Err. You are still to demonstrate (with any reference whatsoever) that the new HND flight MUST commence operation on 29 March 2020 and not a single day later. Until you can provide a credible reference clearly stating that is this is the case, it is not the case no matter how much your bias wants it to be. I am happy to be corrected once a credible reference has been provided (which should be available 'everywhere').
Existing operators will obviously start on 29 March 2020 as they have all necessary approvals already and they want to make $$$$ as soon as possible. VA could as well if the necessary approvals are received in time.
You would think VA know what the requirements for the new HND service actually are and believe they can meet them.
From a common sense point of view, why would a one or two month delay be an issue for a service that could operate for ten to twenty years into the future.
So to repeat, awarding both slots to QF will be similar to not awarding one slot to anyone at all....
Again, VA has no rights currently to fly to Japan. They need to get Japanese regulatory approvals, which takes at least 8 months, before they can do so.
They can not sit on a HND slot and not use it waiting for those approvals.
The slots are meant to be used from 29 March.
As VA will not have time to get those approvals prior to the time the flights are meant to be in place, they should not be awarded a slot.
There is nothing preventing VA, once they have Japanese approvals, from opening any route to any international airport in Japan, other then HND.
More over, there is nothing requiring IASC give permissions for 5 years. They can give Qantas a day slot for approx 5 years, timed to match with the expiry of their current night slot, then give Qantas the 2nd day slot for 1 or 2 years.
This then allows the use of the slot, and the benefits its use brings, and gives VA a chance to get their paperwork for Japan in order, before then contesting the slot in a year.
If VA makes no move to complete the required paperwork to permit flying to Japan, then IASC will know that they aren't truely interested in the route and can then extend the QF permission. If VA completes the paperwork, or even gets a NRT or KIX flight started, then they would be in a better position to contest getting a HND slot.