I just found it interesting. Presumably she has a partner, or housemate. The period of the flights is a small part of the day, so presumably she's interacted with other staff, and just people in general. Alternatively, Qld testing isn't all that good.
 

Pushka

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I just found it interesting. Presumably she has a partner, or housemate. The period of the flights is a small part of the day, so presumably she's interacted with other staff, and just people in general. Alternatively, Qld testing isn't all that good.
If you don't test you don't find and for most the infection passes by until someone gets hit hard. An outbreak has been discovered twice now in SA not through random testing but through elderly person going to hospital ER for a cough then boom.
 

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