Middle East Airspace Diversions/Cancellations

[offshore171]

A small but hopefully interesting data point.

I’m on QF1 J on friday

It’s gone from 1 spare seat, to (now) 3 spare seats.

People cancelling discretionary travel?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

People cancelling discretionary travel?

Yeah, or business travel where they are risk sensitive.

 

[AuSammy]

I can't see how this conflict can go for a month as a reported possibility today.

Surely the multiple nations being fired at will run out of defensive missiles well before that, and as non-combatant casualties rise the appetite from "partners" in the region will drop off very quickly.

 

[Aeryn]

I can't see how this conflict can go for a month as a reported possibility today.

4 weeks is nothing given the coughnals some of the ME countries have. Those of us that remember the 90s recall the gulf war lasted 7 months.

Even when active attacks cease major repairs will be needed to the runways, hotels etc that were damaged.

Only the sunniest of optimists would be confident on flying with a ME stop in the next month.

 

[exLXCXFF]

Just checked - Qatar Airways has zero planes in the air as of writing, not even freighters are operating.

EK is operating a few freighters and fifth freedom routes (ex NYC and ex-South America) — that is about it.

 

[RSD]

I can't see how this conflict can go for a month as a reported possibility today.

Surely the multiple nations being fired at will run out of defensive missiles well before that, and as non-combatant casualties rise the appetite from "partners" in the region will drop off very quickly.

To be honest I don't think that anyone knows how long this will go for. Chances of a ceasefire would I think be pretty slim, and one side running out of missiles doesn't mean that the other side will stop firing... so certainly I think we are looking at a number of weeks rather than a few days.

 

[prozac]

To be honest I don't think that anyone knows how long this will go for. Chances of a ceasefire would I think be pretty slim, and one side running out of missiles doesn't mean that the other side will stop firing... so certainly I think we are looking at a number of weeks rather than a few days.

Israel and USA are declaring they are close to 100% air dominance. UAE have expressed they are prepared to commit aircraft as required.

 

[Tiki]

Interesting, the US travel advisories only have UAE at level 2, Qatar is Level 3 (reconsider). Only Iran, Iraq, Yemen and Afghanistan are Level 4 DNT. Such a huge difference between the USA and Australian govts!

I'm nervously keeping an eye on Oman, I am there for 3 days then to Istanbul on Oman Air. So far they are ok. BKK-MCT-IST. Jetstar BNE to BKK all a QF award in Y. Last resort, I can use my US passport and buy US travel insurance so that's my backup plan.

 

[AIRwin]

Qatar Airways will resume operations once the Qatar Civil Aviation Authority announces the safe reopening of Qatari airspace. A further update will be provided on March 02 by 09:00 Doha time (06:00 UTC). - So we should have an update/extension of the airspace by 4pm, Sydney time.

17:00 AEDT

 

[AuSammy]

4 weeks is nothing given the coughnals some of the ME countries have. Those of us that remember the 90s recall the gulf war lasted 7 months

I have no direct knowledge obviously but the pundits are saying interceptor missiles are horrendously expensive and in limited supply and Iran has huge scattered supplies of cheap missiles and drones to fire at will so things can't go on too long without civilians in surrounding countries starting to be effected.

 

[OATEK]

I must say that this event was foreseeable, perhaps inevitable, and I tend to agree with those that feel it will be resolved in weeks rather than months or years.

Yesterday I decided to book my next foray through the ME with EK (SIN-DXB-LGW and return), for a visit to my daughter's family in London in August/September. Not because it is far enough away to not be affected by the current conflict, but more because I was concerned that fares would rise as a consequence of disruption, loss of income etc. and picking up J for around $6k each was worth locking in.

 

[lovestotravel]

17:00 AEDT

Yes sorry 17:00

Update: Qatar Airways flight operations remain temporarily suspended due to the closure of Qatari airspace. Qatar Airways will resume operations once the Qatar Civil Aviation Authority announces the safe reopening of Qatari airspace. A further update will be provided on March 03 by 09:00 Doha time (06:00 UTC). Passengers are advised to monitor the latest flight information via

So we wait another 24 hours - Until 17:00 tomorrow

I like how they at least give times for new updates, where as the UAE doesn't!

