AFF Point Valuations

[SAB]

Always redeem for First Class.

 

[aikman]

I appreciate the effort and I like the idea of using a basket but I'm not sure the contents of the basket is fair. Gift cards would have been removed in the final results even though it is the most accessible and easiest to redeem reward which I'm sure a lot of people use their points for.

Also the basket has 7 Y rewards and 5 J rewards. I'm pretty confident actual availability is not on a ratio of 7:5. So the end result is biased towards J rewards.

 

[kpc]

Another point I thought off....KrisFlyer gets marked down because of the 3 year hard expiry. If you are redeeming regularly or only TF into KF account when you are about to book an award, the 3 year expiry is not an issue. Also if you are PPS, there is no expiry of miles!

In terms of KrisFlyer availability, whilst saver premium awards are cheaper, premium award availability is almost always avaiable as advantage awards!

There is no way Qf points are worth more than KF!....I accept it is easier to earn Qf than KF miles in Australia.

Another reason Va points should be worth a lot more than Qf points is the ability to TF Va to KF miles albeit at 1.55 to1.

 

[Noah Count]

Thank you for your work. This is a very useful reference document.
It would be good to also release an estimate of the worth, for airline miles manipulators, of each Amex MR point in Ascent/Ascent Plus, and Citi Prestige rewards, etc.

I have read lots of your posts, I would suggest you just book something and stop asking questions as the flight will be gone.

Another point I thought off....KrisFlyer gets marked down because of the 3 year hard expiry. If you are redeeming regularly or only TF into KF account when you are about to book an award, the 3 year expiry is not an issue. Also if you are PPS, there is no expiry of miles!

In terms of KrisFlyer availability, whilst saver premium awards are cheaper, premium award availability is almost always avaiable as advantage awards!
There is no way Qf points are worth more than KF!....I accept it is easier to earn Qf than KF miles in Australia.

Another reason Va points should be worth a lot more than Qf points is the ability to TF Va to KF miles albeit at 1.55 to1.

My biggest grip with SQ transfers is the recent 3:1 IME SQ rewards were some of the best out there.

 

[burmans]

I always like these point valuations but I do think this suffers from the same problems many do. There seem to be many posting they don’t agree with the model but not saying why. So thought I’d not where I disagree and why.

1. The primary problem I have is the conflation of cost and value. Value is what I’m prepared to pay, cost is what they want to charge. If Qantas wanted to charge 10 times what SQ charges only a fool would say the the QF flight offers 10 times the value.
2. While I agree that some points are harder to earn that doesn’t affect their value, in fact classical economics would suggest the opposite. I may find it more difficult to get SQ points but when I do I value them more not less.
3. Once upon a time I had plenty of SQ points but due to the aforementioned difficulty in getting them a 3 year expiry (which is really 4 if you are smart), is really not a problem.

 

[Bell21]

I agree with your only rating of Very Good for "Redemption Experience" with Aeroplan. IMHO their call centre experience has been outstanding. Useful to check Montreal time with one's own call time from Aus. beforehand to assist mitigate any length of time on hold. Overall, really appreciate the extensive work undertaken, Matt G., Wilson M., and method shared.

Next iteration - perhaps consider the value implications for bonus points/discount pricing on the key programmes? Since VR, AC and QR each now offer bonus/discount point purchase options?
Renewed thanks for sharing this thoughtful work.

I like the methodological approach to try to establish points value and thought the upper and lower bands for points value was a unique approach. I liked the weightings table as it tends to reflect my recent experience that Aeroplan is a seriously good points program, and Virgin Atlantic is deceptively good, esp given its access to skyteam, even if there are some challenges with the program.

 

[Noah Count]

I most likely have a different value on points, being if I have the required amount of points to get me from point A-B (C,D) etc who cares. Dropping $1200 in taxes and carrier fees each way to EU or the UK in EK F is still a better option and revenue Y. Sure there are cheaper options but it all come down to what you are willing to accept and pay for.

