Seat occupancy lower

[kangarooflyer88]

Just thought I'd add a recent interview uncle Alan gave to CNN a few days ago regarding the state of Qantas in general, and specifically to the point of load factors which I suspect may be relevant for this discussion. In particular by June he is expecting QF's domestic demand to be 113% of pre-COVID levels and JQ about 120% of pre-COVID levels. He's also expecting to see airfares rise about 7% to cope with rising fuel prices, which to me means you should go out and get booking for this year and next while the good gets good (i.e. classic award seats remain and QF has their million seat sale):

-RooFlyer88

 

[Scr77]

Uncle Alan better turn a profit with higher occupancy, higher fares to cover fuel and no staff to answer phones or issue tickets.

 

[serfty]

On QFd flights, there can be staff deadheading in J, so not every occupied seat necessarily has a revenue-generating traveller.

A friend who travels extensively says he's regularly seen from one to as many as five in the J cabin. Of course, some flights wouldn't have any.

I was referring to QFi; I have not been monitoring QFd Business cabins as I have had little interest.

In the case of employee off duty travel, staff can generally only access business seats just a short time before boarding (often after check in closes and when there are unsold seats).

The international cabins are generaly filling up in the days before leaving very few seats available on the day of travel.

Based on that I would be confident that any such employee off duty travel taking seats would be rare at the moment.

 

[jakeseven7]

Just thought I'd add a recent interview uncle Alan gave to CNN a few days ago regarding the state of Qantas in general, and specifically to the point of load factors which I suspect may be relevant for this discussion. In particular by June he is expecting QF's domestic demand to be 113% of pre-COVID levels and JQ about 120% of pre-COVID levels. He's also expecting to see airfares rise about 7% to cope with rising fuel prices, which to me means you should go out and get booking for this year and next while the good gets good (i.e. classic award seats remain and QF has their million seat sale):

-RooFlyer88

Good.

We were in a situation (previously posted on here) when booking what I would say is a reasonably pedestrian route to Tassie that QF were literally sold out weeks in advance despite operating the same / more flights as pre-covid.

I honestly don’t know where all these people are coming from flying at the moment?! Pent up demand?!

Anyway we have a direct line into QF via our acc manager and needed 20 seats and they ended up putting another flight on (not saying we tipped the see saw, I’m sure they were about to anyway).

It’s getting very busy out there now. Corporates are coming back big time.

My goodness look at the budget week loadings. Insane.

 

[albatross710]

presumably as any and all who requested are upgraded with points, thereby extracting as much revenue, notional or otherwise from a flight as possible.

well isn't that the goal of a commercial enterprise?

 

[serfty]

well isn't that the goal of a commercial enterprise?

Well not exactly in this case. If you have WP, SG, PS or even NB and can book the cheapest upgradeable fare and be virtually assured of being upgraded, why book a business fare?

If these circumstances continue it may end up costing revenue.

 

[Melburnian1]

Just thought I'd add a recent interview uncle Alan gave to CNN a few days ago regarding the state of Qantas in general, and specifically to the point of load factors which I suspect may be relevant for this discussion. In particular by June he is expecting QF's domestic demand to be 113% of pre-COVID levels and JQ about 120% of pre-COVID levels. He's also expecting to see airfares rise about 7% to cope with rising fuel prices, which to me means you should go out and get booking for this year and next while the good gets good (i.e. classic award seats remain and QF has their million seat sale):

-RooFlyer88

Forecasts are difficult and he's paid to be 'sunny' about travel (otherwise his aspiring passengers might think twice about committing) but he's had a very poor record with his predictions in the last couple of years re loadings.

 

[jakeseven7]

Forecasts are difficult and he's paid to be 'sunny' about travel (otherwise his aspiring passengers might think twice about committing) but he's had a very poor record with his predictions in the last couple of years re loadings.

Yes man I wish airlines could have forecast the pandemic better and also forecasted ludicrous Government border restrictions better. So annoying.

 

[kangarooflyer88]

Yes man I wish airlines could have forecast the pandemic better and also forecasted ludicrous Government border restrictions better. So annoying.

Hard to predict the effects of a once in a century global pandemic and we also aren't out of the woods yet. Is Alan's predictions optimistic? Perhaps, but remember as Chief Executive he has to convince investors that the future is bright. I would also challenge anyone to cite a single airline which accurately predicted load volumes or how the pandemic was progressing accurately. In any event, here's to hoping this COVID nonsense goes away or at a bare minimum remains roughly at the status quo. Whilst I can't speak for the community, I will say that I'm getting sick and tired of these damn restrictions, and have booked more travel in the next 6 months than I have in my life to relieve myself of the pent up demand from being grounded in Sydney for close to 2 years now!

-RooFlyer88

 

[TheInsider]

Does anyone know if the full domestic fleet is now back in the air? They really need to add some flights on some routes…

Their aim is to increase load factors first and then add flights later on.

 

[Melburnian1]

The first QF20 to depart MNL for SYD in a long time tonight appears to have at least 114 whY passengers travelling in the 243 seat cabin, so seat occupancy may be under 50 per cent. This 'new' daily flight is to become an A333 from tomorrow except on Sundays. Maybe that's because maintenance needs to be scheduled?

