Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW cases since 17 June

Date	Local acquired	Overseas acquired	Isolating during infectious period	Partially isolating during infectious period	ICU	Ventilator	Death
17-Jun​	2​	1​			0​
18-Jun​	2​	0​			0​
19-Jun​	2​	4​			0​
20-Jun​	2​	3​			0​
21-Jun​	2​	5​			1​
22-Jun​	5​	0​			1​
23-Jun​	10​	1​			1​
24-Jun​	18​	1​			0​
25-Jun​	11​	1​			1​
26-Jun​	29​	0​	12 (41%)		1​
27-Jun​	30​	2​	11 (37%)	3 (10%)	1​
28-Jun​	18​	3​	6 (33%)	3 (17%)	2​
29-Jun​	19​	1​	7 (37%)	2 (11%)	1​
30-Jun​	22​	6​	11 (50%)	5 (23%)	1​
1-Jul​	24​	4​	9 (38%)	3 (13%)	2​	1​
2-Jul​	31​	1​	11 (35%)	3 (10%)	3​	0​
3-Jul​	35​	5​	23 (66%)	3 (9%)	5​	0​
4-Jul​	16​	0​	13 (81%)	1 (6%)	5​	0​
5-Jul​	35​	2​	24 (69%)	4 (11%)	4​	0​
6-Jul​	18​	0​	11 (61%)	5 (28%)	6​	2​
7-Jul​	27​	1​	13 (48%)	7 (26%)	7​	2​
8-Jul​	38​	1​	17 (45%)	9 (24%)	11​	3​
9-Jul​	44​	1​	10 (23%)	8 (18%)	10​	4​
10-Jul​	50​	2​	13 (26%)	11 (22%)	16​	5​
11-Jul​	77​	5​	32 (42%)	9 (12%)	15​	5​	1​
12-Jul​	112​	4​	48 (43%)	12 (11%)	18​	4​
13-Jul​	???
14-Jul​

And another four more days to see whether the updated restrictions and increased police presence works or not to significantly impact on the covid numbers, particularly the non-isolating while infectious.

I also wonder when or whether the NSW Government is willing to put a number, measure or a plan on getting out of lockdown. I guess a bit too early for a plan, its probably best to wait until number stabilise (evidence the restrictions are having a meaningful effect on numbers) - may need further restrictions and/or further increased police presence.

 

[jakeseven7]

The removalist truck has potential to be interesting, if it eventuates that one of the crew does not test positive. Three people in a truck together, also working together. Should be as close as you can get to a certainty that all three will be infected (suffered an incursion to their respiratory system?)

I selfishly hope it doesn’t prove ‘interesting’ in terms of much spread…. Because we are moving a lot of our operations to VIC and SA because of the NSW situation! Aaaghhh (Yes I’m being selfish!)

At least they were only in each state for a couple of days and VIC is swarming all over it like a fat kid on a smartie!

 

[dajop]

Victoria. Whittlesea. Hume. <shudders> <fingers crossed>.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

NSW cases since 17 June

Date	Local acquired	Overseas acquired	Isolating during infectious period	Partially isolating during infectious period	ICU	Ventilator	Death
17-Jun​	2​	1​			0​
18-Jun​	2​	0​			0​
19-Jun​	2​	4​			0​
20-Jun​	2​	3​			0​
21-Jun​	2​	5​			1​
22-Jun​	5​	0​			1​
23-Jun​	10​	1​			1​
24-Jun​	18​	1​			0​
25-Jun​	11​	1​			1​
26-Jun​	29​	0​	12 (41%)		1​
27-Jun​	30​	2​	11 (37%)	3 (10%)	1​
28-Jun​	18​	3​	6 (33%)	3 (17%)	2​
29-Jun​	19​	1​	7 (37%)	2 (11%)	1​
30-Jun​	22​	6​	11 (50%)	5 (23%)	1​
1-Jul​	24​	4​	9 (38%)	3 (13%)	2​	1​
2-Jul​	31​	1​	11 (35%)	3 (10%)	3​	0​
3-Jul​	35​	5​	23 (66%)	3 (9%)	5​	0​
4-Jul​	16​	0​	13 (81%)	1 (6%)	5​	0​
5-Jul​	35​	2​	24 (69%)	4 (11%)	4​	0​
6-Jul​	18​	0​	11 (61%)	5 (28%)	6​	2​
7-Jul​	27​	1​	13 (48%)	7 (26%)	7​	2​
8-Jul​	38​	1​	17 (45%)	9 (24%)	11​	3​
9-Jul​	44​	1​	10 (23%)	8 (18%)	10​	4​
10-Jul​	50​	2​	13 (26%)	11 (22%)	16​	5​
11-Jul​	77​	5​	32 (42%)	9 (12%)	15​	5​	1​
12-Jul​	112​	4​	48 (43%)	12 (11%)	18​	4​
13-Jul​	???
14-Jul​

