I would imagine that if QF can fill the plane with passengers opting to use points, they’ll do that first. Would come down to how loaded the flight was.
Just as a datapoint, I received a complimentary upgrade on a MEL-SYD sector at the start of August (guessing as I’d just qualified for P1) but nothing on a MEL-AKL leg the last week despite there being free seats (Y was completely full, however I had what would seem the only shadow in row 4). For the return flight I requested using points and got was successful T-8. For SYD-BKK id not be chancing it!
Just as a datapoint, I received a complimentary upgrade on a MEL-SYD sector at the start of August (guessing as I’d just qualified for P1) but nothing on a MEL-AKL leg the last week despite there being free seats (Y was completely full, however I had what would seem the only shadow in row 4). For the return flight I requested using points and got was successful T-8. For SYD-BKK id not be chancing it!