 

[Kremmen]

I'd like to see gift cards removed altogether. They are always going to be terrible value and nobody in their right mind redeems that way. If they are the constant worst outlier, they are just preventing the real lowest redemption option from being culled.

An issue that was mentioned is that one airline might charge unrealistically more than another, which warps "value" calculations. It can get subjective, but I think it's better to value against cash prices on the route rather than the particular carrier. When I track what my own points redemptions have been worth, I value them by what the lowest similar (or better) airline costs on that route. e.g. If I were to redeem on Austrian for BKK-LHR in business when they are charging $4700 and EVA is charging $3100, I would count it as being worth $3100. (If there was a cheaper option with a 20 hour layover and/or on an LCC, I would ignore it, as it's not an acceptable substitute.)

 

[trippin_the_rift]

I'd like to see gift cards removed altogether. They are always going to be terrible value and nobody in their right mind redeems that way. If they are the constant worst outlier, they are just preventing the real lowest redemption option from being culled.

An issue that was mentioned is that one airline might charge unrealistically more than another, which warps "value" calculations. It can get subjective, but I think it's better to value against cash prices on the route rather than the particular carrier. When I track what my own points redemptions have been worth, I value them by what the lowest similar (or better) airline costs on that route. e.g. If I were to redeem on Austrian for BKK-LHR in business when they are charging $4700 and EVA is charging $3100, I would count it as being worth $3100. (If there was a cheaper option with a 20 hour layover and/or on an LCC, I would ignore it, as it's not an acceptable substitute.)

I like the logic.
Cash ticket would also earn miles, so I'd net those out, along with taxes that are included in cash fares vs awards.

I'm reminded that the overwhelming vast majority of folks redeeming for biz/first, would never pay cash for that cabin.
So the 'value' is distorted on both the earn and burn side.

And of course, remember kids - points have ZERO value until you redeem them, because, getting a premium redemption is half the battle.

 

[CaptJCool]

Great job !

Gotta start somewhere so this is brilliant
Snapshot vs progress over time is a bit like balance sheet to profit & loss statement
Similarly earn maybe fast churn or slow and steady over many years and that with ever increasing member numbers has really crunched availability seeing supply remains limited and patchy (affordable housing anyone ?)


Of course not perfect and we can all point to an outlier
Eg In my recent trip cross country rev fare ON THE DATE OF BOOKING was $1,434 while points spend was 20,300 plus co-payment so I spent the points …just on the raw figures 7 cents a point
VERSUS $159 or 8,000 (2 cents)
Or $189 or 12,000 (1.5 cents)
Or $379 or 18,000 (2 cents)

As per past articles
Ideally the F J international fares were the most guaranteed if available with a solid 7-8 cents per point but that had been the point they’re difficult to get with ever growing demand
This similarly to upgrades where there’s no guarantee but when they happen great value (like one of my CBR-Perth jaunts a few years ago. The one way J airfare was horribly high ($3,700 plus) so when the upgrade came through that was Golden

So some of this is situational and context. On another day, that airfare might be $800 …

I do like the CPI approach as this helps to reduce the volatility and by having an easy reference average value provides guidance to all of us so
If you are able to extract something better than the specific airlines average then go for it !

 

[ozflier]

Matt, thank you very much for all the work you have done to come up with this scoring .

 

[RooFlyer]

There is no way Qf points are worth more than KF!...

Totally agree. I can't see the three year hard expiry for SQ being a material consideration

I most likely have a different value on points, being if I have the required amount of points to get me from point A-B (C,D) etc who cares. Dropping $1200 in taxes and carrier fees each way to EU or the UK in EK F is still a better option and revenue Y. Sure there are cheaper options but it all come down to what you are willing to accept and pay for.

Well, yes, but this was a comparative exercise as well as valuation. Given a certain consistent methodology, what are the relative values of various FF schemes?
If you have the 'required points' in A, and need to pay $1,200 in cash as well, how does that compare with B, where you need the same points, but only need to pay $100 cash? If you are opting for A, you should change to B unless wasting money is not a problem.

