Article: Why International Flights Are So Expensive Right Now

[AFF Editor]

Why International Flights Are So Expensive Right Now is an article written by AFF editorial staff:

Why International Flights Are So Expensive Right Now

If you've tried booking an international flight recently, you've probably noticed that flights to and from Australia are expensive right now. Award flight

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

You can leave a comment or discuss this topic below.

 

[JohnK]

Nice article.

It was a shock to me checking flights from BNE-BKK return for end of March 2023 until mid-April 2023.

I started checking a few months back in July and prices were about $900 return per person. Now they are $1200-$1300 return per person and the more popular days are $1500-$2000 return per person.

That's a huge hole in the budget.

 

[MollyJones]

With a little bit of flexibility around dates I just booked J on SQ MEL-FRA-SIN-MEL for March/April 2023 under $6k each.
Given a friend just paid $4k MEL-LHR-MEL for Y I’m more than happy.
As mentioned, the sale ends tomorrow so worth it if you can plan ahead.

 

[Warks]

That Singapore Air sale looks good, pity it ends tomorrow. SYD-CPH for just over $1200 rtn in May 2023 isn't bad. Looking to go to Iceland so that gets us most of the way. But outside of those deals I've been struggling to find anything decent. Hoping they come down as supply increases.

 

[Zanzara]

Isn't an issue that the aircraft operating a lot of these routes are now much smaller & capacity is therefore reduced. There's a limit to how many skinny Y seats you can cram in a la NZ, UA etc. Fuel thirsty, but larger aircraft for many airlines such as B747, A380, A340 etc are simply no longer available.

 

[baarg]

Worse are flights to South America with only Latam and Qantas flying to Argentina for example (the usual route, not via LA). Recently few to Argentina with Latam, economy right at the back, flight over was 4 planes and 5 airports, it was my child and I. Flights coats $6400, booked 2 and a half months in advance, having looked at prices for a long time. Recently, I booked to fly to Argentina again, with Qantas, for MARCH and again, a child and an adult, 6K. Lack of competition for this route seems to be the main cause of these insane prices.

 

[Skiski]

There is also a certain amount of what could be called price gouging or should we say a desire to maximize revenue on the part of airlines especially in January. On routes to USA and Japan QF is only offering top tier booking classes ie J W Y and if lucky a B class yet these flights are terribly under booked. From sources within QF for example a flight to Tokyo in early January only has 80 economy pax booked yet only Y Class available none of the lower fare classes are available. Result fares in excess of 5K. To LAX situation the same with flights with only 50 or 60 in Economy yet only fares at 4K available. Business even worse with fares up to $25K to LA but flights only at 15% capacity. Will be great for upgrades! The only problem is QF is now cancelling A380 and replacing them with 787 and these are still not full. There is a serious problem for QF in January flights to the USA.

 

[justin23]

Worse are flights to South America with only Latam and Qantas flying to Argentina for example (the usual route, not via LA). Recently few to Argentina with Latam, economy right at the back, flight over was 4 planes and 5 airports, it was my child and I. Flights coats $6400, booked 2 and a half months in advance, having looked at prices for a long time. Recently, I booked to fly to Argentina again, with Qantas, for MARCH and again, a child and an adult, 6K. Lack of competition for this route seems to be the main cause of these insane prices.

There has never really been competition on these flights though. I remember when $2500 was a standard economy ticket, Latam started to offer cheaper fares though which bought it down in price. Air NZ may start its service back up to BA, but thats all we'll get until Qantas flies direct to Brazil sometime in the future, but i bet it stops its SCL service then. There is not really anyone else to offer competition either.
That said I got CBR-SYD-SCL and EZE-SCL-SYD-CBR in J for about $4300, but that was way back in March to fly in a few weeks.

 

[exceladdict]

Had a look at JQ, admittedly around christmas, and at multiples of 4 or 5x what i "feel like I remember paying back in the day" the thought of a quick trip to DPS isn't as quick and easy as before.

