A (possibly crazy) idea for the restart.

[MollyJones]

So I’ve been thinking that Australia and New Zealand seem to be doing an excellent job at getting covid19 under control.
There are some (best case scenario) suggestions that we could even see it down to near zero in both countries within the next 6 weeks, if we maintain the current restrictions.

If that is the case, would it not be worth Aus/NZ operating as a block in terms of travel and economy, restarting the tourism industry in both countries, and giving Qantas, Virgin, Jetstar and AirNz a gentle restart.

As long as we maintain the strict quarantine on travel from everywhere else, and therefore no other airlines using either country as a stopover/fifth freedom route.

Hey, we could even ditch the old passports requirement while we are at it.

Thoughts?

 

[p--and--t]

I believe that was already discussed in the PMs press conference today.

I was a bit concerned when NZ said they thought Singapore could be on the early list for NZ to reopen their borders. SIN are currently going through a second wave. The only relatively "safe" country in the world at the moment is Taiwan.

 

[Dr Ralph]

So I’ve been thinking that Australia and New Zealand seem to be doing an excellent job at getting covid19 under control.
There are some (best case scenario) suggestions that we could even see it down to near zero in both countries within the next 6 weeks, if we maintain the current restrictions.

If that is the case, would it not be worth Aus/NZ operating as a block in terms of travel and economy, restarting the tourism industry in both countries, and giving Qantas, Virgin, Jetstar and AirNz a gentle restart.

As long as we maintain the strict quarantine on travel from everywhere else, and therefore no other airlines using either country as a stopover/fifth freedom route.

Hey, we could even ditch the old passports requirement while we are at it.

Thoughts?

Can't see it happening.

 

[Mr H]

The only relatively "safe" country in the world at the moment is Taiwan.

Not so - there's Turkmenistan. Zero cases to date.

 

[p--and--t]

Not so - there's Turkmenistan. Zero cases to date.

Zero reported cases. And even if that were true (very unlikely), what is their proven plan to overcome an outbreak other than "we pray a lot".

 

[burmans]

I think that it's almost certain that when they start to lift travel restrictions (which will happen sometime) it will only be with other countries with similarly low transmission rates. So the concept of a lifting of restriction cross Tasman as an early step has certainly occurred to me too. But think we are talking closer to 6 months than 6 weeks!

 

[p--and--t]

I think that it's almost certain that when they start to lift travel restrictions (which will happen sometime) it will only be with other countries with similarly low transmission rates. So the concept of a lifting of restriction cross Tasman as an early step has certainly occurred to me too. But think we are talking closer to 6 months than 6 weeks!

The elusive crystal ball urgently required. The end of the next 4 weeks will be very interesting to see if both nations can get to a "virtual" extinction and have built the PM's "industrial strength" capability to deal with any outbreaks. Not in a big hurry myself but there are quite a few itchy flyers out there.

The AU tourism minister appears hopeful many will spend their money domestically in the intervening period from when the brakes are loosened to the tentative opening of borders.

 

[CaptJCool]

Not so - there's Turkmenistan. Zero cases to date.

Can’t wait for a Virgin flight from Turkmenistan to Ozistan....

Coronavirus vacation: Australian family recreate 15-hour holiday flight in living room

Family from Newcastle had planned trip to Europe before Covid-19 hit, so decided to imitate the journey – complete with security checks and airline meals

www.theguardian.com

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Yes I posted a while back that an Anzac bubble is entirely plausible in the not so near future.

Greenland is CV19 free already and so we can add them in as honorary Anzacs to expand our horizons a little

 

[p--and--t]

Yes I posted a while back that an Anzac bubble is entirely plausible in the not so near future.

Greenland is CV19 free already and so we can add them in as honorary Anzacs to expand our horizons a little

Greenland is on my list , but can't find any direct flights i.e. ones that won't transit through a land of pestilence.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Greenland is on my list , but can't find any direct flights i.e. ones that won't transit through a land of pestilence.

Well the cruise ship diehards may be hoping for a ship to sail there and back

 

[Mr H]

Zero reported cases. And even if that were true (very unlikely), what is their proven plan to overcome an outbreak other than "we pray a lot".

Turkmenistan has completely banned the virus - which seems like a sensible step to me. Even mentioning it is an offence. For a while they redirected incoming passengers to quarantine in Turkmenabat but fortunately nobody brought the virus in. Now the borders have been completely sealed.

