Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

jakeseven7

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Broadly agree, although with having only become entitled early April, and eligible for AZ then may not have received second dose as yet.

Even one shot will prevent anything serious.... anyway we will see.

I wonder where the Baulky Hills guy picked it up.... another HQ leak or will it be linked to the Bondi outbreak I wonder.
 
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drron

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Can I ask why it is necessary to fast track genomics on the 2 in the recent HQ case in Sydney?
They both tested positive and moved to a medi hotel.
This means the staff would have continued to be tested as usual and those on the same floor would be tested again before their discharge from HQ.Doing the genomics would not have changed that.
The only thing IMHO that could have been done differently is those released from the same floor could have been told to wear a mask until a negative test say 10-12 days after their release.But you didn't need genomic testing to do that.

With a community transmission it is urgent as you are wishing you can link it to a known case and have a better idea where to look and test as well as the known contacts.
 

lovetravellingoz

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Different situation and entirely consistent with my point. When its a community case (as that quote related to) processing those results should always be give top priority and in NSW they are.


Only 36 cases to be sequenced in total in that entire period. On average 2 cases in total per day Why would top priority even be a factor?

I could ask why you think several days for genomic testing for a community cases who travelled widely was ok,

You could, but as I have never stated that it is a an irrelevant question to ask.

Though sequencing does sometimes take more than a day. Quite possibly as the test has to be be rerun or verified etc. Most sequencing is performed within 1 to 2 days.

But let us explore your statement: " several days for genomic testing for a community cases who travelled widely was ok,"

  • PCR Test result comes in on 1st June (Case went and got tested on 31st May)
  • Genomic sequence came back late evening of 3rd.
  • The Delta result was announced in The Vic Presser on June 4th
  • So PCR Test to returned Genomic Sequence was 2 days
  • Several: more than two but not many.
  • So " several days for genomic testing for a community cases who travelled widely " is not what occurred. You have calculated the period incorrectly.
The other point is with camping family that the exact variant did not alter the immediate control measures taken by at most for more than a day.

Whereas the 3 cases matching in the HQ did alter the control measures taken by a substantial period, and the actions would have been done so earlier if known. ie The other travellers would not have been released from HQ at 14 days as there exposure period should have been extended.

So if anything the timelieness of the sequencing of the HQ cases was more critical.

But yes, the sooner the sequencing can be done the better in all cases.

but a case already in a medi hotel should be more of a concern?

Unless one has to assign a priority, it is should simply be a matter that you do need to do both. If there are resource issues then you prioritise. I simply do not believe that 2 cases per day, and especially when there were no community cases, would lead to any appreciable delay in performing genomic sequencing.


The 3 cases before they were were moved could have infected others. Transmission within HQ is a known possibility. Transmission from within HQ is to the community a known possibility.

The Vic Kappa Outbreak was started when SA Health moved an infected person to their higher graded facility but also moved someone he had infected to their normal HQ and that person then infected Wollert Man but late in his stay .

So it is entirely possible that the first 3 in the Blu hotel could have infected others during their stay there, but that those travellers like Wollert man only become positive after their stay.
 
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Lynda2475

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*Yawn* and where are all these community cases gnomically linked to this potential HQ breach? Oh wait there arent any.

We know yesterday's driver isn't genomically linked to the Radison Blu. We know the staff from Radison Blu arent infected as all have been tested multiple times since 5th June, as part of their shift testing. Last possible exposure date for those other travelers on the same floor was 5th June, meaning already 12 days since then, none tested positive to date. I bet there are no cases by 14 days mark either.
 

lovetravellingoz

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I missed this piece of news earlier today.