Interesting that this route has recommenced as a daily yet SYD - BKK by QFi remains at only 4x/week. Loadings northbound seem to have been very poor to BKK, which I'm guessing is linked to harsher entry requirements for Thailand, compared to Philippines that from 10 February 2022 made these much easier (although allegedly local LGAs may have additional restrictions, a bit like WA still isn't allowing some activities).

 

[pauly7]

Their aim is to increase load factors first and then add flights later on.

But do you actually know the answer?

 

[Melburnian1]

But do you actually know the answer?

The Airfleets website claims only VH-VXJ, VXL and VXM are stabled of the B738 QFd fleet.

Identically, three A332s are apparently sitting on tarmacs or otherwise not being used.

If we look at individual aircraft, many seem underutlised compared to the block hours typically undertaken prior to the COVID situation. To do the best possible compraison we'd need access to what was flown on a Monday in late March 2019. Because the date of Easter isn't fixed, that may be 'apples for oranges'.

 

[lc_461]

Flew OOL-CBR today (VA). Totally full in Y and J. Security an absolute zoo, just like school holidays with VA and JQ/QF flights looking to be every hour to SYD and almost certainly going out full.

Quite a few 'suits' for a leisure route (probably federal budget related), but heaps of families, so i'd say widespread pent up demand for business and leisure travel / less worry for covid is occuring..

 

[Melburnian1]

Flew OOL-CBR today (VA). Totally full in Y and J. Security an absolute zoo, just like school holidays with VA and JQ/QF flights looking to be every hour to SYD and almost certainly going out full.

Quite a few 'suits' for a leisure route (probably federal budget related), but heaps of families, so i'd say widespread pent up demand for business and leisure travel / less worry for covid is occuring..

Yes, there's always many travelling to CBR for pre or post-Budget love-ins with (name your favourite) party or MP/Senator.

Plus (of course) it's a Parliamentary sitting week so that substantially builds numbers.

 

[Melburnian1]

On Mother's Day, Sunday 8 May 2022, QF23 from SYD to BKK has just 98 (of 269 seats) booked in whY. For this cabin, 36.43 per cent of seats that are occupied.

While J travellers' expensive fares and what could be highly profitable freight must be added to revenue, it's unlikely this flight is returning a net profit once corporate ('head office') costs are allocated, plus maintenance costs and ground handling as well as airport fees.

No wonder QFi hasn't resumed daily flights to BKK. While its flight frequency at four per week is the same from SYD as TG, the latter has 348 seats available per B773ER while QF's A333s are 297 seats a trip. TG also flies four times a week from MEL while QF subsidiary JQi only has three flights weekly from there.

It isn't high season any longer, but given Thai entry requirements were further relaxed on 1 May 2022, it's surprising that the QFi flights to BKK continue to have so few economy class users. Perhaps many who previously went to Thialand dislike the requirement to have travel insurance?

The typically better loading SYD - MNL with QF19's A333 has been reduced given Easter and school holidays are finished to four days a week. Yet competitor PR flies five times a week from each of SYD and MEL, and twice weekly from BNE, although the MEL flights are smaller A321s until July and BNE is always that, while SYD can be a mix of A333s (twice weekly at present) and A321s (3x/wk).

And QFi still hasn't resumed flights to 'closed' Japan yet JL and NH make regular appearances on the Australia - Japan routes.

 

[TheInsider]

And QFi still hasn't resumed flights to 'closed' Japan yet JL and NH make regular appearances on the Australia - Japan routes.

And why would they if it is still closed?

 

[Melburnian1]

And why would they if it is still closed?

Because QFi doesn't just derive business from the Australian end - there'll be many Australian expats in Japan who may wish to travel to Oz, and Japanese citizens (or other foreigners) wanting to travel to Oz for VFR, holidays or on business. Plus there's lots of air freight between Oz and Japan, and a supposed shortage of freighters.

What this suggests is QFi has a weak market position on many of these Asian routes (not just Japan), perhaps best exemplified on the Singapore routes where SQ thrashes QFi for seating capacity and frequency. (And, although subjective, one might add 'service').

 

[justinbrett]

Because QFi doesn't just derive business from the Australian end - there'll be many Australian expats in Japan who may wish to travel to Oz, and Japanese citizens (or other foreigners) wanting to travel to Oz for VFR, holidays or on business. Plus there's lots of air freight between Oz and Japan, and a supposed shortage of freighters.

What this suggests is QFi has a weak market position on many of these Asian routes (not just Japan), perhaps best exemplified on the Singapore routes where SQ thrashes QFi for seating capacity and frequency. (And, although subjective, one might add 'service').

What a ridiculous argument.

For one, Qantas group is operating dedicated freight services into Japan, so you’re completely wrong on that point.

Why, when Qantas has exhausted it’s long haul fleet to near 100% utilisation, would they prioritise to a location not open for regular visitors? Especially when they have a oneworld parter operating the route. Just a crazy thing to say. Put your assets into North America and Europe which is where most Aussies want to go right now.

Honestly…

 

[jase05]

For one, Qantas group is operating dedicated freight services into Japan,

Not enough though unfortunately