 

[Richard1]

I think it‘s a combination of luck and timing. We booked Singapore Airlines business class seats in March for end July travel Melbourne/Frankfurt/Melbourne returning in September. The fare? $5630 each return. Different flights on the same day were much more and when I asked the agent later if I could change the dates they said it would cost around $4k more per ticket.

 

[jakeseven7]

There is also a certain amount of what could be called price gouging or should we say a desire to maximize revenue on the part of airlines especially in January. On routes to USA and Japan QF is only offering top tier booking classes ie J W Y and if lucky a B class yet these flights are terribly under booked. From sources within QF for example a flight to Tokyo in early January only has 80 economy pax booked yet only Y Class available none of the lower fare classes are available. Result fares in excess of 5K. To LAX situation the same with flights with only 50 or 60 in Economy yet only fares at 4K available. Business even worse with fares up to $25K to LA but flights only at 15% capacity. Will be great for upgrades! The only problem is QF is now cancelling A380 and replacing them with 787 and these are still not full. There is a serious problem for QF in January flights to the USA.

Its yield management at play, they are still waiting for 5 A380s (I think) to come back and waiting on a bunch of new 787s to be delivered, so less seats = more $ and given their international flights are 90% full, there is no need to discount...

 

[unclebobl]

I know the feeling, I was looking at buying return MEL-BKK for Christmas, but $1600-$2100 for seats is ridiculous, so I have gotten MEL-KUL and will catch a slow train to BKK and see if prices come down in Jan before we return, At least we get a 45 day entry so I may not even have to get a Visa extension.

 

[baarg]

There has never really been competition on these flights though. I remember when $2500 was a standard economy ticket, Latam started to offer cheaper fares though which bought it down in price. Air NZ may start its service back up to BA, but thats all we'll get until Qantas flies direct to Brazil sometime in the future, but i bet it stops its SCL service then. There is not really anyone else to offer competition either.
That said I got CBR-SYD-SCL and EZE-SCL-SYD-CBR in J for about $4300, but that was way back in March to fly in a few weeks.

Yes, Latam has always been expensive and it's true that there was never a lot of competition; you had Aerolíneas Argentinas, Qantas and Lan Chile, then only Latam and Qantas for a while (ai remember in 2014 fares being very expensive as well but not as much) and then you had Air Nz and their prices were really good. I remember paying 1700 per person consistently up until 2019. I think with this route in particular, they know most people travel to see family and it's more of a necessity. Air NZ has flights to LA from Akl for NZD1200 return so it can't be fuel. Qantas will be flying to SA from Syd and will stop in SCL. I got tickets for March like I said and they were a rip off in economy.

 

[Skiski]

Its yield management at play, they are still waiting for 5 A380s (I think) to come back and waiting on a bunch of new 787s to be delivered, so less seats = more $ and given their international flights are 90% full, there is no need to discount...

Yes I agree yield management at work but it is not having the desired effect. If flights in January are not full something is not working. People are obviously either not paying the ridiculous amounts being asked and not travelling or booking alternatives such as All Nippon Cathay and Singapore. If you save 5K by travelling 50% further in my opinion it's a good investment. The next problem is QF are starting to cancel flights and move people to days either side or the later QF 17. This messes people's travel plans but they do not care. If you are booked in First Class downgrade to Business - so sorry.

 

[randompunter]

There has never really been competition on these flights though. I remember when $2500 was a standard economy ticket, Latam started to offer cheaper fares though which bought it down in price. Air NZ may start its service back up to BA, but thats all we'll get until Qantas flies direct to Brazil sometime in the future, but i bet it stops its SCL service then. There is not really anyone else to offer competition either.
That said I got CBR-SYD-SCL and EZE-SCL-SYD-CBR in J for about $4300, but that was way back in March to fly in a few weeks.

