A380 Production Sadness

[Berlin]

Surely slot limitations at a growing number of airports must lead to a trend to bigger aircraft. Maybe the A380 is above the optimum size even considering this.

I’m not willing to give up on this beautiful aircraft either yet. It might have just come a few years too early and I bet they’ll have another look at renewing the program when the time comes. Never even got the chance for a stretched version and newer engines. Just sad.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Surely slot limitations at a growing number of airports must lead to a trend to bigger aircraft. Maybe the A380 is above the optimum size even considering this.

That was the argument 15 years ago but it doesn't seem to have held to be true. With the wake spacing required for the 380 the benefit really isn't as big as one would think

 

[JohnPhelan]

I’m not willing to give up on this beautiful aircraft either yet. It might have just come a few years too early and I bet they’ll have another look at renewing the program when the time comes. Never even got the chance for a stretched version and newer engines. Just sad.

The A380 may have many redeeming features, but "beautiful" it is most certainly not!

 

[odysseus]

The A380 may have many redeeming features, but "beautiful" it is most certainly not!

In the eye of the beholder.

I love watching them flying, especially land. The 747 otoh was just meh.

 

[jase05]

In the eye of the beholder.

I love watching them flying, especially land. The 747 otoh was just meh.

I’m with you.
I think they are a magnificent aircraft and will be sad to see them go.

 

[33kft]

Surely if the order numbers have dropped as significantly as they have for the A380, it would mean a need to retool and probably retire or re-assign facilities, with the ultimate outcome being that they wouldn't be in a position to suddenly ramp up production again even if the economics started to change in favour of the larger jets again?

I guess the point I am making is that they needed it to be successful now, and even with the romantic notions some of us might have of the A380 returning to prominence in whichever form in the future, it's very unlikely that Airbus can just "bring back" the people, facilities, production line and vendor relationships that would be lost in the interim, at least in any cost-effective way.

 

[codash1099]

Surely if the order numbers have dropped as significantly as they have for the A380, it would mean a need to retool and probably retire or re-assign facilities, with the ultimate outcome being that they wouldn't be in a position to suddenly ramp up production again even if the economics started to change in favour of the larger jets again?

I guess the point I am making is that they needed it to be successful now, and even with the romantic notions some of us might have of the A380 returning to prominence in whichever form in the future, it's very unlikely that Airbus can just "bring back" the people, facilities, production line and vendor relationships that would be lost in the interim, at least in any cost-effective way.

Even if the latest EK order doesn’t proceed, there are still other orders in the system, so a production stop won’t happen immediately.

 

[moa999]

Even if the latest EK order doesn’t proceed, there are still other orders in the system, so a production stop won’t happen immediately.

The only other realistic order in the pipeline is
ANA - 3 aircraft - which should all be delivered in 2019.

Also effectively cancelled are
Air Accord 3
Amadeo 20 (a leasing company)

Emirates 53 (including the 36 that still have an engine out) are the only realistic ones left.

I wouldn't be surprised if an agreement is cut to shrink the EK number a bit for an A350 order and the line closes in 2022/23 (obviously the supply chain works a fair way in advance)

 

[jb747]

I would expect that most of the orders in the book could easily disappear...either turned into smoke, or other AB types. Now that it’s been shown to have limited second hand value, why would any leasing company, or airline, want to spend money on it?

The theory about slot limitations is true to a degree, but it isn’t helped by 380 sized aircraft. I attended an ATC briefing in London a few years ago, where their contention was that the 380 reduced the capacity of the airport because of spacing requirements for arrival and departure. Slot issues are alleviated by increasing the average size of aircraft, not by pushing the occasional monster into the mix.

There will never be a market for a cargo version. Airbus tried to develop one in the early days, but discontinued it. Nor will a second hand cargo market develop.

It’s a great aircraft, and I enjoyed flying it, but it is developed for a flawed model of the way the airlines would develop routes. There was a lot of pi***ing contest in it too.

 

[Must...Fly!]

An expensive exercise but it put the Airbus name out there in a way no marketing campaign ever could.

 

[Flying Fox]

An expensive exercise but it put the Airbus name out there in a way no marketing campaign ever could.

True. Does this mean that all development and R&D costs can now be shifted to the Marketing Dept?

 

[JohnK]

Yeah I don't think that surprises anyone. It doesn't have the range to do SYD-LHR which is where QF wants to go.

Yippee! 17-18 hours non-stop flight to save an hour or 2 of travel. Where do I sign up?

 

[rock86]

True. Does this mean that all development and R&D costs can now be shifted to the Marketing Dept?

Nah, all the R&D was incurred by AB's 'head-office' entity in Ireland. They now charge AB France an astronomical - sorry, 'market' - fee to use the IP

 

[Berlin]

Yippee! 17-18 hours non-stop flight to save an hour or 2 of travel. Where do I sign up?

Totally agree. Give me an A380 with a short (but relaxing) stop at SIN or DXB or DOH any day!

 

[jase05]

Totally agree. Give me an A380 with a short (but relaxing) stop at SIN or DXB or DOH any day!

Amen. I love having a nice shower and small bite to eat. Oh well there are plenty of airlines out there to choose from I suppose.

 

[JohnK]

Can you clarify what you mean ?

It will all be about economics.

I would have thought an A380 makes more sense on routes such as SYD-SIN/HKG or MEL-SIN where there are say 2 x A330 flights taking off close together.

And I'd also look at using them on domestic peak demand services such as SYD-MEL or SYD-BNE where there are 3 x 737 flights scheduled within 30 minutes with 36 business seats compared to the possibility of having more business deats or premium seats available on A380. Isn't this what happens in Japan? I know it's a bigger market but SYD-MEL is also quite a busy route.

 

[straitman]

I would have thought an A380 makes more sense on routes such as SYD-SIN/HKG or MEL-SIN where there are say 2 x A330 flights taking off close together.

And I'd also look at using them on domestic peak demand services such as SYD-MEL or SYD-BNE where there are 3 x 737 flights scheduled within 30 minutes with 36 business seats compared to the possibility of having more business deats or premium seats available on A380. Isn't this what happens in Japan? I know it's a bigger market but SYD-MEL is also quite a busy route.

JohnK,
As I said the answer will come down to pure economics. ie cost per passenger seat mile. If an option is dearer than another it will quickly fall by the wayside.
The real revenue is in economy seats unfortunately and so that’s what drives it.
jb747 has explained why using them domestically as you suggest is impractical.

 

[zenyattamondatta]

I'd also look at using them on domestic peak demand services such as SYD-MEL or SYD-BNE where there are 3 x 737 flights scheduled within 30 minutes with 36 business seats compared to the possibility of having more business deats or premium seats available on A380. Isn't this what happens in Japan?

No.

 

[flyer89]

Airbus to give update on A380 shutdown plans: sources | Reuters

Board meets this evening Australian time.

 

[Forg]

The real revenue is in economy seats unfortunately and so that’s what drives it.

Is that true? For it to be correct, given that J costs about 4xY, they’d need to carry >4 Y passengers in the space they carry one J? But they don’t, do they?