AFF Member Stock Discussion

[SYD]

current free float ~5%
Aug 11 wave1 unlock +20% - total ~25%
Aug 21 wave2 unlock +7% - total ~32%

According to Market Index, it’s a bit more complicated but certainly a lot of potential sellers coming online over the next 12 mths plus.

 

[cove]

We decided to buy two beaten down stocks so that was Propel Funeral PFP and then ANG who said orders have been deferred into next year.
Always risky to buy what might be a falling knife but I was trying to be a bottom dweller.

 

[Dr Ralph]

Made a quick 7% on JDO this morning. Happy to watch to see if it goes back down.

 

[cove]

Took a placement in a copper stock thru Argonaut yesterday. That was KGL.

 

[cove]

Tonight Acumentis issued a statement on a new group wanting to change the management. That is ACU. We are ACU shareholders. This is a business doing valuations.
I went to a Commsec function in Perth and I listened intently to the Argonaut commodity research manager. He said the copper needed for data centres won’t be available based on how long it takes to get copper mines up to speed.

 

[Dave G]

KGL Seems interesting - looks like the cap raise came a fair discount and hasnt been received well by the existing shareholders. Sounds like to good time to get in

 

[cove]

Yes the placement thing to sophisticated investors can really hurt existing shareholders if there is no share purchase plan offered to get them up to $30,000 of shares (subject to possible scale back). Now that doesn’t really help if you are a bigger shareholder and your broker is unable to secure you an offer.
With KGL we upped our bid when I heard the deal was “covered” and we received 90% of that bid.
Now this morning the buyer and sellers of Acumentis have mostly withdrawn. It should get interesting over the next month.
I bailed maybe temporarily from Atlas Arteria as the company buying more got over the 50% holding. I need to wait and see what the new controlling shareholder says after July 7th.

 

[cove]

One of our brokers Euroz Hartleys has received a takeover offer from a Canadian Bank. EZL shares are up on that news.
End of the financial year so I did my BAS workings this evening. We have to work out a strategy for our family trust by the end of next financial year.

 

[prozac]

Bought some more WHC on today's dip.
COH still moving up nicely.

 

[cove]

Many smallish businesses are failing especially in Victoria.
Have an Ophir meeting this month. That is always interesting.
No one has been talking about the billions of dollars leaving Australia after that awful Federal budget.
Had a call from the broker who put us into QPM. They have issues.
BWN has turned it seems.

 

[cove]

Had a share get taken over and the funds went into ASIC unclaimed money. Spent some time getting a statutory declaration prepared to get that money.

 

[Dr Ralph]

Had a share get taken over and the funds went into ASIC unclaimed money. Spent some time getting a statutory declaration prepared to get that money.

Had this happen several times as well. Definitely didn't miss a notification.

 

[cove]

In the last few weeks we sold out of Atlas Arteria which had been an 8% earner when the company had a takeover bidder go past 50%.
We are taking time to find replacements.
Took up some 9% plus shortish term mortgages with Leftfield Capital.

 

[Brissy1]

If the major banks say No to a property developer, they go to Judo, if Judo says No they go to Leftfield Capital? Don't know whether that's the model but, risk/reward.
I'd be concerned whether Leftfield have skin in the loan, or just get their margin without capital risk such that "closing the deal" is their prime motive.
Or worse a related party transaction which even if illegal or undisclosed, doesn't get the money back.
I was burnt once (50y ago, never forgot).
But sure I understand the pa maths starting point of an extra 4% if probability of default < 1/25 (<1/100 for 3month loan), accepting some capital losses.