True, I remember being excited when I found a sale price in 2009 for ~$1400 on QF (but booked via LAN). I think the price was typically >$2k back then. For some reason I recall the QF service in Y was outstanding, possibly because we were served steak. Also direct to EZE and not SCL. Good times!

 

[justin23]

Also direct to EZE and not SCL. Good times!

Yes i flew that flight in 2010 and it was pretty good. Since then its mostly been a combo of QF/LA codeshare via SCL. Pretty certain QF has plans for Rio or Sao Paulo. After they've covered the direct London and NY flights.
Can't see any South american carriers flying to Australia any time soon, no real point either for someone like Fiji Airlines either. Surprised there isn't a flight from French Guiana to Tahiti (Not sure if LATAM still has the once a week flight from Tahiti to Easter island either) though I remember Austral had a flight from Reunion to Sydney to New Caledonia, but it didn't last long. The French do like to link there colonies up.

 

[randompunter]

Yes i flew that flight in 2010 and it was pretty good. Since then its mostly been a combo of QF/LA codeshare via SCL. Pretty certain QF has plans for Rio or Sao Paulo. After they've covered the direct London and NY flights.
Can't see any South american carriers flying to Australia any time soon, no real point either for someone like Fiji Airlines either. Surprised there isn't a flight from French Guiana to Tahiti (Not sure if LATAM still has the once a week flight from Tahiti to Easter island either) though I remember Austral had a flight from Reunion to Sydney to New Caledonia, but it didn't last long. The French do like to link there colonies up.

Ooh Tahiti - French Guiana would be an interesting route I'd be up for. I did do AKL-PPT-IPC-SCL a while back and that was a great experience. IPC - SCL also avoided the Chilean reciprocity tax being a domestic flight and it wasn't collected at IPC

 

[jakeseven7]

Yes I agree yield management at work but it is not having the desired effect. If flights in January are not full something is not working. People are obviously either not paying the ridiculous amounts being asked and not travelling or booking alternatives such as All Nippon Cathay and Singapore. If you save 5K by travelling 50% further in my opinion it's a good investment. The next problem is QF are starting to cancel flights and move people to days either side or the later QF 17. This messes people's travel plans but they do not care. If you are booked in First Class downgrade to Business - so sorry.

It will fill up, always does. They know their game.

 

[docjames]

Alan Joyce quoted at World Aviation Festival in Amsterdam (details posted just now from Seth Miller via twitter handle @WandrMe):

“We’re very cautious about adding capacity back” - is back to domestic 100% of pre-covid ops levels (I assume this means either capacity or pax numbers??), but will stay there until confident there isn’t another disruption spike.

Also stating that international capacity to/from Aus is at 60% of pre-covid from competitors, but QF back to 75%.

Also that QF will keep three long haul spares forChristmas season to reduce operations risk.

Also quoted ‘Air Tavel is at the top of people’s priority list” for spending and likely last thing to get cut (in relation to will airfares remain high).

Also re: Sustainable Aviation Fuel - that Aust has so much stock its exporting, believes new Aus Gov will deliver growth in that segment

 

[Franky]

Alan Joyce quoted at World Aviation Festival in Amsterdam (details posted just now from Seth Miller via twitter handle @WandrMe):

“We’re very cautious about adding capacity back” - is back to domestic 100% of pre-covid ops levels (I assume this means either capacity or pax numbers??), but will stay there until confident there isn’t another disruption spike.

Also stating that international capacity to/from Aus is at 60% of pre-covid from competitors, but QF back to 75%.

Also that QF will keep three long haul spares forChristmas season to reduce operations risk.

Also quoted ‘Air Tavel is at the top of people’s priority list” for spending and likely last thing to get cut (in relation to will airfares remain high).

Also re: Sustainable Aviation Fuel - that Aust has so much stock its exporting, believes new Aus Gov will deliver growth in that segment

Re your last para - members of the new Government are certainly clocking up their share of the growth...