Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

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33kft said:
Bit of an odd question. There has always been the expectation that a state would take control of its own outbreaks. When has NSW introduced or retained restrictions within NSW in response to another state's outbreaks?

Border closures and travel restrictions are one thing, but local restrictions for outbreaks in another state and no cases or exposures locally? Should SA be going into lockdown on account of NSW's deteriorating situation?
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Keeping some restrictions in place is not the same as a lockdown. Greater Sydney is in lockdown but unlike Vic, NSW has left the regional areas with only restrictions in place and no lockdown. If you go by what Vic say when it comes to the virus spread into the regions how has NSW regional areas mostly kept the virus spread out.
 
hydrabyss said:
Keeping some restrictions in place is not the same as a lockdown.
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Regardless, there's no precedence for it, and if there weren't restrictions already then you'd be introducing them, so I'm wondering what you think the trigger is for an adjacent state to introduce or retain restrictions locally when another state has an outbreak, and why we wouldn't be worrying about QLD or SA not responding to NSW's outbreak right now by introducing restrictions (relative to the NSW outbreak, not relative to the local QLD cases currently)?

I mean, it sounds a lot like asking why didn't VIC predict the future to me. You'd have had stricter restrictions within VIC which is 7 hours away by road than you have today in the ACT, totally enveloped by NSW. How would that have been explained to the 6.7 million affected Victorians? Genuinely curious. Would you have had the restrictions run until Sydney's lockdown is over, or would you have guessed some maskless removalists would have crossed into the state around the time they did?
 
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hydrabyss said:
how has NSW regional areas mostly kept the virus spread out.
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Luck. You only have to read this forum to know that people have been moving between Greater Sydney and the Regions, and in the media plenty of examples including the daughter of the Deputy Premier.

That removalist truck that went to Melbourne could just as easily been delivering to Dubbo.
 
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hydrabyss said:
Keeping some restrictions in place is not the same as a lockdown. Greater Sydney is in lockdown but unlike Vic, NSW has left the regional areas with only restrictions in place and no lockdown. If you go by what Vic say when it comes to the virus spread into the regions how has NSW regional areas mostly kept the virus spread out.
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If it isn't pure luck, how do you think regional NSW has so far remained OK?

If the removalists has gone from Sydney - Newcastle - Port Macquarie - Tamworth - Dubbo - Orange do you think regional NSW would be in the same position?
 
jakeseven7 said:
Im sniffing this probably means the Sydney outbreak will put Melbourne into at least 14 days of lockdown…
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I notice yesterday that they were using the term "exposure days".

With cases infecting people, who then infect other people within 48 hours (possibly less) it makes it much, much harder to get to people before they can infect others.

  • 8th Removalist infect 60's Man
  • 10th 60's man infect multiple people on the 12th (not sure the date he visited his parents) - unknow yet are cases from his tram and train trips
  • By the 12th other are infected from those infected on the 10th.
  • And repeat

Plus no doubt others infected will becoming positive and infectious at later than 48hours. There is that initial headstart that spread from 60's man had that needs to now be overcome.

So huge testing is vital, as is that all close contact, and their close contacts all test and isolate as quickly as possible after any case is found. This was important in the past, but is absolutely vital now in order to get in front of the virus spread and to limit the exposure days.

It also most like means that more use needs to be made of the requirement to get tested immediately and quarantine for 14 days from the exposure for not just that close contact but all of there close contacts.

For the second ring the isolate till a negative test result may too leaky, and the consequence of missing links (by say someone become positive after the test) is now much more severe.


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bcworld said:
If it isn't pure luck, how do you think regional NSW has so far remained OK?

If the removalists has gone from Sydney - Newcastle - Port Macquarie - Tamworth - Dubbo - Orange do you think regional NSW would be in the same position?
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Who's to say that other removalists haven't done just that? There's very much chance involved but I think also that Covid favours indoor situations with plenty of people. Happier in a Melbourne apartment block than a SA house.
 
nutwood said:
Who's to say that other removalists haven't done just that? There's very much chance involved but I think also that Covid favours indoor situations with plenty of people. Happier in a Melbourne apartment block than a SA house.
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Yes lift and corridors in the apartment building may have poor ventilation and so could yes be a factor.


I think another factor is that just as some people spread the virus more easily, that other people are probably more prone to getting infected.

The apartment building also had a bigger pool of people who could get infected. Of note is that the actual client has not yet become infected
 
nutwood said:
Who's to say that other removalists haven't done just that? There's very much chance involved but I think also that Covid favours indoor situations with plenty of people. Happier in a Melbourne apartment block than a SA house.
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Even if so - what's the relevance? The original poster was asking why Melbourne didn't retain restrictions in order to avoid the incursion. Apart from the fact that only a small percentage of Melbourne dwellings are high density, it's also a long way from the infected LGAs. There are border controls and if they had been followed it wouldn't have happened.

Their follow-up question was why was regional NSW affected. Sure, lower density dwellings may be the answer, but luck could be as well. What if the removalists were heading to an essential business in regional NSW? The whole subject just seems absurd to me - luck is absolutely a factor as you need a combination of people breaking the rules (coming from a red zone - although some are exempt or approved, meanwhile visiting places they shouldn't/dining in/etc and not wearing a mask), who happen to be highly infectious and then doing it in a setting that contributes to the spread.
 
33kft said:
Border closures and travel restrictions are one thing, but local restrictions for outbreaks in another state and no cases or exposures locally?
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FWIW, Tasmania ( no community cases for about a year from fallible memory) has started tightening things just a little, in expectation that Delta will inevitably appear. For instance yesterday, announced that Victorian Arrivals since 8 July ( before ban a few days ago) have to wear masks outside and shouldn't go to large venues. QR code use for everyone tightened a week ago.
 
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