Article: Have Australians Stopped Flying to the USA? Here’s What the Data Says…

[RooFlyer]

It's also in the very first sentence of the article: 'There have been plenty of anecdotal reports of fewer people travelling to the United States in 2025, compared to previous years. But is this actually true for Australians?'

But the first sentence is true isn't it? Plenty of talk here on AFF about people not going to USA (not claiming its correct, or has any basis) EDIT: see post below. Then the second sentence asks if its true, then the article goes on to test the idea, and drawing on BITRE data, suggests its not true BUT also notes limitations on the analysis.

Its not really a counter just to link to other countries' data - there could be different methodologies, filters, time lags etc. You can do a study on Australian govt data, or one of USA govt data for just about any subject and they won't necessarily agree.

If people disagree with the conclusions using BITRE data, they should draw the data from BITRE reports themselves and show it, or draw data from some other source and show it and show how it contradicts the conclusions.

I don't know one way or the other - I'd love to learn! But I don't respect broad statements just saying its wrong 'cos some other source of data says something else. Put the effort into sharing the knowledge.

 

[IrishPete]

Between January and August 2024, 778,802 people flew from the USA to Australia. Over the same period, 792,839 people flew in the other direction from Australia to the USA. This effectively means that 14,037 people left Australia for the USA during that period but didn’t return, which could indicate that they permanently migrated from Australia to the United States.

Does this include those people who then flew to Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean or to Europe ?

I came here to say something similar.
The article points out that it doesn't include people flying to the USA from Australia via a third country (specifically New Zealand, but potentially a whole lot of other places too), but is less clear about people only transiting through the USA.

We won't even be transiting through the USA while Trump or any of his minions remain in office - the risk of being given a difficult time and even refused entry, is just too high, as are the consequences potentially too serious. Partner is Canadian, and flights to Vancouver through the USA are much cheaper, especially when using points. So I wonder who many Australians are flying through the USA to Canada or other destinations outside the USA.

I have been sooo wanting to go back to Hawaii for years, but with the price of accommodation, the stupid "resort fees" and the low $Aussie, cant justify the price - and probably same for many others. Not that its losing appeal - its becoming unaffordable.

And then there's the risk of USA immigration authorities being difficult.

 

[levelnine]

But the first sentence is true isn't it? Plenty of talk here on AFF about people not going to USA (not claiming its correct, or has any basis). Then the second sentence asks if its true, then the article goes on to test the idea, and drawing on BITRE data, suggests its not true BUT also notes limitations on the analysis.

The BITRE data cannot answer the question posed by the article.

It's a complete non-sequitur.

It's like asking: What will the weather in Sydney be tomorrow?

Then answering: Looks good judging by the forecast for London.

 

[RooFlyer]

The BITRE data cannot answer the question posed by the article.

It's a complete non-sequitur.

It's like asking: What will the weather in Sydney be tomorrow?

Then answering: Looks good judging by the forecast for London.

Show us! I respect your knowledge, but just saying nyet doesn't help me.

 

[levelnine]

Show us! I respect your knowledge, but just saying nyet doesn't help me.

The BITRE data does not break down arrivals by nationality.

The article is making a claim about nationality.

 

[Quickstatus]

Am I right there are less QF seats from AU to US than 10 years ago?

 

[justinbrett]

Am I right there are less QF seats from AU to US than 10 years ago?

For QF specifically, I think there's slightly less, mostly because 787-9 as fewer seats than 744, but there are more flights.

For all carriers though it's far more seats now, as there are more flights from US carriers.

 

[VPS]

The number of passengers travelling between USA/Canada and Australia is greatly affected by people joining a cruise hence not returning from USA or Canada

Welcome to AFF

 

[lovestotravel]

Didn't Qantas just a few weeks ago put LA on sale for $999? I remember thinking why it was cheaper than Tokyo. Anyway that says it all really.

They do it every year for that price, nothing new, so that says it all really

 

[Gromit]

Unless you are taking the headline literally, "stopped flying" I don't think you are right. The headline reflects a pervasive feeling that tourism at least to the USA has dropped because of Trumpian boarders.

Above, there have been links to US I-92 data, US I-94 data and questions about the veracity of such data. I think you need to show us how the data in the article doesn't reflect what's in the BITRE (Australian) reports and/or why the BITRE data is incorrect.

There is nothing wrong with the headline per se as yes many people ask that. however the data tells us absolutely nothing about the answer to that question. If you are going to analyse data then it should be data that can actually dig into the heart of the question not data that tells you nothing and in fact leads you to a likely incorrect answer.

The US data may be dodgy, but it is a long way better than what was used it would also be likely that the US would favour making the US look like it is more attractive than it is for travelers to support the government stance. So if they are dodgy then it is in the other direction to what the data used suggests.

 

[itchy feet]

I returned from the US this week and I can say that my outward flight, QF was full as in fact were all my flights with various airlines. However I purchased a one way ticket and then did the same coming home via Asia as it was much more cost effective. I’m sure there would be plenty of other travellers like me who dont wish to give QF the outrageous sums they are still charging for trans Pacific services. This would also skew the stats.

We flew to US in April via Fiji with Fiji Airways. If we'd booked using QF flight number instead of FJ, travelling on same days/route/FJ aircraft, the fare would have been 50% more expensive.

 

[justinbrett]

All statistics are limited.

There is no data set that accurately records the number of Australian residents and/or citizens who travel to the US, either directly or via another country, and stay within the US for tourism purposes (ie, aren’t just there for transit).

So we can look at the number of Australian citizens going through US immigration, or look at the number of foreigners flying on flights from Australia to the US, or some other report like those published by the ABS, but they’re all imperfect and don’t tell the full story.

However as they all seem to suggest a slight (<10%) downtown in tourists (with the potential to get worse if recent trends continue), then that seems like a fair conclusion. They also align with the statistics reported by places like Vegas and Hawaii who have reported a reduction of around 8%.

 

[Ansett Nostalgic]

We won't even be transiting through the USA while Trump or any of his minions remain in office - the risk of being given a difficult time and even refused entry, is just too high, as are the consequences potentially too serious. Partner is Canadian, and flights to Vancouver through the USA are much cheaper, especially when using points. So I wonder who many Australians are flying through the USA to Canada or other destinations outside the USA.

Are you planning to stay illegally in the US? If not, why do you feel at risk?

 

[dajop]

Are you planning to stay illegally in the US? If not, why do you feel at risk?

Surely it's not about plans to stay illegally, but whether the CBP think that you at risk of doing so. All the media articles suggest people with links to the US (such as having had a long term visa to stay there, past or present, having marital or relationship connections with a US citizen or anything else that could indicate a risk of staying illegally - whether planning to or not - are coming under increased scrutiny). Or those involved media and reporting of certain viewpoints.

For your average visitor on an ESTA who has no connection to the US, it doesn't seem problematic at all.