Airfares to US to drop?

[MelbFlyer]

Unless numbers are down by 30-40% or around that figure, I think a 10% fall in passenger numbers isn't a big impact.

For me personally, I'd still go to the U.S. - Trump or not. I went in 2019 during Trump 1.0, but yes, that was a different "era".

The only thing holding me back is finding business reward seats and time off that aligns. Our weak exchange rate doesn't help either.

Even looking at economy seats via QF for a random 2 week period in October - a return flight from MEL to LAX is still >$2k for economy.

 

[jyg]

Unless numbers are down by 30-40% or around that figure, I think a 10% fall in passenger numbers isn't a big impact.

For me personally, I'd still go to the U.S. - Trump or not. I went in 2019 during Trump 1.0, but yes, that was a different "era".

The only thing holding me back is finding business reward seats and time off that aligns. Our weak exchange rate doesn't help either.

Even looking at economy seats via QF for a random 2 week period in October - a return flight from MEL to LAX is still >$2k for economy.

Try connecting via Fiji, I got ADL-NAN-DFW for 1800 return in a peak holiday season (December)

 

[RSD]

QF11 Y is 70% full today according to a mate who is on the flight.

 

[elanshin]

Unless numbers are down by 30-40% or around that figure, I think a 10% fall in passenger numbers isn't a big impact.

For me personally, I'd still go to the U.S. - Trump or not. I went in 2019 during Trump 1.0, but yes, that was a different "era".

The only thing holding me back is finding business reward seats and time off that aligns. Our weak exchange rate doesn't help either.

Even looking at economy seats via QF for a random 2 week period in October - a return flight from MEL to LAX is still >$2k for economy.

March I suspect was already locked in a while ago.

The real data will be the Jul - Sep sector for the summer holidays. All travel related sectors are saying it'll be down, but just how much is the question now.

 

[clifford]

Well, I just hope that everyone that goes (and maybe benefits from lower fares) enjoys their trip and isn't subject to hassles emanating from POTUS's xenophobic rants. And, it looks like airfares from Europe to the US are down (but, hey, this is Australia, and we'll pay the higher fares come what may....)

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/trump-100-days-tourism-canada-mexico-us-b2742080.html

 

[Himeno]

Unless numbers are down by 30-40% or around that figure, I think a 10% fall in passenger numbers isn't a big impact.

For me personally, I'd still go to the U.S. - Trump or not. I went in 2019 during Trump 1.0, but yes, that was a different "era".

The only thing holding me back is finding business reward seats and time off that aligns. Our weak exchange rate doesn't help either.

Even looking at economy seats via QF for a random 2 week period in October - a return flight from MEL to LAX is still >$2k for economy.

The majority of trips taken until June would likely have been booked late last year. Most of the reports thus far have been about forward bookings, not current arrivals.
The drops in arrivals for Feb/Mar are from people who would have booked shorter trips at a later date and from trips that were able to be cancelled.
It will be the 2nd half of this year when the impact of the Trump policies enacted in Feb and March start to be felt in arrivals numbers.

 

[Forg]

The majority of trips taken until June would likely have been booked late last year. Most of the reports thus far have been about forward bookings, not current arrivals.
The drops in arrivals for Feb/Mar are from people who would have booked shorter trips at a later date and from trips that were able to be cancelled.
It will be the 2nd half of this year when the impact of the Trump policies enacted in Feb and March start to be felt in arrivals numbers.

Yes, I reckon you’re spot-on.

But I also suspect that after a few months s lot of people might get over being outraged with the entirety of the US just ‘cos 25% of them voted in a would-be dictator, and I also suspect that because reporting the same thing repeatedly doesn’t attract clicks the treatment of foreigners at US borders will fade out of immediate media (by which I mean social media as much as mainstream) attention after a few months. And that “few months” deadline is IMHO rapidly approaching, I don’t see much media but I’ll bet they’ve moved onto the next terrible thing being done to Americans already.
So I think it’s possible a decent number of sales might start popping-up in the next 2-6 weeks; but I also suspect they’ll be snapped-up pretty quickly as everything is “forgotten”.
This is just a “maybe”, mind you, I’m not “predicting” it (I’m terrible with gambling &/or predicting outcomes based on chances!).

 

[ellen10]

I have a couple of US friends, travelling to Europe ( one to France and one to Germany).

