ACCC action re cancelled Qantas flights

[justinbrett]

Which means 73% of us chose an airline other than a QF one.
Also note in the post below this (374) that January 24 was a drop of 0.5% compared to January 23. Continues their trend downwards.

VA went down as well.

Of course in real terms both are up 25-30% in pax numbers. Jan 23 was still in covid recovery so comparison is not all that useful other than measuring covid recovery.

There is no downwards trend.

 

[SYD]

Also note in the post below this (374) that January 24 was a drop of 0.5% compared to January 23. Continues their trend downwards.

Apart from CX and CZ, all airlines dropped, some a lot more than 0.5% eg SQ/TR 2.3%, NZ 1.1%, QR 0.8%…

I‘d put some of that down to Chinese airlines (including CX) ramping up.

 

[downgraded]

Really? Qantas and Jetstar combined carry about 27% of the traffic in and out of Australia.

Exactly, so 83.3% didn't fly Qantas. My point was simply that the

Which means 73% of us chose an airline other than a QF one.
Also note in the post below this (374) that January 24 was a drop of 0.5% compared to January 23. Continues their trend downwards.

VA went down as well.

Of course in real terms both are up 25-30% in pax numbers. Jan 23 was still in covid recovery so comparison is not all that useful other than measuring covid recovery.

There is no downwards trend.

And 83% chose a brand other than QANTAS. Just saying, never really been "everyone" behind them.

 

[justinbrett]

Exactly, so 83.3% didn't fly Qantas. My point was simply that the



And 83% chose a brand other than QANTAS. Just saying, never really been "everyone" behind them.

83% of the total traffic, not 83% of Australians (I don’t believe we have that statistic).

Anecdotally I see a higher proportion of Aussies flying on QF/VA than foreign airlines like UA/AA etc who (in that example) have more Americans.

 

[RichardMEL]

Chinese carriers finally ramping up as well as new entrants like TK and higher capacity from others like CX and SQ will make the overall market share by QF lower (and QF can't put more capacity in anytime soon bar minor adds like DRW-SIN later this year).

However the market share numbers doesn't have to mean less people are flying QF. For that, you'd have to look overall raw numbers flying QFi, which would take into account small capacity increases related to routes being geared back to ore pandemic levels, 3 extra 789 shells added during the last year, and new routes (eg SYD-AKL-JFK, finally resuming SYD-SFO).

The other potential factor that comes to mind is that outbound demand may have slowed due to cost of living pressures etc, but potentially iffset by a return of (some) tourist demand inbound post pandemic. Nowhere bear where it was specially from China of course, but likely improved Y-O-Y.

 

[SYD]

83% of the total traffic, not 83% of Australians (I don’t believe we have that statistic).

Staying OT, that coincidently is also the figure I just saw on inbound visitor numbers to NZ from Oz. ie still only 83% of pre-Covid numbers. Now, a few non Oz/NZ carriers are still MIA on the TT routes compared to pre-C, and VA only restarted 1 route and no intention of increasing based on the recent NZ/VA arrangement. But that’s a fare chunk of BoS stats for both QF/JQ and NZ.

 

[tdimdad]

The share of the top-10 has shrank a little but there are large individual variances between the airlines. In the table below, I've treated CZ as an anomaly and excluded them from the growth comparison because the mainland Chinese carriers were only restarting traffic to Australia in late 2022/early 2023 = the Jan 2023 baseline is not comparable.

CX is the only one on this list that has materially gained market share, all others are flat or down. Interestingly, QR is down a lot more than EK even when they share similarities in their geographical (Middle East) and traffic pattern (mostly through traffic) profile.

 

[Quickstatus]

73% of us chose an airline other than a QF one.

Any many do so without blinking an eyelid....

 

[drron]

VA went down as well.

Of course in real terms both are up 25-30% in pax numbers. Jan 23 was still in covid recovery so comparison is not all that useful other than measuring covid recovery.

There is no downwards trend.

You need to go back further and it is obvious that the QF group are trending down in % of passengers using their services.
1998 QF-40.5%
1999 QF-38.7%
2000 QF -37.2%
2019 QF-17.4% JQ-6,8%

So if you use 2019 numbers they are in an uptrend but of course Covid played havoc with the numbers and VA virtually had no international services and I think a fair proportion of the VA passengers may have switched to QF/JQ.

But if you go back to 1998 the loss of % of passengers is really significant. All those numbers come from the bitre Annual reports.