I must say that this event was foreseeable, perhaps inevitable, and I tend to agree with those that feel it will be resolved in weeks rather than months or years.

Yesterday I decided to book my next foray through the ME with EK (SIN-DXB-LGW and return), for a visit to my daughter's family in London in August/September. Not because it is far enough away to not be affected by the current conflict, but more because I was concerned that fares would rise as a consequence of disruption, loss of income etc. and picking up J for around $6k each was worth locking in.

My biggest regret was not buying some gold last week

 

[Pushka]

I must say that this event was foreseeable, perhaps inevitable, and I tend to agree with those that feel it will be resolved in weeks rather than months or years.

Yesterday I decided to book my next foray through the ME with EK (SIN-DXB-LGW and return), for a visit to my daughter's family in London in August/September. Not because it is far enough away to not be affected by the current conflict, but more because I was concerned that fares would rise as a consequence of disruption, loss of income etc. and picking up J for around $6k each was worth locking in.

You make a good case for looking for bargains when flights become available.

 

[justinbrett]

I like how they at least give times for new updates, where as the UAE doesn't!

EK is at 1500 local, EY at 1400. That’s in a few hours (9/10pm Sydney time)

 

[IrishPete]

Qantas is still selling tickets for later this week from Europe to Australia on Emirates... They're cheap!

 

[PineappleSkip]

Interesting, the US travel advisories only have UAE at level 2, Qatar is Level 3 (reconsider). Only Iran, Iraq, Yemen and Afghanistan are Level 4 DNT. Such a huge difference between the USA and Australian govts!

Australian travel advices have always been among the most risk averse. The UK FCDO advice is green (good to go) for most of Jordan and Saudi; essential travel only for Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and UAE; ambiguous for most of Oman; and Do Not Travel to Israel, Iran, and Iraq. Afghanistan has been on everyone's "do not travel list" since the Taliban took control of Kabul.

 

[LionKing]

Qantas is still selling tickets for later this week from Europe to Australia on Emirates... They're cheap!

Flexibility for our customers 

We’re offering additional flexibility for customers who have booked flights to/from or via the UAE, Qatar, Israel, Jordan and Oman through Qantas on partner airlines.

If you wish to change your booking or no longer wish to travel, you can access a fee-free refund, fee-free Flight Credit (fare difference may apply) or fee-free date change for flights booked on or before 1 March 2026 for travel between 28 February and 5 March 2026 (when rebooking to travel on or before 20 March 2026, subject to availability). 

If you’ve booked directly with Qantas, contact us to discuss your options, including a refund. 

If you’ve booked through a travel agent or another airline and you're travelling:

• within the next 3 days, and your flight has been cancelled you can contact us for flight changes. For refunds, speak to your travel agent directly.
• within the next 3 days and your flight has not been cancelled, contact your travel agent directly for changes and refunds.
• after 5 March, please contact them directly for assistance.

Seems like if you book after 1st March and your flights is still not operating, flexibility terms may not be on your side, you are gambling with Qantas here.

 

[dajop]

SQ have jacked up fares a little (ex-SIN anyway). I was looking at for a business trip to northern Africa in last week of March, I initially priced on Friday/Saturday:

SQ to LHR increased business class fares $4k vs Saturday morning. (lower fare buckets zeroed out)
SQ into FRA / out of ZRH looking good. Interestingly purchasing as LH/LX codeshares ( operated by SQ) is- $4k less than same flights with SQ code.

 

[clifford]

I have a J ticket on EY, MNL-AUH-MXP for 3 weeks time. I don't expect to fly (the flights likely will be cancelled), but I do expect a full refund from Etihad.

That being the case, I'll go to Thailand instead (perhaps I should've booked that in the first place). BKK and CNX, with a little Pattaya thrown in for good measure.

This skirmish with Iran will likely hurt the ME3 cashflow for some time, going forward.

 

[mbe1510]

An Etihad Boeing 777 freighter (EY947) took off from Abu Dhabi an hour ago for Hong Kong.

Wonder if that is a sign that airlines are looking for ways to get some operations going.