Looming Jet Fuel Shortages?

[Saab34]

Crack spread is heading back to $80 it seems, ouch.

 

[serfty]

Have any airline introduced a fuel surcharge yet?

JAL have ... for transpacific flights, it is USD320, even for economy!

 

[Pushka]

JAL have ... for transpacific flights, it is USD320, even for economy!

Any increasing post booking?

 

[serfty]

Any increasing post booking?

No ...

 

[LionKing]

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Does Bali has fuel crisis? Hopefully it is not related to jet fuel.

 

[Quickstatus]

Does Bali has fuel crisis?

Yes - because there is a shortage of the cheap subsidised stuff at the pump

No- because the cause was a logistical one.
Bali gets its fuel by sea
A tanker tried to anchor but the anchor slipped and this delayed delivery by apparently nearly a day. Othercdeliveries hampered by rough seas.
This caused panic buying which led to the pictures of long queues

The cheap fuel Pertalite is made by Indonesian govt owned refineries and is heavily subsidised by the Govt. The alternatives are much more expensive

 

[elanshin]

On a more general note. Seems oil is kinda flowing through Hormuz so the immediate predicted crunch (if nothing happened) has subsided, but due to the amount of money waved at sailors at the moment , fuel prices are likely to remain "high".

From what I understand, a lot of smaller vessels are going through during safe passage times US Navy is providing (twice a day last I checked), then transferring to big tankers anchored just outside Hormuz. This method is estimated to have recovered to about 70-80% of pre war volumes, but at a much higher cost.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

On a more general note. Seems oil is kinda flowing through Hormuz so the immediate predicted crunch (if nothing happened) has subsided, but due to the amount of money waved at sailors at the moment , fuel prices are likely to remain "high".

From what I understand, a lot of smaller vessels are going through during safe passage times US Navy is providing (twice a day last I checked), then transferring to big tankers anchored just outside Hormuz. This method is estimated to have recovered to about 70-80% of pre war volumes, but at a much higher cost.

I read it was 90% of pre-war output!

 

[StayGoldPonyboy]

Sam Mercogliano's YouTube channel "What's Going on with Shipping" is good for regular updates on the various pinch points

 

[jrfsp]

On a more general note. Seems oil is kinda flowing through Hormuz so the immediate predicted crunch (if nothing happened) has subsided, but due to the amount of money waved at sailors at the moment , fuel prices are likely to remain "high".

From what I understand, a lot of smaller vessels are going through during safe passage times US Navy is providing (twice a day last I checked), then transferring to big tankers anchored just outside Hormuz. This method is estimated to have recovered to about 70-80% of pre war volumes, but at a much higher cost.

I wouldn’t believe everything (or anything) that comes out of Washington.

Crude oil back up to $110 a barrel

Ship attack reports near Hormuz reach record high as oil exports slow

BBC Verify analysis of data from a UK maritime agency shows 12 vessels were struck in a week.

www.bbc.com

 

[drron]

And I don’t don’t believe a lot that is on the BBC.

 

[Pushka]

And I don’t don’t believe a lot that is on the BBC.

I don't believe any media these days. I think I already posted that here!

 

[elanshin]

Part of the problem, especially with the Middle East and Russia/Ukraine is that by the time you go post an article, it could be true at the time of you writing it, but be inaccurate 2 days later.

 

[jrfsp]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2026/10/23/jet-fuel-hits-206-a-barrel-highest-price-since-iran-war-began/

Northern winter will be painful if this continues - will be a wave of capacity cuts / insolvency

 

[Melburnian1]

@Quickstatus , could you please submit one of your famous fuel stock contributions again?

 

[Quickstatus]

Previous posts:
#45 Tuesday 10/3/26
#165 for 31/3/26
#214 for 07/04/26
#307 for 14/4/26
#351 for 21/4/26
#382 for 28/04/26
#393 for 05/05/26
#412 for 12/5/26
#415 for 19/5/26
#418 for 26/5/26
#419 for 02/6/26
#434 for 09/6/26
#453 for 30/06/26
#465 for 21/07/26
#481 for04/08/26



Compared to 10/3/26
Petrol increased by 39
Jetfuel increased by 4
Diesel reduced by 480



Quickstatus fuel stocks outside of vehicle and equiment fuel tanks
120L diesel
100L petrol
0L Jetfuel

could you please submit one of your famous fuel stock contributions again?

Basically over the 8 months the fuel supply at the gate has been stable. No significant shifts have occurred in the stock holding of liquid fuel.