Yes not a good set of numbers.

Comparing the larger outbreaks:

 

[lovetravellingoz]

And cases by postcode from dbRaeven. More postcodes affected, and spread is now also further out.

- New case count for postcodes include 60 older cases that previously had masked postcodes but now have a postcode assigned
- There are 4 cases without postcode information, and 7 cases with masked postcodes

 

[dajop]

Yes not a good set of numbers.

Comparing the larger outbreaks:

One attenuating factor, and maybe a reasons to be a little hopeful about Sydney even after looking at the charts, is the story behind them.

Victoria second wave may have been initially slow at taking off because the state was still moving out of the previous lockdown when the cases were seeded. But the health authorities (by their own admission) didn't recognise these cases as being a second wave, instead as the tail end of the first wave. This was a big mistake that led to lockdowns being eased further and then very slowly re-introduced until it was too late. At least Sydney the lockdown was introduced quicker than the Vic second wave lockdown was. But the wildcard is of course the Delta strain.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The removalist truck has potential to be interesting, if it eventuates that one of the crew does not test positive. Three people in a truck together, also working together. Should be as close as you can get to a certainty that all three will be infected (suffered an incursion to their respiratory system?)

One of the driver's colleagues has now tested positive. (Source Evening News)

 

[Lynda2475]

If you use the official site to look at postcodes, you can see the place names and also contrast with where the testing is taking place. Unfortunately testing rates aren't always highest where needed most.

Some of the best testing rates are in the postcodes where there are zero or only 1 active cases.

NSW COVID-19 cases, deaths and testing statistics

The latest weekly case numbers, testing figures totals and related COVID-19 statistics in NSW.

www.nsw.gov.au

The postcode of people tested is based on the address they reported at the time of the test.
Cases and tests carried out without a valid address are not shown.
Information on the total number of cases and tests carried out is displayed by selecting the ‘Total’ radio button.
Information on active cases** or tests carried out recently (i.e. in the last 14 days) is displayed by selecting the ‘Recent’ radio button.
** Active cases are defined as people who have tested positive for COVID-19, are in isolation and are being clinically monitored by NSW Health. A person will no longer be an active case when they are clinically released from isolation. This figure only shows active cases that acquired their infection locally, it does not include cases that are acquired overseas, interstate or that are under initial investigation.
***The heatmap excludes 189 cases in crew members who tested positive while on board a ship docked in NSW at the time of diagnosis.
When no date of symptom onset is available (it is either under investigation by public health staff or the person tested positive without showing symptoms), the date of the positive test is used. Infections are not always acquired in the place of residence as people often travel outside their area for many reasons (e.g. work, school and shopping).

 

[nutwood]

One attenuating factor, and maybe a reasons to be a little hopeful about Sydney even after looking at the charts, is the story behind them.

Victoria second wave may have been initially slow at taking off because the state was still moving out of the previous lockdown when the cases were seeded. But the health authorities (by their own admission) didn't recognise these cases as being a second wave, instead as the tail end of the first wave. This was a big mistake that led to lockdowns being eased further and then very slowly re-introduced until it was too late. At least Sydney the lockdown was introduced quicker than the Vic second wave lockdown was. But the wildcard is of course the Delta strain.

