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2019 Federal Election Discussion

OATEK

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Macquarie seems the real close one with 50 votes in it at present

Other lineball call will be the Qld Senate, where you have LNP, ON, Greens and Labor fighting for the last 3 seats - all on 0.6 to 0.8 of a quota
Latest number on Macquarie is 68 to LNP (so going very slightly in their favour today). The usual turnout is around 91%, of eligible voters in Australia, and the current figures are at 86% counted so still around 5% of votes potentially lurking uncounted.
 

cove

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I am feeling a deep sense of relief that the election results are the way they are. I hope the Labor and Liberals work quickly to get the tax reductions legislation into law. Currently about 30% of working Australians would battle to pay an unexpected $500 bill so the cuts should be done immediately.
The Reserve Bank look like they will cut interest rates in June and August and a small amount should flow thru to the home mortgage rates.
 

Quickstatus

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Chisholm 1220 Libs ahead.
Bass 453 Libs ahead
Macquarie 68 Libs ahead

Senate crossbench prepositioning by saying they wont support tax cut legislation because there was not a mandate
 

dajop

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The Reserve Bank look like they will cut interest rates in June and August and a small amount should flow thru to the home mortgage rates.
Yes and it will be even better for those of us who own bank shares as no doubt a 0.25% drop in official interest rates will flow through as a 0.1% drop in mortgage rates and 0.4% drop on interest earned on savings :rolleyes:
 

moa999

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Latest number on Macquarie is 68 to LNP (so going very slightly in their favour today). The usual turnout is around 91%, of eligible voters in Australia, and the current figures are at 86% counted so still around 5% of votes potentially lurking uncounted.
Appears no votes from the main Penrith pre-poll centre have been entered into either 1P or 2PP count. All other booths done. Then just postals and out of electorate votes.

LNP have now moved into 3rd in the Qld Senate race, so could end up with 35 seats.
 

Hvr

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I hope the Labor and Liberals work quickly to get the tax reductions legislation into law. Currently about 30% of working Australians would battle to pay an unexpected $500 bill so the cuts should be done immediately.

There's no rush for ScoMo to fulfil one of his few campaign promises this early in the cycle. All he has to do is put it to the House in the last weeks of the government and tell the world how great he is and they'll believe him.

I fully appreciate the figure about 30% of workers not being able to pay an unexpected $500 bill, indeed I saw it recently when the employer of a person I know, had a computer glitch and paid their employees a week late.

The person concerned literally had no money and had to borrow from her parents to pay a regular bill that was due immediately.

Another way to relieve financial stress on employees would be to pay them a fair wage and really punish wage theft by employers.
 

love_the_life

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I am feeling a deep sense of relief that the election results are the way they are. I hope the Labor and Liberals work quickly to get the tax reductions legislation into law. Currently about 30% of working Australians would battle to pay an unexpected $500 bill so the cuts should be done immediately.
The Reserve Bank look like they will cut interest rates in June and August and a small amount should flow thru to the home mortgage rates.
I thought I read that this wasn't going to happen now till 2020 given that parliament won't sit until after June.
 

PJF

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Nailed it. I would only add at the end

... which makes any difference.

Which puts into perspective the motion raised last might by a Green on the Hobart City Council that the Council declare 'a climate emergency' . I guess it made him feel good.

It didn't attract a quorum.
Climate emergency another greeny in fantasy land. Perhaps a feed of lentils might sharpen his neurones up
 
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Quickstatus

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There's no rush for ScoMo to fulfil one of his few campaign promises this early in the cycle. All he has to do is put it to the House in the last weeks of the government and tell the world how great he is and they'll believe him.

I fully appreciate the figure about 30% of workers not being able to pay an unexpected $500 bill, indeed I saw it recently when the employer of a person I know, had a computer glitch and paid their employees a week late.

The person concerned literally had no money and had to borrow from her parents to pay a regular bill that was due immediately.

Another way to relieve financial stress on employees would be to pay them a fair wage and really punish wage theft by employers.
A living wage would be consumed by costs of living. While the CPI is flat, the costs of living still go up. Electricity is one. Rent is the other. Casualisation of work. Social housing like @cove ’s projects so people can live near their work. There are a lot of things that Govt and Opposition can do before they go down the climate catastrophe route or try to re-engineer society via a culture and gender war.
Get back to basics ALP!!

.....
Interestingly Cowan has tightened to ALP ahead on 2PP by 762 votes.

.....
BTW Folks our neighbour to the north has re-elected JokoWi for another 5 years amid accusation of a electoral fraud and a possible constitutional court challenge

5 year terms is not a bad idea but there needs to be a mechanism to recall a government if they have gone off the rails.
 
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cove

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I find that Governments....local State and Federal are some of the worst when it comes to cost of living increases. We are hoping to acquire a C Class hospital that cannot meet the new codes to become our next social housing project.
One of my colleagues is Chairman of a billion dollar church based retirement village operator. It is just as difficult to run that operation and they operate without any debt.
With the price drops in housing in Sydney and Melbourne together with falling interest rates affordability of accommodation is improving a little. I do hope landlords are reasonable with their rentals.
In a workplace you have to have productivity improvements to do wage increases and bonuses so it has to be a joint effort by employers and employees.
 

Quickstatus

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@cove What should rent+utilities be to be “social housing compatible”
.....
BTW Macquarie LIB 2PP margin slightly increased to 133. Not schadenfreude - i desire stability in governance after a decade of chaos.
 

tgh

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We aged pensioners have really noticed the cost of stuff escalating ; it is not an issue for us but for someone with a family on a stable wage it must be tough.
Labour sought to unleash the inflation genie by driving up wages and living with the back end issue (everyone in business escalating to compensate).
In this age of low inflation I sometimes yearn for the exciting times of 17% interest rates….
I have no serious idea how a fiscally conservative government can preserve the financial integrity of the nation AND improve the everyday life of the wage earners.
I am quite sure that the conservatives will try .. and that's a long way better than peeing the money against the climate change wall…..

btw @cove.. would love to hear more about your social work… not enough business puts back.. it's something we need to foster
 

Hvr

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5 year terms is not a bad idea but there needs to be a mechanism to recall a government if they have gone off the rails.

I'd suggest fixed four year terms for state and federal governments. Victoria does it and you know when the election will be held.

What if all the states went to an election at the same time every four years and the federal government went at the intervening two year mark so the voters get a chance to see how the party is going in their state?

E.g. states have their elections in 2021, 2025 and so on and the federal government has their election on 2023, 2027....

Have them all in the same month so how about July, no public holidays nor school holidays not football finals.

The main impediment I see is that senators would either need to have an eight year term or have half senate elections at the same time at the state elections.
 

dajop

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What if all the states went to an election at the same time every four years and the federal government went at the intervening two year mark so the voters get a chance to see how the party is going in their state?

Not sure that your suggestion is such a good idea. In the US they have the 2 year cycle (mid terms, presidential) and the place seems to be in continuous election mode. :eek:
 

OATEK

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@cove What should rent+utilities be to be “social housing compatible”
.....
BTW Macquarie LIB 2PP margin slightly increased to 133. Not schadenfreude - i desire stability in governance after a decade of chaos.
Inching higher - now LNP lead by 151.
 
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