Which is why I gave up on Etihad or Emirates many years ago (and not redeemed QFF points on EK either) and do earn/buy most of the others at the higher end of value.

 

[BenP]

For the most part I like the article and really appreciate both the effort and the reasonings behind your rankings.
But the reason why I don't really 'value' the point valuations from someone else and it is alluded in the article "the value of a point really depends on how you use it" and that is they don't factor in the individual circumstance. For example flying in a premium cabin is considered great value and gift vouchers generally poor but if I have an urgent need to buy something (and don't have the $) and the gift voucher allows me to do that to me that gives a lot more value than some future flight that may/may not happen

 

[flyguy77]

While I agree that some points are harder to earn that doesn’t affect their value, in fact classical economics would suggest the opposite.

100% agree.

Not to throw shade on the work behind it as AFF displays the least bias — but I’ll also add that it’s hard to fully trust any points valuation when it’s coming from those who work in the industry and rely on promoting points, referrals, or affiliate deals for income.

There’s always going to be bias — and the numbers will almost always be inflated.

Case in point…

Pay.com.au uses a made-up 3.5c per point valuation in their reward calculator — purely for marketing, to make it seem like people are getting far more value than they actually are.

That’s nearly double what their own partner sites like AFF and Point Hacks use… which is, well, interesting.

 

[RooFlyer]

@flyguy77 perhaps you can point out the specific points of bias in the AFF points valuation.

 

[equus]

I think some of the caveats in the article need to be taken more on board by the readers. The value of such an analysis is really on looking at the relative value of each scheme in comparison, and is using a "valuation" in cents per point to do it.

As they say "value is in the eye of the beholder" and thus the absolute cents is not really relevant. With everybody having a different threshold of what they are willing to put up with in terms of delay, comfort timing, and cash outlay, nobody is going to agree precisely. The point that valuing points based on the cost of premium cabin fares for people who would never pay that amount is misleading is very true (and thus means the absolute value is artificially inflated), but that same person would have the aversion to paying that amount across all the schemes - so the relative comparison still has validity.

 

[CaptJCool]

I think some of the caveats in the article need to be taken more on board by the readers. The value of such an analysis is really on looking at the relative value of each scheme in comparison, and is using a "valuation" in cents per point

And that’s why I’m gonna use it as guidance
So if QF/VA is 4 cents
And the highest V Atlantic 7+ points

And I extract a QF Rewards flight that’s around 7-8 cents then I’m happy
Imagine finding a QF flight at 10 cents plus per $. That would be the golden goose !

 

[Human]

Imagine finding a QF flight at 10 cents plus per $. That would be the golden goose !

Once -- just once -- I did find such a flight using Qantas points (though not a QF flight).

Earlier this year I flew JAL long-haul First Class from JFK to HND. It cost me 149,000 Qantas points plus about $300 in carrier charges.

After I booked the flight, out of interest, I looked up the cash price for the same flight -- it was over A$17,000!

That works out at over 11c per Qantas point: by far the best redemption I've ever made in terms of value-per-point.

 

[equus]

After I booked the flight, out of interest, I looked up the cash price for the same flight -- it was over A$17,000!

But what was the price before you booked? With the dynamic pricing and very small cabins, if an airline is willing to offer an award seat they may also be offering a cheaper fare bucket revenue seat that disappears as soon as the reward is redeemed instead. It may well have been the the cash price for a revenue seat before the award redemption was "only" $10,000 or the like.

 

[Human]

But what was the price before you booked? With the dynamic pricing and very small cabins, if an airline is willing to offer an award seat they may also be offering a cheaper fare bucket revenue seat that disappears as soon as the reward is redeemed instead. It may well have been the the cash price for a revenue seat before the award redemption was "only" $10,000 or the like.

Fair point. Needless to say I was thrilled with the redemption regardless of whether the cash price was $10,000 or $17,000!