A nurse who contracted COVID-19 after working with coronavirus patients at Epping Private Hospital worked two shifts at the Northern Hospital while infectious and attended a vaccination clinic, potentially exposing dozens of other healthcare workers to the virus.
At a COVID-19 briefing on Thursday morning, Victoria’s COVID-19 response commander Jeroen Weimar said he was “exceptionally concerned and disappointed” the nurse had been allowed to work across hospitals while looking after COVID-positive patients and he had spoken to hospital executives.
“It should not have been allowed to happen,” Mr Weimar said. “It is disappointing, and I am very unhappy about that situation.”
He said the Health Department was working with the hospital teams “to ensure this never happens again.”
He said nine primary close contacts of the nurse at Epping Private had been identified and were currently in isolation awaiting test results. A further 25 staff have been tested, with 22 returning negative results so far.
The nurse completed two shifts at the Northern Hospital in Epping on June 11 and 12. As a result, 22 staff at the hospital have been identified as close contacts and are now completing 14 days of quarantine.
The nurse also attended the Northern Health’s vaccination clinic on June 14. Another 30 people there – five staff and 25 patients – have also been identified as close contacts of the nurse and will also complete 14 days isolation.

 

lovetravellingoz

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4th Case
So either a false positive, or possibly as they say low viral loads he could be a recovering/ed case. If so, he could be from a different outbreak, as a recovering case would be unlikely from the Transport Driver if the theory on his timeline is correct.

Or if he is an older case and as there is geographic overlap he could also pre-date the driver in that transmission chain. (Remember the Camperman who turned out to not be the first case in his cluster after all).


Hopefully enough virus to grow a live virus sample suitable for sequencing to provide more certainty.

1623931965286.png



With the Driver Outbreak
If the timeline was started with the Freighter flight crew it would seem that time in the community while infectious would not be too long with the first case, and then the known cases from him.

As such, I would expect this outbreak to not grow too large as most people that they find if positive possibly may not be infectious as yet. ie They will chop off the transmission chains. If infectious the number is as yet still likely to not be too large

The random factor will be if a super-spreader, or super-spreaders was already sired, that might bubble it along for a bit longer and especially if from a more fleeting contact. But the odds are against that in such a short timespan "in the wild". So only say 20% chance that may have happened.

ie should be more like the Delta Outbreak In Melbourne (or fewer cases as timeline is briefer) than the Kappa Outbreak which had time to grow.
 
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OATEK

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So much speculation on these posts - Is the Baulkham Hills man like camperman, did the driver break the rules etc. I have confidence that those charged with managing this in Sydney will get to the bottom of it all.

Hazzard said that there was no legal requirement for the driver to be vaccinated, just like there is no legal requirement for front line workers in other areas (aged care, hospitals) to be vaccinated. Surely this is the issue that needs more work right now..
 

SydneySwan

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Hazzard said that there was no legal requirement for the driver to be vaccinated, just like there is no legal requirement for front line workers in other areas (aged care, hospitals) to be vaccinated. Surely this is the issue that needs more work right now..
Agree. This is absolutely the critical issue.
 

jakeseven7

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Agree. This is absolutely the critical issue.

Does it really matter once the vulnerable and old are vaccinated which we are pretty close to anyway? By the time they work it all out we will all be done... I don’t get how all this really helps (big picture)

—-

How the potentially 'inexcusable' actions of a limo driver put Sydney on COVID-19 alert​


NSW Police are investigating whether a limousine driver at the centre of the Sydney eastern suburbs COVID-19 cluster had breached health orders.

 
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Pushka

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So much speculation on these posts - Is the Baulkham Hills man like camperman, did the driver break the rules etc. I have confidence that those charged with managing this in Sydney will get to the bottom of it all.

Hazzard said that there was no legal requirement for the driver to be vaccinated, just like there is no legal requirement for front line workers in other areas (aged care, hospitals) to be vaccinated. Surely this is the issue that needs more work right now..
For us mere mortals it's obvious that leakages will occur at the source of Covid infection which is people arriving, in any fashion, from overseas. So front line 'defence' which covers a multitude of services, need the strongest protection. PPE and then vaccination. Yet it seemed to come as a surprise to Hazzard last night that this was even a concept to enforce and simply said, "mandatory vaccination is something we should enforce". WT?

