AFF Point Valuations

[NM]

Totally agree. I can't see the three year hard expiry for SQ being a material consideration

Hard points expiry is a major consideration in programs for me. And one reason that AAdvantage is my primary alternate to QFF. I would have lost many thousands of miles/points across several programs (airlines, hotels) if hard expiry applied to my used programs. I am willing and able to maintain currency of my program points through occasional earning to reset expiry dates, but hard expiry after a fixed time in the program just does not work for my earn/burn churning.

 

[burmans]

Hard points expiry is a major consideration in programs for me. And one reason that AAdvantage is my primary alternate to QFF. I would have lost many thousands of miles/points across several programs (airlines, hotels) if hard expiry applied to my used programs. I am willing and able to maintain currency of my program points through occasional earning to reset expiry dates, but hard expiry after a fixed time in the program just does not work for my earn/burn churning.

Don’t disagree with you that a (very) small number of people would be affected by a hard expiry (but again, easy to extend by at least a year), but 15% of the calculation? I would suggest 1%.
Apart from AFF I follow groups on Facebook, Ozbargain etc. By far the largest complaints are about availability (Qantas in particular- so I thought the Average rating for them was generous!), it would be untrue to say SQ expiry is never mentioned but super rare and I’d suggest a small minority even on this site.

 

[NM]

Don’t disagree with you that a (very) small number of people would be affected by a hard expiry (but again, easy to extend by at least a year), but 15% of the calculation? I would suggest 1%.
Apart from AFF I follow groups on Facebook, Ozbargain etc. By far the largest complaints are about availability (Qantas in particular- so I thought the Average rating for them was generous!), it would be untrue to say SQ expiry is never mentioned but super rare and I’d suggest a small minority even on this site.

So for once someone puts me in the 1% Club . I like being different.

 

[burmans]

So for once someone puts me in the 1% Club . I like being different.

Yeah, I'd actually put at less than 1% in reality (I rounded up) but definitely think you're in a very privileged club if you have to worry about SQ expiry.

 

[Aussiesue2001]

Really appreciate the hard work & thought you both put into this. Just out of interest, were there any programs where the gift card rate wasn’t the lowest return?

 

[Captain Halliday]

I’m disappointed the “basket” of redemptions did not include a toaster.

 

[Tiki]

If someone offered me 500k in my choice of the listed programs I would take SQ, AC or UA because of the lower carrier charges. SQ has better availability in J to my favourite destination IST, AC has more partners that fly to places I want to go. In reality I have to collect what is easy to collect in Australia with a little help from US credit cards so QR, VA and QF it is.

 

[WilsonM]

Really appreciate the hard work & thought you both put into this. Just out of interest, were there any programs where the gift card rate wasn’t the lowest return?

Hilariously, yes:

Qantas - GC at 0.46, lowest was 0.23 (NYC-LHR Y)
Krisflyer - GC at 0.91, lowest was 0.77c/pp (SYD-ZQN Y)
Airpoints - GC effectively 1, lowest was 0.46 (PER-LHR Y)
EY Guest - GC at 0.93, lowest at 0.8 (NYC-LHR Y)
EK Skywards - GC at 0.75, lowest at 0.36 (NYC-LHR Y)
VS Flying Club - GC at 0.99 but hotel redemptions at 0.79.... what?

TLDR - Y redemptions can sometimes suck, especially NYC-LHR due to the ridiculous carrier charges levied.

Really appreciate all the comments, support and suggestions in the thread - we're definitely open to adjusting the model in the future to better reflect value. We'll aim to update this twice a year - to account for any program changes (cough cough Qantas cough).

Only important thing I would urge AFF members to remember is that most AFF members are probably aiming to get higher value for their points than our valuations, as they're simply better at extracting value. So these valuations definitely don't reflect the top ceiling that you can redeem your points for. The millions of other people in Australia who use a point-earning credit card, or those who do their one big trip to Europe in Y and earn 12k miles a year, may struggle a bit more to extract the same value as those that have put in the time and effort here to learn how best to use their points

 

[Kremmen]

Don’t disagree with you that a (very) small number of people would be affected by a hard expiry (but again, easy to extend by at least a year), but 15% of the calculation?

I think you are being very generous to SQ, by using a very limited concept of "affected". I'd say a very large number (the majority) of people are affected by hard expiry. If one set of points has a hard expiry, then you are inevitably forced to use them at a non-optimal time, at least occasionally. If I can get an AC award that's better value than SQ, but the SQ points are going to expire, then I am forced to use SQ, despite them not being the best choice. That consequently means not using AC at their optimal value either.

