AFF Member Stock Discussion

[Quickstatus]

This is one lever China could employ in retaliation for the tariffs.

Though if they withdrew the CNY from the Us that will just put downward pressure on the USD making US tariffs in China effectively worse

 

[Brissy1]

Star SGR lodged an asx announcement, got $300m from Bally, looks like it will survive with existing shareholders relinquishing 70% (and paying 9% interest). A good outcome under the circumstances, better than the Chinese offer.
All still subject to, approvals...blah blah

 

[drron]

Whether the stock markets go down further in the next few weeks really does not depend on what the USA does. It really depends on the reactions of other countries to the USA tariffs particularly the EU. The economic pain is much greater when there is retaliation.
China has already retaliated but that was expected as they would like to see the US economy damaged.
The real crunch comes when the EU announces new tariffs on the USA as they have threatened, The EU are real hypocrites having the highest tariffs on many countries and outright bans on many products. Remember when Brexit occurred? The EU banned our agricultural products. Fortunately the UK finally allowed them back to the UK.
So watch t he EU. My feeling is that they will increase tariffs on the USA and markets will plunge. because the USA has already promised to double up if countries retaliate. My worst fear is that the USA will exit NATO. Europe then will be in crisis and the stock markets are the least of our worries.

 

[prozac]

The real crunch comes when the EU announces new tariffs on the USA as they have threatened, The EU are real hypocrites having the highest tariffs on many countries and outright bans on many products. Remember when Brexit occurred? The EU banned our agricultural products. Fortunately the UK finally allowed them back to the UK.

Thank you, someone else that sees the reality.

 

[prozac]

What's going on with WDS. Oil is down, again, and our exchange rate is down (oil/gas is paid for in USD) yet they are just holding their head above the water level. Yes I know they have investment o/s but little or no income from these. Share price should be in the toilet.

 

[SYD]

Who is going to buy what whenever they choose to jump back in? I am thinking CSL, QUAL, MCQ and NAB but mind is far from made up

Topped up my CSL. Not a good dividend payer but hopefully returns to some decent gain.

I don’t have MQG at all unfortunately and the amount to make it worth while is probably not worth the risk in the current climate.

 

[RSD]

China has already retaliated but that was expected as they would like to see the US economy damaged.
The real crunch comes when the EU announces new tariffs on the USA as they have threatened, The EU are real hypocrites having the highest tariffs on many countries and outright bans on many products. Remember when Brexit occurred? The EU banned our agricultural products. Fortunately the UK finally allowed them back to the UK.
So watch t he EU. My feeling is that they will increase tariffs on the USA and markets will plunge. because the USA has already promised to double up if countries retaliate. My worst fear is that the will exit NATO. Europe then will be in crisis and the stock markets are the least of our worries.

The USA has given China until sometime today/tonight to remove their retaliatory 34% tariff or he is going to add an additional 50% to the China tariffs - and this morning China has said that they aren't going to remove the tariffs - so that might play out on Wall St later tonight.

I think that the EU finance ministers had meetings on the weekend, and then the EU parliament is meeting on Wednesday to vote on retaliatory measures - at this stage it is normal EU - some are cautious, some want to retaliate carefully, some don't want to retaliate at all, and Macron wants to go in all guns blazing - so who knows what they will decide on.

If the USA adds 50% to China and the EU vote for retaliation then things could go really pear-shaped. If it does then I think the index to watch is the S&P500 - I think the bottom is probably in when that gets down to around 4000 points.

 

[prozac]

Topped up my CSL. Not a good dividend payer but hopefully returns to some decent gain.

I don’t have MQG at all unfortunately and the amount to make it worth while is probably not worth the risk in the current climate.

MQG still above their 52 week low.

 

[RSD]

As far as I'm aware Canada hasn't announced their retaliation yet - and they can do things to America that don't involve tariffs like selling their crude oil elsewhere instead of feeding it down the pipeline to the U.S. - or ceasing to supply electricity to about 4 million houses in the U.S.