Also, the driver has only had one Covid test. The saliva one despite it being a daily requirement. So anyone else think it strangely weird that the first one he took, supposedly before symptoms, turned up as positive?

Does it really matter once the vulnerable and old are vaccinated which we are pretty close to anyway? By the time they work it all out we will all be done... I don’t get how all this really helps (big picture)

How the potentially 'inexcusable' actions of a limo driver put Sydney on COVID-19 alert​


Our CHO is requoted continuously as wanting ZERO. Until the powers of CHO's who are purely focussed on infection control no longer have the full power, then such logic and practical world concepts as Covid management with protection of the vulnerable, isn't going to happen.

The low viral load man from Sydney visited Canberra on Monday.
 
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justinbrett

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So sick of hearing this kind of thing from smug Sydneysiders. You have no appreciation of what Melburnians went through last year.
I think political support has grown stronger for every incumbent in every state and territory (including NZ).

The question is - as you rightly point out, Victoria has gone through far worse than anyone, why has political support grown stronger there? There are plenty of people on both sides of politics criticising the government for how it handled it, it certainly wasn't inevitable.

My comment, which Lynda was replying to, spoke of the constant criticism NSW gets from other states (including Victoria, and especially WA and QLD) for its handling of the virus. Objectively NSW has handled it well, but you wouldn't know it from the other states. It's almost certainly partisan political swipes, even though locally here support for ALP has plummeted.
 

bcworld

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And he travelled to Canberra to the Van Gogh exhibition - ACT Health having a minor panic attack :)
Sneaking in there on the very last day of the exhibition! Funnily enough we had originally planned to visit Canberra on the long weekend for that very purpose!
 

Lynda2475

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Gladys sounded quite calm on the radio this morning, wasn't letting anything slip about the 11am numbers but didn't seem worried at all about the hills guy.

She wasn't impressed that the driver was a sub contractor and appeared to not have been following process, I would expect his employer will also be getting a fine. She was reiterating she has had both her AZ doses and encourages other over 50s who have had a first dose to get their second as apparently there have been significant cancellations following ATAGI announcement yesterday.

She also lamented that extra Pfizer doses have been going to Victoria as NSW is still taking the bulk of arrivals and having enough Pfizer to vaccinate everyone quickly is crucial to reducing risk from arrivals.

I must admit I'm surprise air crew are using limo services, would have thought there would be a dedicated mini busses to and from the dedicated air crew hotels. Arrival numbers have to be known to ensure there are rooms available.
 
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Sneaking in there on the very last day of the exhibition! Funnily enough we had originally planned to visit Canberra on the long weekend for that very purpose!
We had planned to go on the Monday, but all the tickets vanished very quickly, so we didn’t bother. Fortunately he doesn’t seem to be very infectious….
 

Lynda2475

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My comment, which Lynda was replying to, spoke of the constant criticism NSW gets from other states (including Victoria, and especially WA and QLD) for its handling of the virus. Objectively NSW has handled it well, but you wouldn't know it from the other states. It's almost certainly partisan political swipes, even though locally here support for ALP has plummeted.

Exactly. It has nothing to do with smugness or not being able to appreciate the hardship people had suffered.

Interesting there was much comment on The Drum last night about people leaving Melbourne in droves to relocate interstate - SA and Queensland have been the biggest winners, followed by NSW.

We had planned to go on the Monday, but all the tickets vanished very quickly, so we didn’t bother
You didnt miss much, it was underwhelming. Not a patch on previous touring exhibits which have been hosted at the National Gallery.
 

dajop

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I must admit Im surprise air crew are using limo services, would have thought there would be a dedicated mini busses to and from the dedicated air crew hotels. Arrival numbers have to be known to ensure there are rooms available.

Presumably a mini bus was not considered necessary for a freighter crew of 3.
 

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