AFF Member Stock Discussion

[prozac]

Looking at alcohol based stocks like Endeavour group. EDVs problems aside the sector does not look robust at all at this time and one could surmise drinking habits in Australia are changing, except for the performance of one company MTS that bucks the trend.

The Moments in Alcohol survey from consumer analysis agency Fontoshowed a 10.9% YoY fall in spending per customer at Dan Murphy’s althoughthe same metric at BWS rose 1.1%. This compares very favourably, however,with the brands owned by Coles (COL), where spending per customer sank14.8% at Vintage Cellars, slumped 13.3% at First Choice, and fell 1.4% atLiquorland. The much smaller Cellarbrations franchise operation of Metcash(MTS) was the outlier in the latest Fonto survey, showing a 14.1% increase inspending per customer.

AGL looks friendless as the market seems unimpressed with cost containment and perhaps the battery venture? Standing aside for now.

 

[CaptainCurtis]

Finally hoping that my AUQ is going to get moving... sell side is very thin -
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I'm also a long suffering holder. Chipping away slowly today.

 

[RSD]

I'm also a long suffering holder. Chipping away slowly today.

Maaaaate! It has been a long suffering, when it was rising steadily and got to 8.8 cents last April I don't think that any of us would have imagined that it would end up back down to 1.8 cents in less than 12 months. Then there was the Takeovers Panel thing - never in a million years did I imagine that I would have to take a company to the Takeovers Panel.

But finally at long last things are heading in the right direction again.

 

[CaptainCurtis]

Maaaaate! It has been a long suffering, when it was rising steadily and got to 8.8 cents last April I don't think that any of us would have imagined that it would end up back down to 1.8 cents in less than 12 months. Then there was the Takeovers Panel thing - never in a million years did I imagine that I would have to take a company to the Takeovers Panel.

But finally at long last things are heading in the right direction again.

Seems to be, I just worry about how much reputational damage has been done.

You all did very will with the Takeovers Panel.

 

[RSD]

Seems to be, I just worry about how much reputational damage has been done.

That seems to be the thing now - quite a bit of damage done that will take time to recover from

You all did very will with the Takeovers Panel.

An extremely arduous couple of months - the sheer amount of questions from the Takeovers Panel that we had to reply to, and then rebuttals to what Alara had submitted and so forth - the amount of thinking that had to go into all of that and the fatigue and everything else - a lot of brain cells were killed off.

 

[Brissy1]

That seems to be the thing now - quite a bit of damage done that will take time to recover from

An extremely arduous couple of months - the sheer amount of questions from the Takeovers Panel that we had to reply to, and then rebuttals to what Alara had submitted and so forth - the amount of thinking that had to go into all of that and the fatigue and everything else - a lot of brain cells were killed off.

Well done.
I read the Takeovers Panel decision https://takeovers.gov.au/sites/takeovers.gov.au/files/2025-02/2025-ATP-1.pdf
Very disturbing, and insisted on making a "determination of unacceptable circumstances".

But what now, is the board going to work for the benefit of all shareholders fair and equitably?

 

[Katie]

RPM Global Holdings (RUL) is about to get a takeover offer. And expectations are that there will be more than one suitor.

This has been in my portfolio for a long while and it has been an exceptional performer. The business is excellent.

I’ll be sad to let it go but if an excellent offer kid made then I’ll reluctantly accept.

It’s a shame that such good businesses get taken off the ASX too early.

Now in hard exclusivity period with Caterpillar with an NBIO for $5 per share/option.

I shoulda bought some shares or asked for options for performance when I started there!!!

 

[RSD]

Well done.
I read the Takeovers Panel decision https://takeovers.gov.au/sites/takeovers.gov.au/files/2025-02/2025-ATP-1.pdf
Very disturbing, and insisted on making a "determination of unacceptable circumstances".

Cheers! Was a massive effort and so was very glad when it was finally over - I slept for 17 hours straight!

The first "hurdle" with the Takeovers Panel is submitting an application that has enough in it to get them sufficiently interested to decide that they will conduct proceedings - somewhere around 60% of applications don't get past that hurdle - and not being a lawyer meant that I didn't k now too much about it all so I wasn't confident that we would get past that point. As we got further into the process we got a little more confident through reading between the lines of where the panel were going, and then to get a declaration of unacceptable circumstances was a huge win considering that when we went into we really didn't know enough about it to know what winning even really looked like.

But what now, is the board going to work for the benefit of all shareholders fair and equitably?

I think the answer lies somewhere between yes and no - I think that they know that they can't try to pull any stunts like that one again, but it seems as though the plan is that the major shareholder + possibly a couple of other shareholders will launch a takeover offer at some stage as that is the only reason that I can think of for them to not be doing any promotion at all - keep the share price as low as possible so as they don't have to offer as much when they try for a takeover.

 

[RSD]

Now in hard exclusivity period with Caterpillar with an NBIO for $5 per share/option.

I shoulda bought some shares or asked for options for performance when I started there!!!

They look like an interesting company to work for. A mate of mine works for CAT in the design of underground mining equipment and he reckons that they are good to work for.

 

[Katie]

They look like an interesting company to work for. A mate of mine works for CAT in the design of underground mining equipment and he reckons that they are good to work for.

It'll be interesting if Cat makes a formal offer, shareholders accept, and it gets past the regulatory groups required.
I went through ABB's acquisition of Mincom, so some things feel the same, but it's far too early for me to really know if it'll be in any way the same. Certainly probably better for all than when Mincom was purchased by private equity, IMNSHO, though I had some interesting managers to learn from.

 

[RSD]

It'll be interesting if Cat makes a formal offer, shareholders accept, and it gets past the regulatory groups required.
I went through ABB's acquisition of Mincom, so some things feel the same, but it's far too early for me to really know if it'll be in any way the same. Certainly probably better for all than when Mincom was purchased by private equity, IMNSHO, though I had some interesting managers to learn from.

From all accounts if your employer gets bought out by private equity then its a good time to find another job...