 

[SYD]

MQG still above their 52 week low.

Most things will be by close of session today - after yesterday! But let’s see what tomorrow has in store….

Although MQG is trading lower than it was 2yrs ago.

 

[prozac]

As far as I'm aware Canada hasn't announced their retaliation yet - and they can do things to America that don't involve tariffs like selling their crude oil elsewhere instead of feeding it down the pipeline to the U.S. - or ceasing to supply electricity to about 4 million houses in the U.S.

If Ottowa pull the electrical plug it will likely bankrupt them. From what I have read selling electricity to USA is their major income stream.
As for oil. Years ago Canada was going to build a pipeline that traversed the country West to East. It would supply oil from the oil rich western provinces to Quebec which has no oil, The TransCanada East Coast Project. They did not build it and so the pipeline still runs down to the US where it is redirected up another pipeline to supply Quebec. Canada is not in a good bargaining position.

Most things will be by close of session today - after yesterday! But let’s see what tomorrow has in store….

Although MQG is trading lower than it was 2yrs ago.

Was not predicting anything as I do not know enough, simply making an observation.

 

[RSD]

If Ottowa pull the electrical plug it will likely bankrupt them. From what I have read selling electricity to USA is their major income stream.
As for oil. Years ago Canada was going to build a pipeline that traversed the country West to East. It would supply oil from the oil rich western provinces to Quebec which has no oil, The TransCanada East Coast Project. They did not build it and so the pipeline still runs down to the US where it is redirected up another pipeline to supply Quebec. Canada is not in a good bargaining position.
View attachment 438500

They did commission the newly built Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion to British Columbia last year - it goes to a loading port and apparently they can export 890,000 barrels a day through that infrastructure that otherwise gets piped to the U.S.

 

[prozac]

They did commission the newly built Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion to British Columbia last year - it goes to a loading port and apparently they can export 890,000 barrels a day through that infrastructure that otherwise gets piped to the U.S.

I wasn't aware of that but as of this week they are saying that Quebec gets 70% of it's oil from the US.

https://www.montrealgazette.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/article862233.html

https://www.montrealgazette.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/article825365.html

 

[RSD]

I wasn't aware of that but as of this week they are saying that Quebec gets 70% of it's oil from the US.

https://www.montrealgazette.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/article862233.html

https://www.montrealgazette.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/article825365.html

There will be some pressure to change that I suspect.

 

[prozac]

There will be some pressure to change that I suspect.

Has been for some time but the underlying issue seems to be concern for the Canadian environment, one option takes a pipeline through 890(?) lakes. That makes a change.

 

[RSD]

Has been for some time but the underlying issue seems to be concern for the Canadian environment, one option takes a pipeline through 890(?) lakes. That makes a change.

Makes it an engineering challenge too - and incredibly expensive.

 

[drron]

And recent news that the EU wants talks with the USA on a free trade agreement between the EU and USA.
Though the EU still has a lot of non tariff barriers to trade.

 

[RSD]

And recent news that the EU wants talks with Trump on a free trade agreement between the EU and USA.
Though the EU still has a lot of non tariff barriers to trade.

Its going to be difficult seeing as the USA sees European VAT as a tariff rather than a sales tax - I don't like their chances of getting him to understand that he is wrong...

 

[prozac]

Its going to be difficult seeing as the USA sees European VAT as a tariff rather than a sales tax - I don't like their chances of getting him to understand that he is wrong...

They have had 37yrs to prepare for this.

 

[Quickstatus]

Its going to be difficult seeing as Trump sees European VAT as a tariff rather than a sales tax

Easier to see if you compare differential sales tax between the jurisdictions. USA does not have federal sales tax. These are only at the state levels and are virtually all lower than the 20-25%VAT in Europe.

So in a way tariffs are just a sales tax on imported goods whereas a VAT is a sales tax on everything .