I'm not sure that the Delta strain is as big a factor as it's made out to be. Rate of infection will become a big issue if the virus gets a good foothold and exponential figures start to kick off. IMHO, at this level, weather conditions and population behaviour are the big factors.

 

[bcworld]

One of the driver's colleagues has now tested positive. (Source Evening News)

The Vic media release this evening has described the CT interviews as 'complex and challenging'. Seems possible that the version of events given by different members of the crew did not align.

With the freight permit there are of course strict rules on mask wearing, what they can do re getting food etc..

 

[Pushka]

The Vic media release this evening has described the CT interviews as 'complex and challenging'. Seems possible that the version of events given by different members of the crew did not align.

With the freight permit there are of course strict rules on mask wearing, what they can do re getting food etc..

Apparently they weren't wearing masks when moving the furniture into the SA home and were there for five hours.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I'm not sure that the Delta strain is as big a factor as it's made out to be. Rate of infection will become a big issue if the virus gets a good foothold and exponential figures start to kick off. IMHO, at this level, weather conditions and population behaviour are the big factors.

I think Delta is having an impact on total numbers - higher proportion within a household getting infected despite isolating away from the rest of the household.

The fleeting contact aspect of Delta is difficult to determine - there is not enough examples to say fleeting is the reason for non-isolating number in this Sydney outbreak under a lockdown is outpacing total cases under no lockdown in Sydney. Of course these numbers are also affected by the general compliance rate with the stay-at-home orders. There are also lots of other reasons that could look like fleeting contact (eg superspreader/high viral load).

The other complication is the varied time to become infectious - some being infectious immediately (within 24 hours) and some being infectious days later (usually after initially testing negative).

 

[jakeseven7]

The Vic media release this evening has described the CT interviews as 'complex and challenging'. Seems possible that the version of events given by different members of the crew did not align.

With the freight permit there are of course strict rules on mask wearing, what they can do re getting food etc..

Yup sounds like the NSW removalists have been a little naughty on a few levels… what a pity.

 

[bcworld]

Apparently they weren't wearing masks when moving the furniture into the SA home and were there for five hours.

If all they did in Melbourne was spend hours maskless at the homes that would be a good outcome!

 

[jakeseven7]

If all they did in Melbourne was spend hours maskless at the homes that would be a good outcome!

Somehow I doubt this is the truth…

 

[nutwood]

Apparently they weren't wearing masks when moving the furniture into the SA home and were there for five hours.

In fairness, five hours shifting furniture and wearing a mask? In the circumstances, the correct approach would have been to leave the guys to it and come back long after the virus had expired from contact with healthy SA air.

 

[MooTime]

In fairness, five hours shifting furniture and wearing a mask? In the circumstances, the correct approach would have been to leave the guys to it and come back long after the virus had expired from contact with healthy SA air.

True, would be considered strenuous exercise like a gym, no masks required.

Then again with OHS rules these days, 5kgs lifting limit 8 ppl to carry a single couch etc masks probably could've been worn.

 

[Pushka]

In fairness, five hours shifting furniture and wearing a mask? In the circumstances, the correct approach would have been to leave the guys to it and come back long after the virus had expired from contact with healthy SA air.

Agree. But maybe it's a hindsight thing. They may have presumed the crew was from Victoria and not Sydney. At times like this I do always think of medical personnel who have to wear masks for hours at a time though.

 

[dajop]

In fairness, five hours shifting furniture and wearing a mask? In the circumstances, the correct approach would have been to leave the guys to it and come back long after the virus had expired from contact with healthy SA air.

Lot of workers in all sorts of industries wearing all sorts of PPE. Some of it quite physical work too.

 

[Milboo]

I’m intrigued by the constant commentary that Sydney should do X because that’s what Melbourne did or that because people did X during Melbourne lockdown then the behaviour in Sydney will be the same.

The two cities are very different in many ways, including geographic spread, extent people travel for jobs (due to housing affordability), different lifestyles etc.

Our respective populations act and react differently. Yes, we can be informed by what has gone before but it doesn’t mean it’s the right approach for Sydney and it’s residents.