There's also a flow-on effect for earning, as well as redeeming. Because of the hard expiry, if there is only one good-value SQ award on the horizon, you may be forced to put more earnings towards SQ (e.g. by transferring) in order to have sufficient balance for that award. This is exactly what happened to me. I transferred some Marriott points over to SQ to have enough to get a really good value award. I transferred the exact number, so that my SQ account went to zero and have never used them again, because they are just too much of a pain in the cough to manage.

Avoiding hard expiry means necessarily earning a ton or plundering transfer options (which may not be ideal) and then using them frequently, even when there is better value in other schemes (e.g. AC and AA) on some routes.

(If someone offered me 500k in my choice of the listed programs, I'd take SQ over QF, but that is a totally different situation to earning them from scratch.)

 

[burmans]

I think you are being very generous to SQ, by using a very limited concept of "affected". I'd say a very large number (the majority) of people are affected by hard expiry. If one set of points has a hard expiry, then you are inevitably forced to use them at a non-optimal time, at least occasionally. If I can get an AC award that's better value than SQ, but the SQ points are going to expire, then I am forced to use SQ, despite them not being the best choice. That consequently means not using AC at their optimal value either.

There's also a flow-on effect for earning, as well as redeeming. Because of the hard expiry, if there is only one good-value SQ award on the horizon, you may be forced to put more earnings towards SQ (e.g. by transferring) in order to have sufficient balance for that award. This is exactly what happened to me. I transferred some Marriott points over to SQ to have enough to get a really good value award. I transferred the exact number, so that my SQ account went to zero and have never used them again, because they are just too much of a pain in the cough to manage.

Avoiding hard expiry means necessarily earning a ton or plundering transfer options (which may not be ideal) and then using them frequently, even when there is better value in other schemes (e.g. AC and AA) on some routes.

(If someone offered me 500k in my choice of the listed programs, I'd take SQ over QF, but that is a totally different situation to earning them from scratch.)

Yeah, sorry this doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. If you think there is better value in AC or AA, why have you transferred to SQ in the first place? We’ve all accepted that SQ is valuable to use but harder to get, you must have made a conscious decision in the first place to transfer to SQ. So why, if you don’t think there is value in doing so? No one forced you to do so. If you transferred but not enough points to get a redemption you want it was still your decision to transfer in the first place.

 

[Kremmen]

Yeah, sorry this doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. If you think there is better value in AC or AA, why have you transferred to SQ in the first place? We’ve all accepted that SQ is valuable to use but harder to get, you must have made a conscious decision in the first place to transfer to SQ. So why, if you don’t think there is value in doing so? No one forced you to do so. If you transferred but not enough points to get a redemption you want it was still your decision to transfer in the first place.

My whole point is there is no such thing as "better value in AC or AA" in every case. Best value differs on different routes and even day by day on a route. Sometimes SQ is the best value or simply has availability when nobody else has. But SQ's expiry makes it impossible to choose purely on the basis of value.

It's preposterous that you accuse me of transferring "but not enough points to get a redemption you want". Why assume that nobody ever earns any points any other way than by transfers? Also, most forms of transfers are in chunks, not single points. (This is why Marriott is a great way to top up, because they don't have that limitation.) My SQ balance, a combination of earnings and old transfers and what was left after my previous redemption, was slightly short of what was required. With any other scheme, you have the option to wait until your balance is sufficient. (I had some of my DL miles for over 10 years before I used them.)

 

[trippin_the_rift]

So these valuations definitely don't reflect the top ceiling that you can redeem your points for. The millions of other people in Australia who use a point-earning credit card, or those who do their o

I keep miles in SQ because I know that I'll burn at least X in the next 3 years.
Those miles are not going up in value by sitting in Amex, and transferring out during a bonus period makes it even more worthwhile to warehouse in airline vs bank.

On a separate not of interest for everyone..

Not so relevant now, but in the future, you'll need to prepare for when airlines force you to have miles in your account for 7-14 days prior to being able to make the redemption, or/have elite status with that airline.

Airlines want the cash from the pool of miles sitting in their accounts, not the banks.
As a member, it also displays more 'loyalty' to the airline.
And finally, it provides breathing room for airlines on unknown and brokered tickets.

Other dynamics in play, but that's the direction.

 

[levelnine]

Not so relevant now, but in the future, you'll need to prepare for when airlines force you to have miles in your account for 7-14 days prior to being able to make the redemption, or/have elite status with that airline.

The irony is that, as airlines have continually devalued their points, brokers are less and less interested in airline miles.

The main game in the brokering business today is buying cash tickets with bank (not airline) points, especially Amex (US) and Chase.

Consumers are also going in that direction.

So further restrictions on airline miles are only going to engender less, not more, loyalty in the biggest points market in the world (the US).