I think Tajikistan adopted a similar approach and is also virus free.

It shows that being physically isolated and having decisive leaders can bring significant advantages.

 

[jb747]

Whilst a likely outcome, it won't make much of a difference to the airlines. 100% of stuff all is still .....

 

[Human]

It's definitely not a crazy idea. One thing's for sure: when international travel restrictions are lifted, it won't be to every country -- much more likely the restrictions will be lifted one country at a time (or a few at a time), and NZ has to be at, or very near, the top of the list. I actually love the idea of the "Trans Tasman Bubble" and it might just work!

 

[Pushka]

I heard that because Greece shut down early and Poland that those two countries, likely with less sophisticated medical facilities are also doing very well.

New Zealand needs Australia more than the reverse and of late their PM hasn't been speaking very well of our policies. Discussions will be interesting methinks.

Well the cruise ship diehards may be hoping for a ship to sail there and back

Oh yeah. They are ready to book. Cruiselines will take their money. And no port will let them in. Good outcome.

 

[burmans]

It's definitely not a crazy idea. One thing's for sure: when international travel restrictions are lifted, it won't be to every country -- much more likely the restrictions will be lifted one country at a time (or a few at a time), and NZ has to be at, or very near, the top of the list. I actually love the idea of the "Trans Tasman Bubble" and it might just work!

Aside for low coronavirus rates you need to consider the volume of traffic given one of the reasons for doing this is to restart tourism with associated benefits to airlines/hotels etc. NZ is only just behind China in number of visitors per year, both providing circa 1.4M (see 3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Nov 2019) and we know China may be more difficult politically to open up.

Similar number of visitors (1.5M) of Australians to NZ and they are the largest tourism contributor (40% of arrivals).

 

[Lynda2475]

With NZ and Aus both being islands, it makes sense that once both have virtually no community transmission, that direct travel between the two would be permitted provided both countries keep theri borders closed to other nations (unless mutaully agree to add more islands in).

In Europe, the Amercias, Africa and alot of asia Asia there are way too many land borders which are not hard to cross, so will be much longer before we can contmplate opening up to them. Although still hope I can go toHawaii on Boxing day.

 

[Human]

With NZ and Aus both being islands, it makes sense that once both have virtually no community transmission, that direct travel between the two would be permitted provided both countries keep theri borders closed to other nations (unless mutaully agree to add more islands in).

In Europe, the Amercias, Africa and alot of asia Asia there are way too many land borders which are not hard to cross, so will be much longer before we can contmplate opening up to them. Although still hope I can go toHawaii on Boxing day.

It's no surprise that the countries that are doing best in controlling the virus (Australia, NZ, Taiwan, Singapore, Iceland, South Korea, Japan etc) are either islands or "virtual" islands (given the virtually-closed border between North and South Korea, for example).

 

[dajop]

SIN are currently going through a second wave.

Common misconception. In SIN it's the first wave that is still building. For a six weeks or so it was 5-10 cases a day, then foreign Singaporeans started returning home (mainly from UK and US) and the numbers jumped to 40-60 a day. They were very slow to implement lockdowns, so it wasn't like lockdown, open up, second wave, lock down again. Whilst the number is now increasing by hundreds every day (~730 yesterday), most of these are in foreign worker dorms. I assume this was an oversight/mismanagement, and those workers are now locked down in their dorms, and the spread in the rest of the community seems to be back to about 50-80 order of magnitude. now that measures similar to most of Australia have been implemented (with the addition of compulsory wearing of face masks outside the home) hopefully see the broader community outcome (outside the dorms) will parallel what we see in AU, and not what we see in northern Italy or New York. As for the dorms - it will probably generate some data on herd immunity amongst 20-40 yo South Asian men (hopefully by mismanagement and not by design).

No direct parallel here in AU on dorms, but a warning for what could happen in aged care homes, prisons, boarding schools, backpacker dorms, mining camps, etc where people are living and eating in close quarters to each other.

But back on topic, I don't see any way right now where Australia and NZ opening a mooted "bubble" to Singapore would be acceptable. Maybe Taiwan, but Singapore has a way to run on this, and it could easily go either way.

 

[CaptJCool]

We saw the damage of CV roaring thru nursing homes -6 residents deceased - Dorothy was no help. the Wizard didn’t deliver - one of the Sydney ones.

I’m bracing for the Newmarch cases goin the same way - sadly