 

[TomVexille]

...


Yep. Didn’t stutter there. You heard that right.

Most Australians did this before the pandemic, and while Qantas’ reputation has been bruised and battered by just and unjust factors, it’s time to put the past behind and resume this support.

I'll consider supporting QF again when they start treating me and others like customers and not a nuisance. The contempt that QF have had for the Australian public over the last few years means they have a very long way to go to earn back support.

 

[justinbrett]

But if you go back to 1998 the loss of % of passengers is really significant. All those numbers come from the bitre Annual reports.

Of course, the Gulf carriers were barely flying back then. This was the decade moving from regulation to a highly competitive market. Covid didn't start until 2020 - so 2019 stats should be uneffected.

In fact if you look in recent years (2015) if anything the recent trend is up, not down:

2015 - 15.9%
2016 - 15.6%
2017 - 16.4%
2018 - 17.1%
2019 - 17.4%

Blind Freddy will tell you that the aviation market has changed dramatically in the last 20 years. Doesn't seem that long ago AJ was saying QF might cease to be an international airline and trying to merge with NZ, BA and then MH. They've certainly bounced back from that era.

Increased competition with many options of airlines is a good thing, I for one welcome it.

 

[drron]

I was talking about the increase in QF share between 2019 and Jan 23. Covid certainly affected that period.
And just maybe QF's share shot up due to pent up demand which has certainly affected award availability and pricing. I wouldn't be surprised if it does drift down further.
If the chart of passenger numbers was a share price chart I really wouldn't touch such a share. The real long term is down.

And also MH decreased their flights to Australia by 40% in 2015. When the ME airlines started flying to Australia the European airlines ceased their Australian services.
Whichever way you cut it a decrease from 40.5% by QF in 1998 to 27^% by the QF group of 27% in january 2023 is a significant drop.

 

[justinbrett]

I was talking about the increase in QF share between 2019 and Jan 23. Covid certainly affected that period.
And just maybe QF's share shot up due to pent up demand which has certainly affected award availability and pricing. I wouldn't be surprised if it does drift down further.
If the chart of passenger numbers was a share price chart I really wouldn't touch such a share. The real long term is down.

And also MH decreased their flights to Australia by 40% in 2015. When the ME airlines started flying to Australia the European airlines ceased their Australian services.
Whichever way you cut it a decrease from 40.5% by QF in 1998 to 27^% by the QF group of 27% in january 2023 is a significant drop.

Even with the reduction in market share the pax numbers are up over 35% over the last two decades. The pie is increased and there’s a lot more players and destinations.

QF’s limitation post COVID has been aircraft deliveries, not pax demand.

If we compare our neighbours NZ is doing worse, they don’t even fly to Europe now.

 

[AIRwin]

If we compare our neighbours NZ is doing worse, they don’t even fly to Europe now.

And South America

 

[drron]

Even with the reduction in market share the pax numbers are up over 35% over the last two decades. The pie is increased and there’s a lot more players and destinations.

QF’s limitation post COVID has been aircraft deliveries, not pax demand.

If we compare our neighbours NZ is doing worse, they don’t even fly to Europe now.

But a falling % of a bigger pie doesn't convince me they are on the improve. I will agree to disagree with you.

 

[SYD]

But a falling % of a bigger pie doesn't convince me they are on the improve. I will agree to disagree with you.

An increasing pie and no spare seats to throw at it must be driving QFi management batty. I wonder if someone is regretting mothballing 2x A380s along with the obvious frustration of not doing a mainline fleet renewal years ago…

 

[eminere]

I wonder if someone is regretting mothballing 2x A380s along with the obvious frustration of not doing a mainline fleet renewal years ago…

And also the conversion of two passenger A332s to freighters.

 

[SYD]

And also the conversion of two passenger A332s to freighters.

Oh, yes. Forgot about those!

 

[jase05]

And also the conversion of two passenger A332s to freighters.

With the money they make from freight I’m sure they aren’t regretting it. If anything by we are still short of freighters

 

[RichardMEL]

Need to factor in QF's share of available seats out vs the rest.

As noted above, 25 years ago QF had 40% market share because the available capacity was much higher of the total.. eg no multiple ME3 380s, chinese carriers(in the main) and even the US carriers were mostly not a factor (ie it was only UA at that point and only daily 747s to SYD and MEL at the peak. No LCCs like JQ, AirAsua, Scoot etc.

So QFs market share of pax needs to take into account in relation to their share of available seats imo.