Is there anything that can be done to determine asymptomatic carriers? It seems impossible to determine. I'd also like to know, of those testing positive now, how many require any treatment other than isolation. Have the numbers of hospitalisations likewise jumped?
I don't think there has been any jump in the number of asymptomatic carriers. It is just that one is notable at present as they have led to a large family cluster.
Asymptomatic carriers will normally get picked up when close contacts of a known case are tested, or when there is testing of groups going on as in for example the Essendon Footballer (tested twice weekly).
So what you need is for those with symptoms to present for testing. My guess is that a number of people in this group who have had mild symptoms have failed to present for testing, this keeping the chain of transmission going.
The odds of having a continual line of just asymptomatic carriers passing it on continually is virtually impossible. There would mainly be symptomatic (admittedly in some cases these symptoms will be very mild) to not be tested. Given that we know that some people will break isolation when they are meant to self-isolating, it is reasonable to also assume that some in the cohort would deliberately avoid being tested. Remember that the Aspen Couple refused to the tested in Aspen as they did not want to interrupt their holiday!
Have the numbers of hospitalisations likewise jumped?
No. The number in hospital has been dropping and is the lowest it has been since the early days of the virus arriving.
Case numbers are still actually low in the scheme of things and as hospitalisations are not a large % of cases then you do not really expect to see a large jump. Morseo if the age of people involved are not say 70+ So you would need a lot of elderly grandparents to be involved, and they may not have been. Hopefully they have kept clear of the elderly.
Quite a number have been young, who normally do not become ill.
Plus there would be a lag in hospitalisations jumping if they do jump, as being do not normally become seriously ill immediately.
The 2 people in ICU may have become infected weeks or even months ago.
VIC HOSPITALISED
Cases in Hospital
| DATE | HOSP | ICU | VENT |
|---|
| Wed 1 Apr | 32 | 6 | |
| Thu 2 Apr | 34 | 6 | |
| Fri 3 Apr | 37 | 7 | |
| Sat 4 Apr | 42 | 10 | |
| Sun 5 Apr | 47 | 11 | |
| Mon 6 Apr | 45 | 11 | |
| Tue 7 Apr | 47 | 13 | |
| Wed 8 Apr | 45 | 12 | |
| Thu 9 Apr | 50 | 13 | |
| Fri 10 Apr | 43 | 13 | |
| Sat 11 Apr | 44 | 15 | |
| Sun 12 Apr | 44 | 16 | |
| Mon 13 Apr | 40 | 14 | |
| Tue 14 Apr | 40 | 15 | |
| Wed 15 Apr | 39 | 18 | 12 |
| Thu 16 Apr | 39 | 18 | 9 |
| Fri 17 Apr | 32 | 13 | 9 |
| Sat 18 Apr | 30 | 12 | 8 |
| Sun 19 Apr | 29 | 10 | 8 |
| Mon 20 Apr | 28 | 11 | 9 |
| Tue 21 Apr | 28 | 12 | 9 |
| Wed 22 Apr | 29 | 12 | 8 |
| Thu 23 Apr | 27 | 10 | 7 |
| Fri 24 Apr | 27 | 11 | 7 |
| Sat 25 Apr | 24 | 11 | 7 |
| Sun 26 Apr | 21 | 10 | 5 |
| Mon 27 Apr | 23 | 11 | 6 |
| Tue 28 Apr | 23 | 11 | 6 |
| Wed 29 Apr | 18 | 9 | 6 |
| Thu 30 Apr | 18 | 9 | 5 |
| Fri 1 May | 16 | 7 | 5 |
| Sat 2 May | 12 | 7 | 5 |
| Sun 3 May | 12 | 7 | 5 |
| Mon 4 May | 11 | 6 | 6 |
| Tue 5 May | 12 | 6 | 5 |
| Wed 6 May | 8 | 6 | 5 |
| Thu 7 May | 8 | 6 | 5 |
| Fri 8 May | 8 | 6 | 4 |
| Sat 9 May | 7 | 6 | 4 |
| Sun 10 May | 7 | 5 | 4 |
| Mon 11 May | 7 | 5 | 4 |
| Tue 12 May | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| Wed 13 May | 9 | 6 | 4 |
| Thu 14 May | 9 | 6 | 4 |
| Fri 15 May | 9 | 7 | 5 |
| Sat 16 May | 11 | 7 | 5 |
| Sun 17 May | 11 | 7 | 6 |
| Mon 18 May | 9 | 5 | 4 |
| Tue 19 May | 11 | 5 | 4 |
| Wed 20 May | 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Thu 21 May | 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Fri 22 May | 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Sat 23 May | 10 | 3 | 3 |
| Sun 24 May | 9 | 3 | 3 |
| Mon 25 May | 8 | 3 | 3 |
| Tue 26 May | 8 | 3 | 3 |
| Wed 27 May | 8 | 4 | 1 |
| Thu 28 May | 8 | 3 | 1 |
| Fri 29 May | 7 | 2 | 1 |
| Sat 30 May | 7 | 2 | 1 |
| Sun 31 May | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| Mon 1 Jun | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| Tue 2 Jun | 9 | 2 | 1 |
| Wed 3 Jun | 9 | 2 | 1 |
| Thu 4 Jun | 7 | 2 | 1 |
| Fri 5 Jun | 7 | 1 | 1 |
| Sat 6 Jun | 8 | 3 | 1 |
| Sun 7 Jun | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| Mon 8 Jun | 7 | 2 | 1 |
| Tue 9 Jun | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Wed 10 Jun | 9 | 2 | 1 |
| Thu 11 Jun | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| Fri 12 Jun | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Sat 13 Jun | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Sun 14 Jun | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| Mon 15 Jun | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| Tue 16 Jun | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| Wed 17 Jun | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Thu 18 Jun | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Fri 19 Jun | 5 | 2 | 2 |
| Sat 20 Jun | 6 | 3 | 2 |
- Overcoming the virus will mean a vaccine or efficient treatment has been found and used.