They said that twice so far their airfare prices have dropped (quite a lot) and they have received airline credits to be used within the next 12 months. They were on flexible airfares, flying Delta and United.
Some of these flights have been cancelled or changed. Apparently demand from European travellers is way down for flights to the USA for this coming summer.

 

[Quickstatus]

They said that twice so far their airfare prices have dropped

Hopefully the transpacific airfares will drop, so I can do more trips to the US, AUD/USD notwithstanding.

 

[RSD]

Hopefully the transpacific airfares will drop, so I can do more trips to the US, AUD/USD notwithstanding.

Hopefully they drop far enough that it makes SYD-LAX a good value status run! Could be a shopping trip status run too - land at LAX around 7am, shop all day then fly out again that evening. AUD-USD exchange rate will play a part in whether a one day shopping trip would be worthwhile - and how much the tariffs impact the prices over there.

 

[BrianQQ]

QF3 was around 65% full, more people on the Auckland section compared to the JFK section.

Sidenote: JFK customs without GE is a hell hole. Only one line for MPC.

 

[Quickstatus]

Could be a shopping trip status

Ive heard retail prices in US are still high

 

[jrfsp]

QF3 was around 65% full, more people on the Auckland section compared to the JFK section.

Sidenote: JFK customs without GE is a hell hole. Only one line for MPC.

Considering euro flights are running 90/95% (before peak season), would QF not be better off shifting 787 capacity to Europe. (QF10 on sunday didnt have a spare seat)

 

[burmans]

Yes, I reckon you’re spot-on.

But I also suspect that after a few months s lot of people might get over being outraged with the entirety of the US just ‘cos 25% of them voted in a would-be dictator, and I also suspect that because reporting the same thing repeatedly doesn’t attract clicks the treatment of foreigners at US borders will fade out of immediate media (by which I mean social media as much as mainstream) attention after a few months. And that “few months” deadline is IMHO rapidly approaching, I don’t see much media but I’ll bet they’ve moved onto the next terrible thing being done to Americans already.
So I think it’s possible a decent number of sales might start popping-up in the next 2-6 weeks; but I also suspect they’ll be snapped-up pretty quickly as everything is “forgotten”.
This is just a “maybe”, mind you, I’m not “predicting” it (I’m terrible with gambling &/or predicting outcomes based on chances!).

Given how much DT likes press and doesn’t seem to regards news of poor treatment of arrivals in the US (under his tough on immigration rhetoric) as bad, personally I’m not expecting these stories to go away anytime soon. It is after all one of the bedrocks of the MAGA movement.

But who knows with someone that unstable.

 

[justinbrett]

Considering euro flights are running 90/95% (before peak season), would QF not be better off shifting 787 capacity to Europe. (QF10 on sunday didnt have a spare seat)

Considering QF is selling J seats to JFK at over 20K return in June, vs about 15 for LHR, I'm going to go with no.

 

[Quickstatus]

But the question whether $20k has the passenger demand to support it. - moving forward.

 

[justinbrett]

But the question whether $20k has the passenger demand to support it. - moving forward.

Then QF drops the fare. The fact they haven’t done so indicates they’re not concerned, let alone thinking of pulling the route.

J is sold out Fri, Sat and Sun this week on QF3.

 

[elanshin]

Then QF drops the fare. The fact they haven’t done so indicates they’re not concerned, let alone thinking of pulling the route.

J is sold out Fri, Sat and Sun this week on QF3.

I suspect Sep through to February is going to be better indicators than now through to August for Transpacific from Aus.

We'll be hitting US outbound holiday season and for Aussies a lot of us have likely locked in long haul travel many months in advance.

This is a little different for say Canadians or Europeans who probably started considering their July - Sep holidays around feb/march.

But i suspect us Aussies won't be that different overall to the Canadians and Europeans. Those that need to travel for work still will and QF probably represents a solid block there. The holiday leisure market though is probably going to see a big hit.

 

[ellen10]

Briefly saw our neighbour, who was racing back to her travel agent.
They have booked a Canada/ Alaska trip in June. They applied for their Esta. Her husband has been approved and she has been refused. And they won’t tell her why. They always travel together on holidays.
Travel agent is trying to sort it out.
She is stressed to the max!

 

[DC3]

They applied for their Esta. Her husband has been approved and she has been refused. And they won’t tell her why. They always travel together on holidays.

Messing up the answers in haste?